Werder Bremen 3-0 1. FC Heidenheim – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates 1. FC Heidenheim at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Werder Bremen vs 1. FC Heidenheim encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
wohninvest WESERSTADION plays host to Werder Bremen versus 1. FC Heidenheim in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Friday 1 October 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Werder Bremen (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Werder Bremen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Werder Bremen's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 games at wohninvest WESERSTADION this term (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.50 lags behind their overall 1.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at wohninvest WESERSTADION this season.
1. FC Heidenheim have collected 1.88 PPG across 8 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 3D 1L. Last five: L D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.25 per game is modest, conceding 0.75 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.75 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Heidenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Heidenheim's form when playing away from home: 2W 0D 1L across 3 road games this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. 1. FC Heidenheim are 0.78 PPG clear of Werder Bremen in recent 2. Bundesliga fixtures (1.88 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Werder Bremen have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, 1. FC Heidenheim in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Werder Bremen — key trading statistics (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games; they fail to score in 38% of games.
1. FC Heidenheim — key trading statistics (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Werder Bremen 38% versus 1. FC Heidenheim 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Werder Bremen 62% | 1. FC Heidenheim 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Werder Bremen 1.25 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Werder Bremen attack 0.966 / defence 1.198 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.913 / defence 1.200. League average goals — home 1.081 / away 1.461. Data: 8 Werder Bremen games / 8 1. FC Heidenheim games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Werder Bremen 27% | Draw 30% | 1. FC Heidenheim 43%. Fair-value odds: Werder Bremen 3.70 | Draw 3.33 | 1. FC Heidenheim 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.25 / 1.60) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, 1. FC Heidenheim are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on 1. FC Heidenheim if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.85 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Werder Bremen 60% | 1. FC Heidenheim 67% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Werder Bremen vs 1. FC Heidenheim | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: wohninvest WESERSTADION • Kick-off: Friday 1 Oct 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Werder Bremen 27% | Draw 30% | 1. FC Heidenheim 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 60% | xG Werder Bremen 1.25 / 1. FC Heidenheim 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Werder Bremen attack 0.966 / def 1.198 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.913 / def 1.200 | league avg home 1.081 / away 1.461 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Heidenheim (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Werder Bremen xG
Expected Goals
1.60
1. FC Heidenheim xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Werder Bremen vs 1. FC Heidenheim kick off?
Werder Bremen vs 1. FC Heidenheim kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 1 October 2021 at wohninvest WESERSTADION.
What was the final score in Werder Bremen vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Werder Bremen 3 - 0 1. FC Heidenheim.
Where is Werder Bremen vs 1. FC Heidenheim being played?
The match is being played at wohninvest WESERSTADION.
What competition is Werder Bremen vs 1. FC Heidenheim part of?
Werder Bremen vs 1. FC Heidenheim is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Werder Bremen vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our statistical model gives Werder Bremen a 27% chance of winning, 1. FC Heidenheim a 43% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Heidenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in Werder Bremen vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Werder Bremen and 1. FC Heidenheim will score (BTTS).
Will Werder Bremen vs 1. FC Heidenheim have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and 1. FC Heidenheim?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Werder Bremen and 1. FC Heidenheim in?
Werder Bremen (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. 1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 4W-3D-1L in 8 | 1.88 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 0.75 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Werder Bremen's attack at 0.97x the league average against 1. FC Heidenheim's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — 1. FC Heidenheim's attack (0.91x) against Werder Bremen's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.60.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (7.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Heidenheim Win
27%
3.64
30%
3.37
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Werder Bremen xG
Total xG
2.85
1.60
1. FC Heidenheim xG
3.64
27%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
20%
4.94
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
6%
17.99
12%
8.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 9.2 | 7.4 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.6 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.3 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Werder Bremen vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Werder Bremen and 1. FC Heidenheim expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Werder Bremen and 1.60 for 1. FC Heidenheim, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Werder Bremen vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Werder Bremen's recent record stands at 3W 2D 3L from 8 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Werder Bremen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
1. FC Heidenheim, meanwhile, have gone 4W 3D 1L across 8 games — 1.88 PPG, with L-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for 1. FC Heidenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours 1. FC Heidenheim by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Werder Bremen heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Werder Bremen have managed 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
1. FC Heidenheim's away record stands at 2W 0D 1L across 3 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Heidenheim come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Werder Bremen are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Heidenheim are on 1.25 scored and 0.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Heidenheim in 62%.
Defensively: Werder Bremen have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Werder Bremen
Blended
1. FC Heidenheim
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Werder Bremen and 1. FC Heidenheim in coming into this match?
Werder Bremen have gone 3W 2D 3L in their last 8 games (1.38 PPG), while 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 4W 3D 1L in their last 8 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Werder Bremen at home or 1. FC Heidenheim away?
1. FC Heidenheim's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Werder Bremen at home: 1.00 PPG; 1. FC Heidenheim away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Werder Bremen or 1. FC Heidenheim been keeping clean sheets recently?
Werder Bremen have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, 1. FC Heidenheim in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — 2. Bundesliga, Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Werder Bremen won 3-0 on 1 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Werder Bremen have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against 1. FC Heidenheim — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Werder Bremen
2
Draws
3
1. FC Heidenheim
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and 1. FC Heidenheim?
From 8 meetings on record, Werder Bremen have won 3, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Werder Bremen and 1. FC Heidenheim last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Werder Bremen 2-0 1. FC Heidenheim.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
1. FC Heidenheim see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Werder Bremen 33%, 1. FC Heidenheim 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Werder Bremen and 67% for 1. FC Heidenheim. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Werder Bremen keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Werder Bremen have failed to score in 33% of games; 1. FC Heidenheim in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Werder Bremen home games / 1. FC Heidenheim away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Werder Bremen play 1. FC Heidenheim?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Werder Bremen's recent matches and 67% of 1. FC Heidenheim's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Werder Bremen vs 1. FC Heidenheim usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Werder Bremen's matches and 67% of 1. FC Heidenheim's.
Do Werder Bremen and 1. FC Heidenheim tend to score early?
Werder Bremen have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, 1. FC Heidenheim in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Werder Bremen run riot with a 3-0 hammering of 1. FC Heidenheim.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Werder Bremen beat 1. FC Heidenheim 3-0 at wohninvest WESERSTADION, Regular Season - 9, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Werder Bremen 1.25 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.60 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Werder Bremen beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. 1. FC Heidenheim landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Werder Bremen attack 0.97 / defence 1.20 against 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.91 / defence 1.20, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Werder Bremen 27% | Draw 30% | 1. FC Heidenheim 43%, with 1. FC Heidenheim to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Werder Bremen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Werder Bremen 62%, 1. FC Heidenheim 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Werder Bremen's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, 1. FC Heidenheim arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.38. Form was overturned, with Werder Bremen winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.