SV Darmstadt 98 6-0 Erzgebirge AUE – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SV Darmstadt 98 at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SV Darmstadt 98 vs Erzgebirge AUE encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SV Darmstadt 98 host Erzgebirge AUE at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 30 April 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SV Darmstadt 98 stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, SV Darmstadt 98 have posted 4W 3D 3L at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Erzgebirge AUE — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, Erzgebirge AUE have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
SV Darmstadt 98 are in the better shape of the two on current 2. Bundesliga data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. SV Darmstadt 98 register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Erzgebirge AUE in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for SV Darmstadt 98, 0 for Erzgebirge AUE and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Nov 2021, ended 2–1 with SV Darmstadt 98 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
SV Darmstadt 98 trading profile (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Erzgebirge AUE trading profile (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Darmstadt 98 58% versus Erzgebirge AUE 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Darmstadt 98 64% | Erzgebirge AUE 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Darmstadt 98 2.24 xG and Erzgebirge AUE 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.218 / defence 1.423 | Erzgebirge AUE attack 0.826 / defence 1.624. League average goals — home 1.133 / away 1.481. Erzgebirge AUE bring a strong defensive rating of 1.624 — this is suppressing SV Darmstadt 98's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 SV Darmstadt 98 games / 31 Erzgebirge AUE games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 48% | Draw 24% | Erzgebirge AUE 28%. Fair-value odds: SV Darmstadt 98 2.08 | Draw 4.17 | Erzgebirge AUE 3.57. SV Darmstadt 98 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 76% | Total xG 3.98. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 3.98 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 76% reflects that both xG figures (2.24 / 1.74) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SV Darmstadt 98 as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SV Darmstadt 98 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.98 combined xG gives a 76% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 76% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SV Darmstadt 98 70% | Erzgebirge AUE 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Darmstadt 98 vs Erzgebirge AUE | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Apr 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 48% | Draw 24% | Erzgebirge AUE 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 76% | xG SV Darmstadt 98 2.24 / Erzgebirge AUE 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.218 / def 1.423 | Erzgebirge AUE attack 0.826 / def 1.624 | league avg home 1.133 / away 1.481 • Poisson stance: SV Darmstadt 98 (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.24
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Expected Goals
1.74
Erzgebirge AUE xG
76%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Darmstadt 98 vs Erzgebirge AUE kick off?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs Erzgebirge AUE kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 30 April 2022 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What was the final score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs Erzgebirge AUE?
SV Darmstadt 98 6 - 0 Erzgebirge AUE.
Where is SV Darmstadt 98 vs Erzgebirge AUE being played?
The match is being played at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What competition is SV Darmstadt 98 vs Erzgebirge AUE part of?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs Erzgebirge AUE is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Darmstadt 98 vs Erzgebirge AUE?
Our statistical model gives SV Darmstadt 98 a 48% chance of winning, Erzgebirge AUE a 28% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making SV Darmstadt 98 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs Erzgebirge AUE?
Our model estimates a 76% probability that both SV Darmstadt 98 and Erzgebirge AUE will score (BTTS).
Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs Erzgebirge AUE have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and Erzgebirge AUE?
Record (1 meetings): SV Darmstadt 98 1W | Draws 0 | Erzgebirge AUE 0W.
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and Erzgebirge AUE in?
SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Erzgebirge AUE (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
SV Darmstadt 98's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against Erzgebirge AUE's defensive record (1.62x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.24. The same calculation in reverse, Erzgebirge AUE's attack versus SV Darmstadt 98's defence, projects 1.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 8.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.2%), 2-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Darmstadt 98 Win
48%
2.10
24%
4.16
28%
3.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.3%
Draw
2 – 2
7.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.24
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Total xG
3.98
1.74
Erzgebirge AUE xG
2.10
48%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
3.52
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
76%
BTTS Yes
1.32
24%
BTTS No
4.10
Clean Sheet
18%
5.70
11%
9.39
Win to Nil
8%
11.98
3%
33.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 7.3 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 8.2 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 6.1 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Darmstadt 98 vs Erzgebirge AUE?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.2%.
How many goals are SV Darmstadt 98 and Erzgebirge AUE expected to score?
The model projects 2.24 expected goals for SV Darmstadt 98 and 1.74 for Erzgebirge AUE, a combined total of 3.98.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Darmstadt 98 vs Erzgebirge AUE?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 31 outings, SV Darmstadt 98 have picked up 1.74 PPG on a 16W 6D 9L record — L-W-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Erzgebirge AUE's form line: 5W 8D 18L from 31 games, 0.74 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-D.
Put side by side, SV Darmstadt 98 are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Erzgebirge AUE.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, SV Darmstadt 98 have posted 1.80 PPG from 15 outings (8W 3D 4L).
On the road, Erzgebirge AUE have gone 2W 5D 8L from 15 away games — 0.73 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SV Darmstadt 98 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SV Darmstadt 98 are averaging 1.97 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Erzgebirge AUE are on 1.00 scored and 2.03 conceded.
Last 31 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Darmstadt 98
Current Season
Erzgebirge AUE
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and Erzgebirge AUE in coming into this match?
SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 16W 6D 9L in their last 31 games (1.74 PPG), while Erzgebirge AUE have gone 5W 8D 18L in their last 31 (0.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Darmstadt 98 at home or Erzgebirge AUE away?
SV Darmstadt 98's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Darmstadt 98 at home: 1.80 PPG; Erzgebirge AUE away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SV Darmstadt 98 and Erzgebirge AUE runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
SV Darmstadt 98
0
Draws
0
Erzgebirge AUE
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and Erzgebirge AUE?
From 2 meetings on record, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 2, Erzgebirge AUE have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SV Darmstadt 98 and Erzgebirge AUE last play each other?
They last met on 30 April 2022, when SV Darmstadt 98 6-0 Erzgebirge AUE.
Who has won more matches between SV Darmstadt 98 and Erzgebirge AUE?
SV Darmstadt 98 have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Erzgebirge AUE are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Darmstadt 98 53%, Erzgebirge AUE 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for SV Darmstadt 98 and 67% for Erzgebirge AUE. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Darmstadt 98 keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Erzgebirge AUE in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Darmstadt 98 home games / Erzgebirge AUE away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Darmstadt 98 play Erzgebirge AUE?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of SV Darmstadt 98's games and 60% of Erzgebirge AUE's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SV Darmstadt 98 vs Erzgebirge AUE usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of SV Darmstadt 98's matches and 67% of Erzgebirge AUE's.
Do SV Darmstadt 98 and Erzgebirge AUE tend to score early?
SV Darmstadt 98 have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Erzgebirge AUE in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SV Darmstadt 98 run riot with a 6-0 hammering of Erzgebirge AUE.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Darmstadt 98 beat Erzgebirge AUE 6-0 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor, Regular Season - 32, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Darmstadt 98 2.24 xG and Erzgebirge AUE 1.74 xG, a combined 3.98. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. SV Darmstadt 98 beat their projection by 3.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Erzgebirge AUE landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.22 / defence 1.42 against Erzgebirge AUE attack 0.83 / defence 1.62, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Darmstadt 98 48% | Draw 24% | Erzgebirge AUE 28%, with SV Darmstadt 98 to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 56% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 76% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Darmstadt 98 64%, Erzgebirge AUE 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Erzgebirge AUE's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, SV Darmstadt 98 arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 0.74. Form held, and they took the win. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 2.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line. Erzgebirge AUE (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 2.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.