1. FC Köln 2-2 Bayer Leverkusen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bayer Leverkusen at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bayer Leverkusen make the trip to RheinEnergieStadion to face 1. FC Köln in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Sunday 24 October 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
1. FC Köln's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D D D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Köln, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Köln's home record at RheinEnergieStadion: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bayer Leverkusen have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bayer Leverkusen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Bayer Leverkusen have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — 1. FC Köln lead 0W to 2W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 17 Apr 2021, ended 0–3 with Bayer Leverkusen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
1. FC Köln — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Bayer Leverkusen — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Köln 64% and Bayer Leverkusen 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Köln 60% | Bayer Leverkusen 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Köln 1.29 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Köln attack 1.009 / defence 1.034 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.442 / defence 0.751. League average goals — home 1.709 / away 1.271. Bayer Leverkusen's defence strength of 0.751 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Bayer Leverkusen have an above-average attack strength of 1.442 — the away xG of 1.90 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 42 1. FC Köln games / 42 Bayer Leverkusen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 24% | Draw 27% | Bayer Leverkusen 49%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Köln 4.17 | Draw 3.70 | Bayer Leverkusen 2.04. Bayer Leverkusen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.29 / 1.90) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bayer Leverkusen as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bayer Leverkusen if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.19 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Köln 80% | Bayer Leverkusen 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: RheinEnergieStadion • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Oct 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 24% | Draw 27% | Bayer Leverkusen 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG 1. FC Köln 1.29 / Bayer Leverkusen 1.90 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Köln attack 1.009 / def 1.034 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.442 / def 0.751 | league avg home 1.709 / away 1.271 • Poisson stance: Bayer Leverkusen (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
1. FC Köln xG
Expected Goals
1.90
Bayer Leverkusen xG
64%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen kick off?
1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 24 October 2021 at RheinEnergieStadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen?
1. FC Köln 2 - 2 Bayer Leverkusen.
Where is 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen being played?
The match is being played at RheinEnergieStadion.
What competition is 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen part of?
1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Köln a 24% chance of winning, Bayer Leverkusen a 49% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bayer Leverkusen the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both 1. FC Köln and Bayer Leverkusen will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and Bayer Leverkusen?
Record (2 meetings): 1. FC Köln 0W | Draws 0 | Bayer Leverkusen 2W.
What form are 1. FC Köln and Bayer Leverkusen in?
1. FC Köln (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-D-W-L. Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates 1. FC Köln's attack at 1.01x the league average against Bayer Leverkusen's defence at 0.75x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bayer Leverkusen's attack (1.44x) against 1. FC Köln's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.90.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen Win
24%
4.19
27%
3.73
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
1. FC Köln xG
Total xG
3.19
1.90
Bayer Leverkusen xG
4.19
24%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.77
Clean Sheet
15%
6.66
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
4%
27.89
14%
7.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 7.8 | 7.4 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 10.1 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are 1. FC Köln and Bayer Leverkusen expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for 1. FC Köln and 1.90 for Bayer Leverkusen, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
1. FC Köln come into this having played 42 games, going 12W 12D 18L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-W-L. The sample for 1. FC Köln is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bayer Leverkusen sit at 1.62 PPG from 42 outings (19W 11D 12L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Bayer Leverkusen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bayer Leverkusen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of 1. FC Köln — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
1. FC Köln's home form reads 6W 6D 9L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.14 PPG return.
Away from home, Bayer Leverkusen have taken 1.57 points per game from 21 outings (9W 6D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bayer Leverkusen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
1. FC Köln are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Bayer Leverkusen are on 1.76 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Köln have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Köln
Blended
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Köln and Bayer Leverkusen in coming into this match?
1. FC Köln have gone 12W 12D 18L in their last 42 games (1.14 PPG), while Bayer Leverkusen have gone 19W 11D 12L in their last 42 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Köln at home or Bayer Leverkusen away?
Bayer Leverkusen's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Köln at home: 1.14 PPG; Bayer Leverkusen away: 1.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Bayer Leverkusen have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bayer Leverkusen won 0-4 on 16 Dec 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Köln have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bayer Leverkusen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
1. FC Köln
1
Draws
7
Bayer Leverkusen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and Bayer Leverkusen?
From 10 meetings on record, 1. FC Köln have won 2, Bayer Leverkusen have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Köln and Bayer Leverkusen last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when 1. FC Köln 1-2 Bayer Leverkusen.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Köln and Bayer Leverkusen?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
1. FC Köln see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Köln 71%, Bayer Leverkusen 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (1. FC Köln) and 48% (Bayer Leverkusen).
On the defensive side: Bayer Leverkusen in 38%; Bayer Leverkusen in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Köln home games / Bayer Leverkusen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Köln play Bayer Leverkusen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of 1. FC Köln's games and 43% of Bayer Leverkusen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of 1. FC Köln's recent games and 48% of Bayer Leverkusen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do 1. FC Köln and Bayer Leverkusen tend to score early?
1. FC Köln have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Bayer Leverkusen in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1. FC Köln and Bayer Leverkusen share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at RheinEnergieStadion, Regular Season - 9, as 1. FC Köln and Bayer Leverkusen drew 2-2 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Köln 1.29 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.90 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Köln attack 1.01 / defence 1.03 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.44 / defence 0.75, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Köln 24% | Draw 27% | Bayer Leverkusen 49%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Köln 60%, Bayer Leverkusen 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Köln's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.