SV Darmstadt 98 1-1 Hamburger SV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SV Darmstadt 98 at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hamburger SV fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SV Darmstadt 98 and Hamburger SV meet at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 25 February 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
SV Darmstadt 98's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 7W 3D 0L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, SV Darmstadt 98 have posted 6W 4D 0L at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
Hamburger SV have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hamburger SV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, Hamburger SV have posted 7W 1D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form favours the hosts. SV Darmstadt 98's 2.40 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Hamburger SV's 1.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — SV Darmstadt 98 lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 19 Aug 2022, ended 2–1 with SV Darmstadt 98 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
SV Darmstadt 98 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Hamburger SV goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Darmstadt 98 54% versus Hamburger SV 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Darmstadt 98 58% | Hamburger SV 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Darmstadt 98 1.43 xG and Hamburger SV 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.023 / defence 0.798 | Hamburger SV attack 1.293 / defence 0.951. League average goals — home 1.464 / away 1.295. Hamburger SV have an above-average attack strength of 1.293 — the away xG of 1.34 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. SV Darmstadt 98's defence rating of 0.798 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 55 SV Darmstadt 98 games / 55 Hamburger SV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 39% | Draw 25% | Hamburger SV 35%. Fair-value odds: SV Darmstadt 98 2.56 | Draw 4.00 | Hamburger SV 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SV Darmstadt 98 as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SV Darmstadt 98 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: SV Darmstadt 98 50% | Hamburger SV 40%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hamburger SV | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Feb 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 39% | Draw 25% | Hamburger SV 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG SV Darmstadt 98 1.43 / Hamburger SV 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.023 / def 0.798 | Hamburger SV attack 1.293 / def 0.951 | league avg home 1.464 / away 1.295 • Poisson stance: SV Darmstadt 98 (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Hamburger SV xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hamburger SV kick off?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hamburger SV kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 25 February 2023 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What was the final score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hamburger SV?
SV Darmstadt 98 1 - 1 Hamburger SV.
Where is SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hamburger SV being played?
The match is being played at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What competition is SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hamburger SV part of?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hamburger SV is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hamburger SV?
Our statistical model gives SV Darmstadt 98 a 39% chance of winning, Hamburger SV a 35% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making SV Darmstadt 98 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hamburger SV?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both SV Darmstadt 98 and Hamburger SV will score (BTTS).
Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hamburger SV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and Hamburger SV?
Record (3 meetings): SV Darmstadt 98 1W | Draws 1 | Hamburger SV 1W.
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and Hamburger SV in?
SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Hamburger SV (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates SV Darmstadt 98's attack at 1.02x the league average against Hamburger SV's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hamburger SV's attack (1.29x) against SV Darmstadt 98's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Darmstadt 98 Win
39%
2.54
25%
3.93
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Total xG
2.76
1.34
Hamburger SV xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
26%
3.81
24%
4.16
Win to Nil
10%
9.69
8%
11.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.4 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.0 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.6 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hamburger SV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are SV Darmstadt 98 and Hamburger SV expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for SV Darmstadt 98 and 1.34 for Hamburger SV, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hamburger SV?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 55 outings, SV Darmstadt 98 have picked up 1.96 PPG on a 32W 12D 11L record — D-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for SV Darmstadt 98 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hamburger SV's form line: 30W 13D 12L from 55 games, 1.87 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W. The sample for Hamburger SV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.96 PPG for SV Darmstadt 98 against 1.87 for Hamburger SV. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, SV Darmstadt 98 have posted 2.15 PPG from 27 outings (17W 7D 3L).
On the road, Hamburger SV have gone 14W 7D 6L from 27 away games — 1.81 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
SV Darmstadt 98 are averaging 1.95 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Hamburger SV are on 1.89 scored and 1.09 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
Defensively: SV Darmstadt 98 have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
Hamburger SV
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and Hamburger SV in coming into this match?
SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 32W 12D 11L in their last 55 games (1.96 PPG), while Hamburger SV have gone 30W 13D 12L in their last 55 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Darmstadt 98 at home or Hamburger SV away?
SV Darmstadt 98's home record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Darmstadt 98 at home: 2.15 PPG; Hamburger SV away: 1.81 PPG.
Have SV Darmstadt 98 or Hamburger SV been keeping clean sheets recently?
SV Darmstadt 98 have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Hamburger SV in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hamburger SV won 0-5 on 6 Feb 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Hamburger SV — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
SV Darmstadt 98
3
Draws
2
Hamburger SV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and Hamburger SV?
From 6 meetings on record, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 1, Hamburger SV have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SV Darmstadt 98 and Hamburger SV last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2025, when SV Darmstadt 98 0-4 Hamburger SV.
Who has won more matches between SV Darmstadt 98 and Hamburger SV?
Hamburger SV have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Darmstadt 98 52%, Hamburger SV 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (SV Darmstadt 98) and 44% (Hamburger SV).
On the defensive side: SV Darmstadt 98 keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Hamburger SV in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Darmstadt 98 home games / Hamburger SV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Darmstadt 98 play Hamburger SV?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of SV Darmstadt 98's recent matches and 52% of Hamburger SV's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hamburger SV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of SV Darmstadt 98's recent games and 44% of Hamburger SV's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SV Darmstadt 98 and Hamburger SV tend to score early?
SV Darmstadt 98 have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Hamburger SV in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SV Darmstadt 98 and Hamburger SV share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor, Regular Season - 22, as SV Darmstadt 98 and Hamburger SV drew 1-1 in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Darmstadt 98 1.43 xG and Hamburger SV 1.34 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.02 / defence 0.80 against Hamburger SV attack 1.29 / defence 0.95, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Darmstadt 98 39% | Draw 25% | Hamburger SV 35%, with SV Darmstadt 98 to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Darmstadt 98 58%, Hamburger SV 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Hamburger SV's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SV Darmstadt 98 1.96 PPG, Hamburger SV 1.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.26 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.