SV Sandhausen 0-1 Hansa Rostock – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hansa Rostock at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this SV Sandhausen vs Hansa Rostock fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SV Sandhausen and Hansa Rostock meet at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 19 March 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SV Sandhausen have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: D D D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for SV Sandhausen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SV Sandhausen's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald this season.
Hansa Rostock's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hansa Rostock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hansa Rostock's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in SV Sandhausen's favour (1.70 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — SV Sandhausen have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Hansa Rostock in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: SV Sandhausen 0W, Hansa Rostock 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
SV Sandhausen — key trading statistics (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Hansa Rostock — key trading statistics (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SV Sandhausen 62% and Hansa Rostock 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Sandhausen 50% | Hansa Rostock 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Sandhausen 1.41 xG and Hansa Rostock 1.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Sandhausen attack 0.939 / defence 1.178 | Hansa Rostock attack 1.070 / defence 1.313. League average goals — home 1.141 / away 1.496. Hansa Rostock bring a strong defensive rating of 1.313 — this is suppressing SV Sandhausen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 SV Sandhausen games / 26 Hansa Rostock games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Sandhausen 26% | Draw 28% | Hansa Rostock 46%. Fair-value odds: SV Sandhausen 3.85 | Draw 3.57 | Hansa Rostock 2.17. Hansa Rostock hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.41 / 1.89) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hansa Rostock at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form SV Sandhausen (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hansa Rostock if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.29 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SV Sandhausen 70% | Hansa Rostock 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Sandhausen vs Hansa Rostock | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Mar 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Sandhausen 26% | Draw 28% | Hansa Rostock 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 67% | xG SV Sandhausen 1.41 / Hansa Rostock 1.89 • Poisson strength factors: SV Sandhausen attack 0.939 / def 1.178 | Hansa Rostock attack 1.070 / def 1.313 | league avg home 1.141 / away 1.496 • Poisson stance: Hansa Rostock (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
SV Sandhausen xG
Expected Goals
1.89
Hansa Rostock xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Sandhausen vs Hansa Rostock kick off?
SV Sandhausen vs Hansa Rostock kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 19 March 2022 at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald.
What was the final score in SV Sandhausen vs Hansa Rostock?
SV Sandhausen 0 - 1 Hansa Rostock.
Where is SV Sandhausen vs Hansa Rostock being played?
The match is being played at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald.
What competition is SV Sandhausen vs Hansa Rostock part of?
SV Sandhausen vs Hansa Rostock is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Sandhausen vs Hansa Rostock?
Our statistical model gives SV Sandhausen a 26% chance of winning, Hansa Rostock a 46% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Hansa Rostock the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Sandhausen vs Hansa Rostock?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both SV Sandhausen and Hansa Rostock will score (BTTS).
Will SV Sandhausen vs Hansa Rostock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Sandhausen and Hansa Rostock?
Record (1 meetings): SV Sandhausen 0W | Draws 1 | Hansa Rostock 0W.
What form are SV Sandhausen and Hansa Rostock in?
SV Sandhausen (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-D-W-D. Hansa Rostock (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
SV Sandhausen's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Hansa Rostock's defensive record (1.31x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. Flip it around — Hansa Rostock's attack (1.07x) against SV Sandhausen's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.89.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hansa Rostock Win
26%
3.87
28%
3.54
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
7.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
SV Sandhausen xG
Total xG
3.29
1.89
Hansa Rostock xG
3.87
26%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.03
Clean Sheet
15%
6.59
25%
4.08
Win to Nil
4%
25.49
11%
8.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 7.0 | 6.6 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 9.9 | 9.3 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.9 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Sandhausen vs Hansa Rostock?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are SV Sandhausen and Hansa Rostock expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for SV Sandhausen and 1.89 for Hansa Rostock, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Sandhausen vs Hansa Rostock?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 26 outings, SV Sandhausen have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 7W 9D 10L record — D-D-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for SV Sandhausen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hansa Rostock's form line: 8W 7D 11L from 26 games, 1.19 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-W. The sample for Hansa Rostock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for SV Sandhausen against 1.19 for Hansa Rostock. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, SV Sandhausen have posted 0.83 PPG from 12 outings (2W 4D 6L).
On the road, Hansa Rostock have gone 4W 4D 4L from 12 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hansa Rostock come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SV Sandhausen are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Hansa Rostock are on 1.31 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SV Sandhausen have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Hansa Rostock in 62%.
Last 26 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Sandhausen
Blended
Hansa Rostock
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Sandhausen and Hansa Rostock in coming into this match?
SV Sandhausen have gone 7W 9D 10L in their last 26 games (1.15 PPG), while Hansa Rostock have gone 8W 7D 11L in their last 26 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Sandhausen at home or Hansa Rostock away?
Hansa Rostock's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Sandhausen at home: 0.83 PPG; Hansa Rostock away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SV Sandhausen have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Hansa Rostock — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
SV Sandhausen
1
Draws
2
Hansa Rostock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Sandhausen and Hansa Rostock?
From 4 meetings on record, SV Sandhausen have won 1, Hansa Rostock have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SV Sandhausen and Hansa Rostock last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2023, when SV Sandhausen 1-2 Hansa Rostock.
Who has won more matches between SV Sandhausen and Hansa Rostock?
Hansa Rostock have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SV Sandhausen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Hansa Rostock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Sandhausen 58%, Hansa Rostock 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (SV Sandhausen) and 58% (Hansa Rostock).
On the defensive side: SV Sandhausen have failed to score in 33% of games; Hansa Rostock in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Sandhausen home games / Hansa Rostock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Sandhausen play Hansa Rostock?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of SV Sandhausen's games and 58% of Hansa Rostock's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SV Sandhausen vs Hansa Rostock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of SV Sandhausen's recent games and 58% of Hansa Rostock's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SV Sandhausen and Hansa Rostock tend to score early?
SV Sandhausen have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Hansa Rostock in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hansa Rostock edge out SV Sandhausen 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hansa Rostock beat SV Sandhausen 0-1 at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald, Regular Season - 27, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Sandhausen 1.41 xG and Hansa Rostock 1.89 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. SV Sandhausen fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Hansa Rostock landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Sandhausen attack 0.94 / defence 1.18 against Hansa Rostock attack 1.07 / defence 1.31, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Sandhausen 26% | Draw 28% | Hansa Rostock 46%, with Hansa Rostock to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Sandhausen 50%, Hansa Rostock 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Sandhausen's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Hansa Rostock's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SV Sandhausen 1.15 PPG, Hansa Rostock 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hansa Rostock win broke the near-deadlock. SV Sandhausen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line. Hansa Rostock (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.