SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-1 SSV Jahn Regensburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SSV Jahn Regensburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 28 as SpVgg Greuther Fürth welcome SSV Jahn Regensburg to Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer. Kick-off is set for Friday 14 April 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
SpVgg Greuther Fürth — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home record at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer: 6W 4D 0L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — SpVgg Greuther Fürth are significantly better at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, SSV Jahn Regensburg stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for SSV Jahn Regensburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SSV Jahn Regensburg away from home this season: 2W 0D 8L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, 0 for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Oct 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
SpVgg Greuther Fürth trading profile (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
SSV Jahn Regensburg trading profile (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 69% versus SSV Jahn Regensburg 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 64% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.35 xG and SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.915 / defence 0.863 | SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.804 / defence 0.976. League average goals — home 1.516 / away 1.290. Data: 27 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games / 61 SSV Jahn Regensburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 47% | Draw 28% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 25%. Fair-value odds: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | SSV Jahn Regensburg 4.00. SpVgg Greuther Fürth hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SpVgg Greuther Fürth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 60% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SSV Jahn Regensburg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer • Kick-off: Friday 14 Apr 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 47% | Draw 28% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 44% | xG SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.35 / SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.915 / def 0.863 | SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.804 / def 0.976 | league avg home 1.516 / away 1.290 • Poisson stance: SpVgg Greuther Fürth (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Expected Goals
0.90
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SSV Jahn Regensburg kick off?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SSV Jahn Regensburg kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 14 April 2023 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What was the final score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2 - 1 SSV Jahn Regensburg.
Where is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SSV Jahn Regensburg being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What competition is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SSV Jahn Regensburg part of?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SSV Jahn Regensburg is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our statistical model gives SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 47% chance of winning, SSV Jahn Regensburg a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making SpVgg Greuther Fürth the favourite.
Will both teams score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SSV Jahn Regensburg will score (BTTS).
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SSV Jahn Regensburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Record (1 meetings): SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0W | Draws 1 | SSV Jahn Regensburg 0W.
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SSV Jahn Regensburg in?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. SSV Jahn Regensburg (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack at 0.92x the league average against SSV Jahn Regensburg's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SpVgg Greuther Fürth Win
47%
2.11
28%
3.60
25%
4.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Total xG
2.25
0.90
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
4.03
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
19%
5.16
6%
15.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 9.4 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 12.8 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SSV Jahn Regensburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 0.90 for SSV Jahn Regensburg, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SpVgg Greuther Fürth come into this having played 61 games, going 11W 18D 32L for 0.84 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-W. The sample for SpVgg Greuther Fürth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SSV Jahn Regensburg sit at 1.10 PPG from 61 outings (17W 16D 28L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for SSV Jahn Regensburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: SpVgg Greuther Fürth on 0.84 PPG, SSV Jahn Regensburg on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home form reads 9W 11D 10L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.27 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.84 PPG overall — SpVgg Greuther Fürth are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, SSV Jahn Regensburg have taken 0.90 points per game from 30 outings (7W 6D 17L).
Goals in Recent Form
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; SSV Jahn Regensburg are on 1.26 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SpVgg Greuther Fürth have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 61 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SSV Jahn Regensburg in coming into this match?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 11W 18D 32L in their last 61 games (0.84 PPG), while SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 17W 16D 28L in their last 61 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home or SSV Jahn Regensburg away?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home: 1.27 PPG; SSV Jahn Regensburg away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: SpVgg Greuther Fürth have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Aug 2024, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's record when hosting SSV Jahn Regensburg specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1
Draws
0
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
From 4 meetings on record, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 3, SSV Jahn Regensburg have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SSV Jahn Regensburg last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2025, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-1 SSV Jahn Regensburg.
Who has won more matches between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
SSV Jahn Regensburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 63%, SSV Jahn Regensburg 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (SpVgg Greuther Fürth) and 43% (SSV Jahn Regensburg).
On the defensive side: SSV Jahn Regensburg in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SpVgg Greuther Fürth home games / SSV Jahn Regensburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SpVgg Greuther Fürth play SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent matches and 37% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SSV Jahn Regensburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent games and 43% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SSV Jahn Regensburg tend to score early?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, SSV Jahn Regensburg in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SpVgg Greuther Fürth edge out SSV Jahn Regensburg 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SpVgg Greuther Fürth beat SSV Jahn Regensburg 2-1 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Regular Season - 28, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.35 xG and SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.90 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.92 / defence 0.86 against SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.80 / defence 0.98, drawn from 27/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SpVgg Greuther Fürth 47% | Draw 28% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 25%, with SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 64%, SSV Jahn Regensburg 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0.84 PPG, SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SpVgg Greuther Fürth win broke the near-deadlock. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.