SC Paderborn 07 1-2 FC St. Pauli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SC Paderborn 07 at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Paderborn 07 vs FC St. Pauli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 23 as SC Paderborn 07 welcome FC St. Pauli to Home Deluxe Arena. Kick-off is set for Friday 3 March 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
SC Paderborn 07 — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Paderborn 07 at Home Deluxe Arena this season: 7W 0D 3L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — SC Paderborn 07 are significantly better at Home Deluxe Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, FC St. Pauli have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC St. Pauli's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (SC Paderborn 07) versus 1.80 (FC St. Pauli). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for SC Paderborn 07, 0 for FC St. Pauli and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
SC Paderborn 07 in-play tendencies (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
FC St. Pauli in-play tendencies (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Paderborn 07 57% versus FC St. Pauli 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Paderborn 07 62% | FC St. Pauli 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 2.07 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.331 / defence 0.891 | FC St. Pauli attack 1.006 / defence 1.091. League average goals — home 1.426 / away 1.278. SC Paderborn 07 carry an above-average attack strength of 1.331 — their λ of 2.07 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 56 SC Paderborn 07 games / 56 FC St. Pauli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 59% | Draw 21% | FC St. Pauli 20%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 1.69 | Draw 4.76 | FC St. Pauli 5.00. The model has a clear lean to SC Paderborn 07 (59%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.07 / 1.15) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SC Paderborn 07 are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.22 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: SC Paderborn 07 50% | FC St. Pauli 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Paderborn 07 vs FC St. Pauli | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Home Deluxe Arena • Kick-off: Friday 3 Mar 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 59% | Draw 21% | FC St. Pauli 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 60% | xG SC Paderborn 07 2.07 / FC St. Pauli 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.331 / def 0.891 | FC St. Pauli attack 1.006 / def 1.091 | league avg home 1.426 / away 1.278 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Expected Goals
1.15
FC St. Pauli xG
60%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Paderborn 07 vs FC St. Pauli kick off?
SC Paderborn 07 vs FC St. Pauli kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 3 March 2023 at Home Deluxe Arena.
What was the final score in SC Paderborn 07 vs FC St. Pauli?
SC Paderborn 07 1 - 2 FC St. Pauli.
Where is SC Paderborn 07 vs FC St. Pauli being played?
The match is being played at Home Deluxe Arena.
What competition is SC Paderborn 07 vs FC St. Pauli part of?
SC Paderborn 07 vs FC St. Pauli is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Paderborn 07 vs FC St. Pauli?
Our statistical model gives SC Paderborn 07 a 59% chance of winning, FC St. Pauli a 20% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs FC St. Pauli?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both SC Paderborn 07 and FC St. Pauli will score (BTTS).
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs FC St. Pauli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and FC St. Pauli?
Record (3 meetings): SC Paderborn 07 1W | Draws 2 | FC St. Pauli 0W.
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and FC St. Pauli in?
SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. FC St. Pauli (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from SC Paderborn 07's attack rating (1.33) and FC St. Pauli's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 2.07 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC St. Pauli's attack versus SC Paderborn 07's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
59%
1.71
21%
4.78
20%
4.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
2 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Total xG
3.22
1.15
FC St. Pauli xG
1.71
59%
Home win
4.78
21%
Draw
4.89
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
13%
7.92
Win to Nil
19%
5.37
3%
38.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Paderborn 07 vs FC St. Pauli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are SC Paderborn 07 and FC St. Pauli expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.15 for FC St. Pauli, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Paderborn 07 vs FC St. Pauli?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SC Paderborn 07's recent record stands at 25W 15D 16L from 56 games, a 1.61 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for SC Paderborn 07 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC St. Pauli, meanwhile, have gone 24W 17D 15L across 56 games — 1.59 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for FC St. Pauli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: SC Paderborn 07 on 1.61 PPG, FC St. Pauli on 1.59. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, SC Paderborn 07 have managed 12W 7D 9L from 28 games — 1.54 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC St. Pauli's away record stands at 7W 8D 13L across 28 trips, a 1.04 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.59 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC St. Pauli's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Paderborn 07 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SC Paderborn 07 are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; FC St. Pauli are on 1.62 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 56 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
FC St. Pauli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and FC St. Pauli in coming into this match?
SC Paderborn 07 have gone 25W 15D 16L in their last 56 games (1.61 PPG), while FC St. Pauli have gone 24W 17D 15L in their last 56 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Paderborn 07 at home or FC St. Pauli away?
SC Paderborn 07's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Paderborn 07 at home: 1.54 PPG; FC St. Pauli away: 1.04 PPG.
Have SC Paderborn 07 or FC St. Pauli been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Paderborn 07 have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, FC St. Pauli in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SC Paderborn 07 and FC St. Pauli runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
SC Paderborn 07's record when hosting FC St. Pauli specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
SC Paderborn 07
3
Draws
2
FC St. Pauli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and FC St. Pauli?
From 6 meetings on record, SC Paderborn 07 have won 1, FC St. Pauli have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SC Paderborn 07 and FC St. Pauli last play each other?
They last met on 31 March 2024, when FC St. Pauli 2-1 SC Paderborn 07.
Who has won more matches between SC Paderborn 07 and FC St. Pauli?
FC St. Pauli have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Paderborn 07 61%, FC St. Pauli 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for SC Paderborn 07 and 57% for FC St. Pauli. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC St. Pauli in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Paderborn 07 home games / FC St. Pauli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Paderborn 07 play FC St. Pauli?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of SC Paderborn 07's games and 64% of FC St. Pauli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Paderborn 07 vs FC St. Pauli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of SC Paderborn 07's matches and 57% of FC St. Pauli's.
Do SC Paderborn 07 and FC St. Pauli tend to score early?
SC Paderborn 07 have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, FC St. Pauli in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC St. Pauli defy the odds to beat SC Paderborn 07 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC St. Pauli beat SC Paderborn 07 1-2 at Home Deluxe Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 2.07 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.15 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. SC Paderborn 07 fell 1.1 short of their projected output. FC St. Pauli outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.33 / defence 0.89 against FC St. Pauli attack 1.01 / defence 1.09, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 59% | Draw 21% | FC St. Pauli 20%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a FC St. Pauli win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 62%, FC St. Pauli 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SC Paderborn 07 1.61 PPG, FC St. Pauli 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC St. Pauli win broke the near-deadlock. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.04 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.