SC Paderborn 07 1-1 Fortuna Düsseldorf – Result & Analysis

Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as SC Paderborn 07 take on Fortuna Düsseldorf.

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Match Analysis

SC Paderborn 07 host Fortuna Düsseldorf at Benteler-Arena in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 12 March 2022 at 12:30 UTC.

Form Guide

SC Paderborn 07 — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Benteler-Arena, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 1W 4D 5L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Fortuna Düsseldorf have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Düsseldorf, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Fortuna Düsseldorf's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — SC Paderborn 07 at 1.00 PPG versus Fortuna Düsseldorf's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, SC Paderborn 07 have won 1, Fortuna Düsseldorf 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2021, ended 3–2 with SC Paderborn 07 winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

SC Paderborn 07 in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

Fortuna Düsseldorf in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Paderborn 07 72% and Fortuna Düsseldorf 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Paderborn 07 64% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 1.19 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.936 / defence 1.302 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.555 / defence 1.073. League average goals — home 1.185 / away 1.476. Data: 25 SC Paderborn 07 games / 25 Fortuna Düsseldorf games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 35% | Draw 36% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 29%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 2.86 | Draw 2.78 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 3.45. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 29% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

Poisson projects 2.26 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: SC Paderborn 07 80% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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