Werder Bremen 1-4 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 40% as Werder Bremen take on SC Paderborn 07.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Werder Bremen host SC Paderborn 07 at wohninvest WESERSTADION in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 15 August 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Werder Bremen — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Werder Bremen have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Werder Bremen have posted 1W 4D 5L at wohninvest WESERSTADION — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, SC Paderborn 07 stand at 0W 2D 0L from 2 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. SC Paderborn 07 have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour SC Paderborn 07 — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.00 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Werder Bremen 0.87 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Werder Bremen attack 0.952 / defence 1.147 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.704 / defence 1.028. League average goals — home 0.891 / away 1.282. Data: 2 Werder Bremen games / 2 SC Paderborn 07 games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Werder Bremen 26% | Draw 40% | SC Paderborn 07 35%. Fair-value odds: Werder Bremen 3.85 | Draw 2.50 | SC Paderborn 07 2.86. The draw (40%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 40% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 26% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.91 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: wohninvest WESERSTADION • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Aug 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Werder Bremen 26% | Draw 40% | SC Paderborn 07 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 42% | xG Werder Bremen 0.87 / SC Paderborn 07 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Werder Bremen attack 0.952 / def 1.147 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.704 / def 1.028 | league avg home 0.891 / away 1.282 • Poisson stance: Draw (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Werder Bremen xG
Expected Goals
1.04
SC Paderborn 07 xG
42%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 15 August 2021 at wohninvest WESERSTADION.
What was the final score in Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07?
Werder Bremen 1 - 4 SC Paderborn 07.
Where is Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at wohninvest WESERSTADION.
What competition is Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives Werder Bremen a 26% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 35% chance, and a 40% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Werder Bremen and SC Paderborn 07 will score (BTTS).
Will Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and SC Paderborn 07?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Werder Bremen and SC Paderborn 07 in?
Werder Bremen (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-L-D-W. SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 0W-2D-0L in 2 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Werder Bremen's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against SC Paderborn 07's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.87. The same calculation in reverse, SC Paderborn 07's attack versus Werder Bremen's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
26%
3.87
40%
2.52
35%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Werder Bremen xG
Total xG
1.91
1.04
SC Paderborn 07 xG
3.87
26%
Home win
2.52
40%
Draw
2.90
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.41
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
42%
2.39
Win to Nil
9%
10.91
14%
6.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.8 | 15.4 | 8.0 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.4 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.6%.
How many goals are Werder Bremen and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Werder Bremen and 1.04 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Werder Bremen come into this having played 2 games, going 1W 1D 0L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-W. It's still early in the season for Werder Bremen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, SC Paderborn 07 sit at 1.00 PPG from 2 outings (0W 2D 0L), a run that reads D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Werder Bremen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of SC Paderborn 07 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Werder Bremen are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; SC Paderborn 07 are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Werder Bremen's scoring rate against SC Paderborn 07's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Werder Bremen have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games.
Defensively: SC Paderborn 07 in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Werder Bremen
Early Season
SC Paderborn 07
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Werder Bremen and SC Paderborn 07 in coming into this match?
Werder Bremen have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 games (2.00 PPG), while SC Paderborn 07 have gone 0W 2D 0L in their last 2 (1.00 PPG).
Have Werder Bremen or SC Paderborn 07 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Werder Bremen have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, SC Paderborn 07 in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Werder Bremen
0
Draws
1
SC Paderborn 07
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and SC Paderborn 07?
From 2 meetings on record, Werder Bremen have won 1, SC Paderborn 07 have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Werder Bremen and SC Paderborn 07 last play each other?
They last met on 22 January 2022, when SC Paderborn 07 3-4 Werder Bremen.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Werder Bremen home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Werder Bremen play SC Paderborn 07?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Werder Bremen's games and 50% of SC Paderborn 07's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Werder Bremen's recent games and 50% of SC Paderborn 07's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant SC Paderborn 07 run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Werder Bremen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Paderborn 07 beat Werder Bremen 1-4 at wohninvest WESERSTADION, Regular Season - 3, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Werder Bremen 0.87 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.04 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. SC Paderborn 07 outscored their 1.04 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Werder Bremen attack 0.95 / defence 1.15 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.70 / defence 1.03, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Werder Bremen 26% | Draw 40% | SC Paderborn 07 35%, with the draw its most likely call at 40%. The actual SC Paderborn 07 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Werder Bremen 50%, SC Paderborn 07 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Werder Bremen arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with SC Paderborn 07 winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Werder Bremen managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SC Paderborn 07 scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.