SC Paderborn 07 3-0 Hansa Rostock – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SC Paderborn 07 at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SC Paderborn 07 vs Hansa Rostock encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Home Deluxe Arena plays host to SC Paderborn 07 versus Hansa Rostock in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Saturday 15 April 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SC Paderborn 07 have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Paderborn 07's home record at Home Deluxe Arena: 6W 0D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Hansa Rostock's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 1W 1D 8L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Hansa Rostock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hansa Rostock away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward SC Paderborn 07. A 1.30 PPG lead over Hansa Rostock (1.70 vs 0.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — SC Paderborn 07 lead 1W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Oct 2022, ended 3–0 with SC Paderborn 07 winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
SC Paderborn 07 — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Hansa Rostock — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Paderborn 07 57% versus Hansa Rostock 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Paderborn 07 62% | Hansa Rostock 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 1.85 xG and Hansa Rostock 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.253 / defence 1.024 | Hansa Rostock attack 0.731 / defence 0.981. League average goals — home 1.507 / away 1.307. SC Paderborn 07 carry an above-average attack strength of 1.253 — their λ of 1.85 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 61 SC Paderborn 07 games / 61 Hansa Rostock games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 58% | Draw 23% | Hansa Rostock 20%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 1.72 | Draw 4.35 | Hansa Rostock 5.00. The model has a clear lean to SC Paderborn 07 (58%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SC Paderborn 07 at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: SC Paderborn 07 50% | Hansa Rostock 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Paderborn 07 vs Hansa Rostock | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Home Deluxe Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Apr 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 58% | Draw 23% | Hansa Rostock 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 53% | xG SC Paderborn 07 1.85 / Hansa Rostock 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.253 / def 1.024 | Hansa Rostock attack 0.731 / def 0.981 | league avg home 1.507 / away 1.307 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Hansa Rostock xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Paderborn 07 vs Hansa Rostock kick off?
SC Paderborn 07 vs Hansa Rostock kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 15 April 2023 at Home Deluxe Arena.
What was the final score in SC Paderborn 07 vs Hansa Rostock?
SC Paderborn 07 3 - 0 Hansa Rostock.
Where is SC Paderborn 07 vs Hansa Rostock being played?
The match is being played at Home Deluxe Arena.
What competition is SC Paderborn 07 vs Hansa Rostock part of?
SC Paderborn 07 vs Hansa Rostock is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Paderborn 07 vs Hansa Rostock?
Our statistical model gives SC Paderborn 07 a 58% chance of winning, Hansa Rostock a 20% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs Hansa Rostock?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both SC Paderborn 07 and Hansa Rostock will score (BTTS).
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs Hansa Rostock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and Hansa Rostock?
Record (3 meetings): SC Paderborn 07 1W | Draws 2 | Hansa Rostock 0W.
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and Hansa Rostock in?
SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Hansa Rostock (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates SC Paderborn 07's attack at 1.25x the league average against Hansa Rostock's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.85 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hansa Rostock's attack (0.73x) against SC Paderborn 07's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
58%
1.73
23%
4.44
20%
5.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Total xG
2.83
0.98
Hansa Rostock xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.44
23%
Draw
5.10
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
16%
6.38
Win to Nil
22%
4.59
3%
32.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.9 | 10.7 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Paderborn 07 vs Hansa Rostock?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are SC Paderborn 07 and Hansa Rostock expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 0.98 for Hansa Rostock, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Paderborn 07 vs Hansa Rostock?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SC Paderborn 07 come into this having played 61 games, going 26W 16D 19L for 1.54 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-L. The sample for SC Paderborn 07 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hansa Rostock sit at 1.08 PPG from 61 outings (17W 15D 29L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Hansa Rostock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Paderborn 07 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.46 PPG clear of Hansa Rostock — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
SC Paderborn 07's home form reads 13W 7D 10L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.53 PPG return.
Away from home, Hansa Rostock have taken 1.30 points per game from 30 outings (10W 9D 11L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SC Paderborn 07 are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Hansa Rostock are on 1.05 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 61 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
Hansa Rostock
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and Hansa Rostock in coming into this match?
SC Paderborn 07 have gone 26W 16D 19L in their last 61 games (1.54 PPG), while Hansa Rostock have gone 17W 15D 29L in their last 61 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Paderborn 07 at home or Hansa Rostock away?
SC Paderborn 07's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Paderborn 07 at home: 1.53 PPG; Hansa Rostock away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
SC Paderborn 07 go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SC Paderborn 07 won 0-3 on 8 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Hansa Rostock — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
SC Paderborn 07
2
Draws
0
Hansa Rostock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and Hansa Rostock?
From 6 meetings on record, SC Paderborn 07 have won 4, Hansa Rostock have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SC Paderborn 07 and Hansa Rostock last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2024, when Hansa Rostock 1-2 SC Paderborn 07.
Who has won more matches between SC Paderborn 07 and Hansa Rostock?
SC Paderborn 07 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Hansa Rostock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Paderborn 07 63%, Hansa Rostock 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (SC Paderborn 07) and 50% (Hansa Rostock). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hansa Rostock in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Paderborn 07 home games / Hansa Rostock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Paderborn 07 play Hansa Rostock?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of SC Paderborn 07's recent matches and 40% of Hansa Rostock's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SC Paderborn 07 vs Hansa Rostock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of SC Paderborn 07's matches and 50% of Hansa Rostock's.
Do SC Paderborn 07 and Hansa Rostock tend to score early?
SC Paderborn 07 have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Hansa Rostock in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SC Paderborn 07 run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Hansa Rostock.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Paderborn 07 beat Hansa Rostock 3-0 at Home Deluxe Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 1.85 xG and Hansa Rostock 0.98 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. SC Paderborn 07 beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hansa Rostock landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.25 / defence 1.02 against Hansa Rostock attack 0.73 / defence 0.98, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 58% | Draw 23% | Hansa Rostock 20%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 62%, Hansa Rostock 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Hansa Rostock's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Paderborn 07 arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was vindicated by the result. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.03 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Hansa Rostock (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.