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Poisson model rates 1. FC Heidenheim at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hamburger SV fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 21 as 1. FC Heidenheim welcome Hamburger SV to Voith-Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 February 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, 1. FC Heidenheim stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Heidenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, 1. FC Heidenheim have posted 2W 3D 5L at Voith-Arena — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Hamburger SV have recorded 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hamburger SV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hamburger SV's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (1. FC Heidenheim) versus 1.10 (Hamburger SV). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Hamburger SV have the better historical record — 3 wins from 5 previous contests against 0 for 1. FC Heidenheim.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2025, ended 1–2 with Hamburger SV winning.
It is worth noting that Hamburger SV have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
1. FC Heidenheim trading profile (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Hamburger SV trading profile (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Heidenheim 51% versus Hamburger SV 62%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (1. FC Heidenheim 64% | Hamburger SV 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Heidenheim 1.34 xG and Hamburger SV 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.725 / defence 1.328 | Hamburger SV attack 0.582 / defence 1.134. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.461. 1. FC Heidenheim's attack strength of 0.725 is below the league average — the 1.34 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 54 1. FC Heidenheim games / 19 Hamburger SV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 40% | Draw 31% | Hamburger SV 30%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Heidenheim 2.50 | Draw 3.23 | Hamburger SV 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates 1. FC Heidenheim as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1. FC Heidenheim offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Heidenheim 60% | Hamburger SV 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hamburger SV | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Voith-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Feb 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (5 meetings): 1. FC Heidenheim 0W | Draws 2 | Hamburger SV 3W • Goals trend: 2.40 goals/game | Total H2H goals: 1. FC Heidenheim 4 – 8 Hamburger SV • H2H markets: BTTS 40% | Over 2.5 40% | Win rates: 1. FC Heidenheim 0% / Draw 40% / Hamburger SV 60% • Historical edge: Hamburger SV dominant — 3W from 5 meetings (60% win rate) • H2H vs Poisson divergence: H2H favours Hamburger SV (historical win rate 60%) but Poisson model rates 1. FC Heidenheim as more likely (home 40% / draw 31% / away 30%) — current season form and strength ratings are overriding the historical pattern • Goals: H2H average 2.40/game (40% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.47 (45% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 40%, Poisson probability 52% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• 1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-D-L-L • Hamburger SV (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-D-D • 1. FC Heidenheim home split: 0.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | CS 0 • Hamburger SV away split: 0.30 PPG from 10 | GF 0.60 / GA 2.10 | CS 3 • Form edge: minimal separation (1. FC Heidenheim 0.80 PPG vs Hamburger SV 1.10 PPG) • xG vs form (1. FC Heidenheim): Poisson projects 1.34 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.00 — model rates them higher than raw form suggests, likely reflecting a strong defence-adjusted attack strength • xG vs form (Hamburger SV): Poisson projects 1.13 xG vs form scoring rate of 0.60 — model rates visitors higher than form alone implies, noting a favourable attack-vs-defence matchup • Goals margin: form ~1.9 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.47 (45% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~55% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 52% — no strong positional edge
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 40% | Draw 31% | Hamburger SV 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 52% | xG 1. FC Heidenheim 1.34 / Hamburger SV 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.725 / def 1.328 | Hamburger SV attack 0.582 / def 1.134 | league avg home 1.635 / away 1.461 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Heidenheim (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Hamburger SV xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hamburger SV kick off?
1. FC Heidenheim vs Hamburger SV kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 7 February 2026 at Voith-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hamburger SV?
1. FC Heidenheim 0 - 2 Hamburger SV.
Where is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hamburger SV being played?
The match is being played at Voith-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hamburger SV part of?
1. FC Heidenheim vs Hamburger SV is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hamburger SV?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Heidenheim a 40% chance of winning, Hamburger SV a 30% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Heidenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hamburger SV?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both 1. FC Heidenheim and Hamburger SV will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hamburger SV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and Hamburger SV?
• Record (5 meetings): 1. FC Heidenheim 0W | Draws 2 | Hamburger SV 3W • Goals trend: 2.40 goals/game | Total H2H goals: 1. FC Heidenheim 4 – 8 Hamburger SV • H2H markets: BTTS 40% | Over 2.5 40% | Win rates: 1. FC Heidenheim 0% / Draw 40% / Hamburger SV 60% • Historical edge: Hamburger SV dominant — 3W from 5 meetings (60% win rate) • H2H vs Poisson divergence: H2H favours Hamburger SV (historical win rate 60%) but Poisson model rates 1. FC Heidenheim as more likely (home 40% / draw 31% / away 30%) — current season form and strength ratings are overriding the historical pattern • Goals: H2H average 2.40/game (40% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.47 (45% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 40%, Poisson probability 52% — no strong aligned signal
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and Hamburger SV in?
• 1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-D-L-L • Hamburger SV (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-D-D • 1. FC Heidenheim home split: 0.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | CS 0 • Hamburger SV away split: 0.30 PPG from 10 | GF 0.60 / GA 2.10 | CS 3 • Form edge: minimal separation (1. FC Heidenheim 0.80 PPG vs Hamburger SV 1.10 PPG) • xG vs form (1. FC Heidenheim): Poisson projects 1.34 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.00 — model rates them higher than raw form suggests, likely reflecting a strong defence-adjusted attack strength • xG vs form (Hamburger SV): Poisson projects 1.13 xG vs form scoring rate of 0.60 — model rates visitors higher than form alone implies, noting a favourable attack-vs-defence matchup • Goals margin: form ~1.9 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.47 (45% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~55% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 52% — no strong positional edge
What do the betting odds say about 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hamburger SV?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture