SC Paderborn 07 2-3 Hamburger SV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SC Paderborn 07 at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hamburger SV make the trip to Home Deluxe Arena to face SC Paderborn 07 in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Sunday 30 October 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
SC Paderborn 07's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: L L W W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Paderborn 07's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at Home Deluxe Arena this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 3.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Home Deluxe Arena. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — SC Paderborn 07 are significantly better at Home Deluxe Arena than their overall form suggests.
Hamburger SV have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W W D L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Hamburger SV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hamburger SV away from home this season: 9W 0D 1L from 10 away games — 2.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.70 exceeds their overall 1.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.00 vs 1.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — SC Paderborn 07 lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2022, ended 2–1 with SC Paderborn 07 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
SC Paderborn 07 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Hamburger SV goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Paderborn 07 57% versus Hamburger SV 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Paderborn 07 64% | Hamburger SV 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 2.06 xG and Hamburger SV 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.543 / defence 0.823 | Hamburger SV attack 1.216 / defence 0.924. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.269. SC Paderborn 07 carry an above-average attack strength of 1.543 — their λ of 2.06 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Hamburger SV have an above-average attack strength of 1.216 — the away xG of 1.27 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 47 SC Paderborn 07 games / 47 Hamburger SV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 54% | Draw 24% | Hamburger SV 22%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 1.85 | Draw 4.17 | Hamburger SV 4.55. SC Paderborn 07 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.06 / 1.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SC Paderborn 07 as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SC Paderborn 07 if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.33 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: SC Paderborn 07 40% | Hamburger SV 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Home Deluxe Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Oct 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 54% | Draw 24% | Hamburger SV 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 64% | xG SC Paderborn 07 2.06 / Hamburger SV 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.543 / def 0.823 | Hamburger SV attack 1.216 / def 0.924 | league avg home 1.445 / away 1.269 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Hamburger SV xG
64%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV kick off?
SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 30 October 2022 at Home Deluxe Arena.
What was the final score in SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV?
SC Paderborn 07 2 - 3 Hamburger SV.
Where is SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV being played?
The match is being played at Home Deluxe Arena.
What competition is SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV part of?
SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV?
Our statistical model gives SC Paderborn 07 a 54% chance of winning, Hamburger SV a 22% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both SC Paderborn 07 and Hamburger SV will score (BTTS).
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and Hamburger SV?
Record (2 meetings): SC Paderborn 07 1W | Draws 0 | Hamburger SV 1W.
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and Hamburger SV in?
SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. Hamburger SV (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates SC Paderborn 07's attack at 1.54x the league average against Hamburger SV's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 2.06 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hamburger SV's attack (1.22x) against SC Paderborn 07's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
54%
1.85
24%
4.11
22%
4.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
2 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Total xG
3.33
1.27
Hamburger SV xG
1.85
54%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
4.63
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.81
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
13%
7.85
Win to Nil
15%
6.59
3%
36.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 9.4 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.6 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are SC Paderborn 07 and Hamburger SV expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.27 for Hamburger SV, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 47 outings, SC Paderborn 07 have picked up 1.64 PPG on a 21W 14D 12L record — L-L-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for SC Paderborn 07 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hamburger SV's form line: 24W 12D 11L from 47 games, 1.79 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-L. The sample for Hamburger SV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.64 PPG for SC Paderborn 07 against 1.79 for Hamburger SV. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, SC Paderborn 07 have posted 1.57 PPG from 23 outings (10W 6D 7L).
On the road, Hamburger SV have gone 12W 6D 5L from 23 away games — 1.83 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
SC Paderborn 07 are averaging 1.87 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Hamburger SV are on 1.77 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Last 47 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
Hamburger SV
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and Hamburger SV in coming into this match?
SC Paderborn 07 have gone 21W 14D 12L in their last 47 games (1.64 PPG), while Hamburger SV have gone 24W 12D 11L in their last 47 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Paderborn 07 at home or Hamburger SV away?
Hamburger SV's away record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Paderborn 07 at home: 1.57 PPG; Hamburger SV away: 1.83 PPG.
Have SC Paderborn 07 or Hamburger SV been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Paderborn 07 have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Hamburger SV in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Hamburger SV — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
SC Paderborn 07
2
Draws
2
Hamburger SV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and Hamburger SV?
From 8 meetings on record, SC Paderborn 07 have won 4, Hamburger SV have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SC Paderborn 07 and Hamburger SV last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2025, when SC Paderborn 07 2-0 Hamburger SV.
Who has won more matches between SC Paderborn 07 and Hamburger SV?
SC Paderborn 07 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Paderborn 07 61%, Hamburger SV 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (SC Paderborn 07) and 44% (Hamburger SV).
On the defensive side: SC Paderborn 07 keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Hamburger SV in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Paderborn 07 home games / Hamburger SV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Paderborn 07 play Hamburger SV?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of SC Paderborn 07's games and 52% of Hamburger SV's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 65% of SC Paderborn 07's recent games and 44% of Hamburger SV's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SC Paderborn 07 and Hamburger SV tend to score early?
SC Paderborn 07 have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Hamburger SV in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hamburger SV defy the odds to beat SC Paderborn 07 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hamburger SV beat SC Paderborn 07 2-3 at Home Deluxe Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 2.06 xG and Hamburger SV 1.27 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Hamburger SV outscored their 1.27 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.54 / defence 0.82 against Hamburger SV attack 1.22 / defence 0.92, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 54% | Draw 24% | Hamburger SV 22%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Hamburger SV win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 64%, Hamburger SV 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Hamburger SV's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SC Paderborn 07 1.64 PPG, Hamburger SV 1.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hamburger SV win broke the near-deadlock. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.74 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.