Karlsruher SC 0-2 Fortuna Düsseldorf – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Karlsruher SC at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Karlsruher SC vs Fortuna Düsseldorf fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 13 as Karlsruher SC welcome Fortuna Düsseldorf to BBBank Wildpark. Kick-off is set for Sunday 23 October 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Karlsruher SC have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Karlsruher SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Karlsruher SC at BBBank Wildpark this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fortuna Düsseldorf stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Düsseldorf, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
On current form, Karlsruher SC have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Karlsruher SC have won 0, Fortuna Düsseldorf 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Apr 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Karlsruher SC trading profile (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Fortuna Düsseldorf trading profile (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Karlsruher SC 65% and Fortuna Düsseldorf 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Karlsruher SC 70% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Karlsruher SC 1.65 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karlsruher SC attack 1.108 / defence 0.973 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.812 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 1.490 / away 1.249. Data: 46 Karlsruher SC games / 46 Fortuna Düsseldorf games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Karlsruher SC 51% | Draw 28% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 21%. Fair-value odds: Karlsruher SC 1.96 | Draw 3.57 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 4.76. Karlsruher SC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Karlsruher SC as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Karlsruher SC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Karlsruher SC 70% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Karlsruher SC vs Fortuna Düsseldorf | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: BBBank Wildpark • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Oct 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Karlsruher SC 51% | Draw 28% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Karlsruher SC 1.65 / Fortuna Düsseldorf 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Karlsruher SC attack 1.108 / def 0.973 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.812 / def 1.001 | league avg home 1.490 / away 1.249 • Poisson stance: Karlsruher SC (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Karlsruher SC xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Karlsruher SC vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kick off?
Karlsruher SC vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 23 October 2022 at BBBank Wildpark.
What was the final score in Karlsruher SC vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Karlsruher SC 0 - 2 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Where is Karlsruher SC vs Fortuna Düsseldorf being played?
The match is being played at BBBank Wildpark.
What competition is Karlsruher SC vs Fortuna Düsseldorf part of?
Karlsruher SC vs Fortuna Düsseldorf is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Karlsruher SC vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our statistical model gives Karlsruher SC a 51% chance of winning, Fortuna Düsseldorf a 21% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Karlsruher SC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Karlsruher SC vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Karlsruher SC and Fortuna Düsseldorf will score (BTTS).
Will Karlsruher SC vs Fortuna Düsseldorf have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Karlsruher SC and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Record (2 meetings): Karlsruher SC 0W | Draws 1 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 1W.
What form are Karlsruher SC and Fortuna Düsseldorf in?
Karlsruher SC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Karlsruher SC's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Fortuna Düsseldorf's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. The same calculation in reverse, Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack versus Karlsruher SC's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Karlsruher SC Win
51%
1.95
28%
3.60
21%
4.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Karlsruher SC xG
Total xG
2.64
0.99
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
4.78
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
19%
5.22
Win to Nil
19%
5.23
4%
24.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 11.6 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.6 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Karlsruher SC vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Karlsruher SC and Fortuna Düsseldorf expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Karlsruher SC and 0.99 for Fortuna Düsseldorf, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Karlsruher SC vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Karlsruher SC come into this having played 46 games, going 14W 16D 16L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-L. The sample for Karlsruher SC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fortuna Düsseldorf sit at 1.33 PPG from 46 outings (16W 13D 17L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Fortuna Düsseldorf is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Karlsruher SC on 1.26 PPG, Fortuna Düsseldorf on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Karlsruher SC's home form reads 8W 10D 5L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Fortuna Düsseldorf have taken 1.04 points per game from 23 outings (6W 6D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Karlsruher SC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Karlsruher SC are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Düsseldorf are on 1.41 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Karlsruher SC have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Karlsruher SC
Blended
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Karlsruher SC and Fortuna Düsseldorf in coming into this match?
Karlsruher SC have gone 14W 16D 16L in their last 46 games (1.26 PPG), while Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 16W 13D 17L in their last 46 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Karlsruher SC at home or Fortuna Düsseldorf away?
Karlsruher SC's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Karlsruher SC at home: 1.48 PPG; Fortuna Düsseldorf away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Karlsruher SC and Fortuna Düsseldorf runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Karlsruher SC's record when hosting Fortuna Düsseldorf specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Karlsruher SC
5
Draws
5
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Karlsruher SC and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
From 10 meetings on record, Karlsruher SC have won 0, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 5, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Karlsruher SC and Fortuna Düsseldorf last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Karlsruher SC 1-1 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Who has won more matches between Karlsruher SC and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Karlsruher SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Fortuna Düsseldorf see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Karlsruher SC 70%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (Karlsruher SC) and 44% (Fortuna Düsseldorf). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fortuna Düsseldorf in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Karlsruher SC home games / Fortuna Düsseldorf away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Karlsruher SC play Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Karlsruher SC's games and 48% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Karlsruher SC vs Fortuna Düsseldorf usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Karlsruher SC's matches and 44% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's.
Do Karlsruher SC and Fortuna Düsseldorf tend to score early?
Karlsruher SC have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Fortuna Düsseldorf in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fortuna Düsseldorf cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Karlsruher SC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Düsseldorf beat Karlsruher SC 0-2 at BBBank Wildpark, Regular Season - 13, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Karlsruher SC 1.65 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 0.99 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Karlsruher SC fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Fortuna Düsseldorf outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karlsruher SC attack 1.11 / defence 0.97 against Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.81 / defence 1.00, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Karlsruher SC 51% | Draw 28% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 21%, with Karlsruher SC to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Fortuna Düsseldorf win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karlsruher SC 70%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Karlsruher SC's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Karlsruher SC 1.26 PPG, Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fortuna Düsseldorf win broke the near-deadlock. Karlsruher SC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.