SC Paderborn 07 4-1 Fortuna Düsseldorf – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SC Paderborn 07 at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Paderborn 07 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SC Paderborn 07 host Fortuna Düsseldorf at Home Deluxe Arena in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 3 February 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
SC Paderborn 07 — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Home Deluxe Arena, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 7W 0D 3L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Home Deluxe Arena. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — SC Paderborn 07 are significantly better at Home Deluxe Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Fortuna Düsseldorf have recorded 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Düsseldorf, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Fortuna Düsseldorf — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, SC Paderborn 07 have won 1, Fortuna Düsseldorf 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Jul 2022, ended 1–2 with Fortuna Düsseldorf winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
SC Paderborn 07 in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Fortuna Düsseldorf in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Paderborn 07 56% versus Fortuna Düsseldorf 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Paderborn 07 64% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 1.68 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.250 / defence 1.029 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.885 / defence 0.938. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.315. Data: 52 SC Paderborn 07 games / 52 Fortuna Düsseldorf games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 49% | Draw 24% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 27%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 2.04 | Draw 4.17 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 3.70. SC Paderborn 07 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SC Paderborn 07 are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Fortuna Düsseldorf (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Paderborn 07 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. This conflicts with form data: SC Paderborn 07 40% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Paderborn 07 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Home Deluxe Arena • Kick-off: Friday 3 Feb 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 49% | Draw 24% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG SC Paderborn 07 1.68 / Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.250 / def 1.029 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.885 / def 0.938 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.315 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Paderborn 07 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kick off?
SC Paderborn 07 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 3 February 2023 at Home Deluxe Arena.
What was the final score in SC Paderborn 07 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
SC Paderborn 07 4 - 1 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Where is SC Paderborn 07 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf being played?
The match is being played at Home Deluxe Arena.
What competition is SC Paderborn 07 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf part of?
SC Paderborn 07 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Paderborn 07 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our statistical model gives SC Paderborn 07 a 49% chance of winning, Fortuna Düsseldorf a 27% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both SC Paderborn 07 and Fortuna Düsseldorf will score (BTTS).
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Record (3 meetings): SC Paderborn 07 1W | Draws 1 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 1W.
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and Fortuna Düsseldorf in?
SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates SC Paderborn 07's attack at 1.25x the league average against Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.68 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack versus SC Paderborn 07's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
49%
2.06
24%
4.14
27%
3.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Total xG
2.87
1.20
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
2.06
49%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
3.66
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
19%
5.34
Win to Nil
15%
6.82
5%
19.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 6.8 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.3 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Paderborn 07 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are SC Paderborn 07 and Fortuna Düsseldorf expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.20 for Fortuna Düsseldorf, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Paderborn 07 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SC Paderborn 07's recent record stands at 22W 14D 16L from 52 games, a 1.54 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for SC Paderborn 07 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fortuna Düsseldorf, meanwhile, have gone 20W 13D 19L across 52 games — 1.40 PPG, with W-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Fortuna Düsseldorf is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: SC Paderborn 07 on 1.54 PPG, Fortuna Düsseldorf on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, SC Paderborn 07 have managed 10W 7D 9L from 26 games — 1.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's away record stands at 8W 6D 12L across 26 trips, a 1.15 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
SC Paderborn 07 are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Düsseldorf are on 1.42 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 52 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and Fortuna Düsseldorf in coming into this match?
SC Paderborn 07 have gone 22W 14D 16L in their last 52 games (1.54 PPG), while Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 20W 13D 19L in their last 52 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Paderborn 07 at home or Fortuna Düsseldorf away?
SC Paderborn 07's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Paderborn 07 at home: 1.42 PPG; Fortuna Düsseldorf away: 1.15 PPG.
Have SC Paderborn 07 or Fortuna Düsseldorf been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Paderborn 07 have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Fortuna Düsseldorf in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SC Paderborn 07 and Fortuna Düsseldorf runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Fortuna Düsseldorf go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Feb 2023, when SC Paderborn 07 won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SC Paderborn 07's record when hosting Fortuna Düsseldorf specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
SC Paderborn 07
2
Draws
4
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
From 10 meetings on record, SC Paderborn 07 have won 4, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SC Paderborn 07 and Fortuna Düsseldorf last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Fortuna Düsseldorf 2-1 SC Paderborn 07.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Fortuna Düsseldorf see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Paderborn 07 62%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (SC Paderborn 07) and 42% (Fortuna Düsseldorf).
On the defensive side: Fortuna Düsseldorf in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Paderborn 07 home games / Fortuna Düsseldorf away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Paderborn 07 play Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of SC Paderborn 07's recent matches and 46% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SC Paderborn 07 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 65% of SC Paderborn 07's recent games and 42% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SC Paderborn 07 and Fortuna Düsseldorf tend to score early?
SC Paderborn 07 have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Fortuna Düsseldorf in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SC Paderborn 07 run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Fortuna Düsseldorf.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Paderborn 07 beat Fortuna Düsseldorf 4-1 at Home Deluxe Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 1.68 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.20 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. SC Paderborn 07 beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.25 / defence 1.03 against Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.89 / defence 0.94, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 49% | Draw 24% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 27%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 64%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SC Paderborn 07 1.54 PPG, Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Paderborn 07 win broke the near-deadlock. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.