SV Darmstadt 98 2-1 Eintracht Braunschweig – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SV Darmstadt 98 at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SV Darmstadt 98 vs Eintracht Braunschweig encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Eintracht Braunschweig travel to Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor to take on SV Darmstadt 98. The game is scheduled for Sunday 12 February 2023, 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
SV Darmstadt 98 — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 2.40 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SV Darmstadt 98's form when playing at home: 6W 4D 0L across 10 games at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Eintracht Braunschweig stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Braunschweig, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Eintracht Braunschweig away from home this season: 1W 4D 4L from 9 away games — 0.78 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.11 goals scored and 2.11 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.78 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
SV Darmstadt 98 are in the better shape of the two on current 2. Bundesliga data — 1.10 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for SV Darmstadt 98, 0 for Eintracht Braunschweig and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 7 Aug 2022, ended 1–0 with SV Darmstadt 98 winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
SV Darmstadt 98 in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Eintracht Braunschweig in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Darmstadt 98 53% versus Eintracht Braunschweig 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Darmstadt 98 42% | Eintracht Braunschweig 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Darmstadt 98 2.01 xG and Eintracht Braunschweig 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.038 / defence 0.754 | Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.879 / defence 1.326. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.365. Eintracht Braunschweig bring a strong defensive rating of 1.326 — this is suppressing SV Darmstadt 98's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. SV Darmstadt 98's defence rating of 0.754 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 53 SV Darmstadt 98 games / 19 Eintracht Braunschweig games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 63% | Draw 21% | Eintracht Braunschweig 16%. Fair-value odds: SV Darmstadt 98 1.59 | Draw 4.76 | Eintracht Braunschweig 6.25. The model has a clear lean to SV Darmstadt 98 (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SV Darmstadt 98 at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: SV Darmstadt 98 50% | Eintracht Braunschweig 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Darmstadt 98 vs Eintracht Braunschweig | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Feb 2023, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 63% | Draw 21% | Eintracht Braunschweig 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 52% | xG SV Darmstadt 98 2.01 / Eintracht Braunschweig 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.038 / def 0.754 | Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.879 / def 1.326 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.365 • Poisson stance: SV Darmstadt 98 (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
52%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Darmstadt 98 vs Eintracht Braunschweig kick off?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs Eintracht Braunschweig kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 12 February 2023 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What was the final score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
SV Darmstadt 98 2 - 1 Eintracht Braunschweig.
Where is SV Darmstadt 98 vs Eintracht Braunschweig being played?
The match is being played at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What competition is SV Darmstadt 98 vs Eintracht Braunschweig part of?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs Eintracht Braunschweig is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Darmstadt 98 vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our statistical model gives SV Darmstadt 98 a 63% chance of winning, Eintracht Braunschweig a 16% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making SV Darmstadt 98 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both SV Darmstadt 98 and Eintracht Braunschweig will score (BTTS).
Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs Eintracht Braunschweig have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and Eintracht Braunschweig?
Record (1 meetings): SV Darmstadt 98 1W | Draws 0 | Eintracht Braunschweig 0W.
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and Eintracht Braunschweig in?
SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Eintracht Braunschweig (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates SV Darmstadt 98's attack at 1.04x the league average against Eintracht Braunschweig's defence at 1.33x — combine the two and it projects 2.01 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Eintracht Braunschweig's attack versus SV Darmstadt 98's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.9%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Darmstadt 98 Win
63%
1.59
21%
4.81
16%
6.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Total xG
2.91
0.91
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
1.59
63%
Home win
4.81
21%
Draw
6.19
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
13%
7.46
Win to Nil
26%
3.92
2%
46.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.9 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Darmstadt 98 vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are SV Darmstadt 98 and Eintracht Braunschweig expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for SV Darmstadt 98 and 0.91 for Eintracht Braunschweig, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Darmstadt 98 vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SV Darmstadt 98 come into this having played 19 games, going 12W 6D 1L for 2.21 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-W. The sample for SV Darmstadt 98 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Eintracht Braunschweig sit at 1.11 PPG from 19 outings (5W 6D 8L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Eintracht Braunschweig is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SV Darmstadt 98 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.10 PPG clear of Eintracht Braunschweig — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
SV Darmstadt 98's home form reads 5W 4D 0L across 9 games on their own ground, a 2.11 PPG return.
Away from home, Eintracht Braunschweig have taken 0.78 points per game from 9 outings (1W 4D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SV Darmstadt 98 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SV Darmstadt 98 are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 0.79 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Braunschweig are on 1.16 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Defensively: SV Darmstadt 98 have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
Eintracht Braunschweig
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and Eintracht Braunschweig in coming into this match?
SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 12W 6D 1L in their last 19 games (2.21 PPG), while Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 5W 6D 8L in their last 19 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Darmstadt 98 at home or Eintracht Braunschweig away?
SV Darmstadt 98's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Darmstadt 98 at home: 2.11 PPG; Eintracht Braunschweig away: 0.78 PPG.
Have SV Darmstadt 98 or Eintracht Braunschweig been keeping clean sheets recently?
SV Darmstadt 98 have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Eintracht Braunschweig in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
SV Darmstadt 98's record when hosting Eintracht Braunschweig specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
SV Darmstadt 98
2
Draws
1
Eintracht Braunschweig
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and Eintracht Braunschweig?
From 6 meetings on record, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 3, Eintracht Braunschweig have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SV Darmstadt 98 and Eintracht Braunschweig last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Eintracht Braunschweig 2-2 SV Darmstadt 98.
Who has won more matches between SV Darmstadt 98 and Eintracht Braunschweig?
SV Darmstadt 98 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Eintracht Braunschweig see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Darmstadt 98 44%, Eintracht Braunschweig 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 22% (SV Darmstadt 98) and 56% (Eintracht Braunschweig).
On the defensive side: SV Darmstadt 98 keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Darmstadt 98 home games / Eintracht Braunschweig away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Darmstadt 98 play Eintracht Braunschweig?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of SV Darmstadt 98's games and 67% of Eintracht Braunschweig's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SV Darmstadt 98 vs Eintracht Braunschweig usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of SV Darmstadt 98's recent games and 56% of Eintracht Braunschweig's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SV Darmstadt 98 and Eintracht Braunschweig tend to score early?
SV Darmstadt 98 have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Eintracht Braunschweig in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SV Darmstadt 98 edge out Eintracht Braunschweig 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Darmstadt 98 beat Eintracht Braunschweig 2-1 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor, Regular Season - 20, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Darmstadt 98 2.01 xG and Eintracht Braunschweig 0.91 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.04 / defence 0.75 against Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.88 / defence 1.33, drawn from 53/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Darmstadt 98 63% | Draw 21% | Eintracht Braunschweig 16%, with SV Darmstadt 98 to win its most likely call at 63%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Darmstadt 98 42%, Eintracht Braunschweig 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Eintracht Braunschweig's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SV Darmstadt 98 arrived the stronger side — 2.21 PPG against 1.11. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.