SC Paderborn 07 1-2 1. FC Heidenheim – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SC Paderborn 07 at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Heidenheim fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees 1. FC Heidenheim travel to Benteler-Arena to take on SC Paderborn 07. The game is scheduled for Saturday 18 December 2021, 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SC Paderborn 07 stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D D D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Paderborn 07's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 4L across 9 games at Benteler-Arena this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, 1. FC Heidenheim have recorded 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Heidenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Heidenheim away from home this season: 3W 0D 5L from 8 away games — 1.12 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (SC Paderborn 07) versus 1.50 (1. FC Heidenheim). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for SC Paderborn 07, 0 for 1. FC Heidenheim and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 24 Jul 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
SC Paderborn 07 trading profile (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
1. FC Heidenheim trading profile (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Paderborn 07 71% versus 1. FC Heidenheim 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Paderborn 07 59% | 1. FC Heidenheim 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 1.42 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.762 / defence 1.148 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.744 / defence 1.464. League average goals — home 1.277 / away 1.267. SC Paderborn 07's attack strength of 0.762 is below the league average — the 1.42 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. 1. FC Heidenheim bring a strong defensive rating of 1.464 — this is suppressing SC Paderborn 07's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 SC Paderborn 07 games / 17 1. FC Heidenheim games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 42% | Draw 32% | 1. FC Heidenheim 26%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 2.38 | Draw 3.12 | 1. FC Heidenheim 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SC Paderborn 07 are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Paderborn 07 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SC Paderborn 07 78% | 1. FC Heidenheim 38% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Heidenheim | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Benteler-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Dec 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 42% | Draw 32% | 1. FC Heidenheim 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 53% | xG SC Paderborn 07 1.42 / 1. FC Heidenheim 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.762 / def 1.148 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.744 / def 1.464 | league avg home 1.277 / away 1.267 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Expected Goals
1.08
1. FC Heidenheim xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Heidenheim kick off?
SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Heidenheim kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 18 December 2021 at Benteler-Arena.
What was the final score in SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
SC Paderborn 07 1 - 2 1. FC Heidenheim.
Where is SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Heidenheim being played?
The match is being played at Benteler-Arena.
What competition is SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Heidenheim part of?
SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Heidenheim is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our statistical model gives SC Paderborn 07 a 42% chance of winning, 1. FC Heidenheim a 26% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Heidenheim will score (BTTS).
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Heidenheim have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Heidenheim?
Record (1 meetings): SC Paderborn 07 0W | Draws 1 | 1. FC Heidenheim 0W.
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Heidenheim in?
SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-D-L. 1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
SC Paderborn 07's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against 1. FC Heidenheim's defensive record (1.46x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. The same calculation in reverse, 1. FC Heidenheim's attack versus SC Paderborn 07's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
42%
2.37
32%
3.16
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Total xG
2.51
1.08
1. FC Heidenheim xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
14%
6.98
6%
15.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.6 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.0 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Heidenheim expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.08 for 1. FC Heidenheim, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 17 outings, SC Paderborn 07 have picked up 1.59 PPG on a 7W 6D 4L record — W-D-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for SC Paderborn 07 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
1. FC Heidenheim's form line: 8W 3D 6L from 17 games, 1.59 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-L. The sample for 1. FC Heidenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: SC Paderborn 07 on 1.59 PPG, 1. FC Heidenheim on 1.59. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, SC Paderborn 07 have posted 1.00 PPG from 8 outings (2W 2D 4L). That actually lags their 1.59 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 3W 0D 5L from 8 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.59 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of 1. FC Heidenheim's season.
Goals in Recent Form
SC Paderborn 07 are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Heidenheim are on 1.24 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 17 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
1. FC Heidenheim
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Heidenheim in coming into this match?
SC Paderborn 07 have gone 7W 6D 4L in their last 17 games (1.59 PPG), while 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 8W 3D 6L in their last 17 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Paderborn 07 at home or 1. FC Heidenheim away?
1. FC Heidenheim's away record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Paderborn 07 at home: 1.00 PPG; 1. FC Heidenheim away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Nov 2022, when 1. FC Heidenheim won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SC Paderborn 07's record when hosting 1. FC Heidenheim specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
SC Paderborn 07
1
Draws
2
1. FC Heidenheim
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Heidenheim?
From 4 meetings on record, SC Paderborn 07 have won 1, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Heidenheim last play each other?
They last met on 14 May 2023, when SC Paderborn 07 3-2 1. FC Heidenheim.
Who has won more matches between SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Heidenheim?
1. FC Heidenheim have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
1. FC Heidenheim see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Paderborn 07 75%, 1. FC Heidenheim 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (SC Paderborn 07) and 62% (1. FC Heidenheim). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 12% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Heidenheim in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Paderborn 07 home games / 1. FC Heidenheim away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Paderborn 07 play 1. FC Heidenheim?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of SC Paderborn 07's games and 38% of 1. FC Heidenheim's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Heidenheim usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of SC Paderborn 07's matches and 62% of 1. FC Heidenheim's.
Do SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Heidenheim tend to score early?
SC Paderborn 07 have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, 1. FC Heidenheim in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as 1. FC Heidenheim defy the odds to beat SC Paderborn 07 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Heidenheim beat SC Paderborn 07 1-2 at Benteler-Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 1.42 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.08 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. 1. FC Heidenheim outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.76 / defence 1.15 against 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.74 / defence 1.46, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 42% | Draw 32% | 1. FC Heidenheim 26%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual 1. FC Heidenheim win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 59%, 1. FC Heidenheim 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SC Paderborn 07 1.59 PPG, 1. FC Heidenheim 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Heidenheim win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.