SSV Jahn Regensburg 1-1 Hannover 96 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hannover 96 at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hannover 96 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 21 as SSV Jahn Regensburg welcome Hannover 96 to Jahnstadion Regensburg. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 February 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SSV Jahn Regensburg stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SSV Jahn Regensburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Jahnstadion Regensburg this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — SSV Jahn Regensburg are significantly better at Jahnstadion Regensburg than their overall form suggests.
Hannover 96 — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Hannover 96, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hannover 96 away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.80 PPG, Hannover 96 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for SSV Jahn Regensburg, 1 for Hannover 96 and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2022, ended 0–1 with Hannover 96 winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
SSV Jahn Regensburg in-play and half-time data (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Hannover 96 in-play and half-time data (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SSV Jahn Regensburg 48% versus Hannover 96 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SSV Jahn Regensburg 54% | Hannover 96 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.22 xG and Hannover 96 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.844 / defence 1.254 | Hannover 96 attack 0.874 / defence 0.994. League average goals — home 1.452 / away 1.340. Data: 54 SSV Jahn Regensburg games / 54 Hannover 96 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SSV Jahn Regensburg 31% | Draw 26% | Hannover 96 43%. Fair-value odds: SSV Jahn Regensburg 3.23 | Draw 3.85 | Hannover 96 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hannover 96 at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hannover 96 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: SSV Jahn Regensburg 40% | Hannover 96 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hannover 96 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Jahnstadion Regensburg • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Feb 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SSV Jahn Regensburg 31% | Draw 26% | Hannover 96 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.22 / Hannover 96 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.844 / def 1.254 | Hannover 96 attack 0.874 / def 0.994 | league avg home 1.452 / away 1.340 • Poisson stance: Hannover 96 (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Hannover 96 xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hannover 96 kick off?
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hannover 96 kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 18 February 2023 at Jahnstadion Regensburg.
What was the final score in SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hannover 96?
SSV Jahn Regensburg 1 - 1 Hannover 96.
Where is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hannover 96 being played?
The match is being played at Jahnstadion Regensburg.
What competition is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hannover 96 part of?
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hannover 96 is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hannover 96?
Our statistical model gives SSV Jahn Regensburg a 31% chance of winning, Hannover 96 a 43% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Hannover 96 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hannover 96?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both SSV Jahn Regensburg and Hannover 96 will score (BTTS).
Will SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hannover 96 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Jahn Regensburg and Hannover 96?
Record (3 meetings): SSV Jahn Regensburg 1W | Draws 1 | Hannover 96 1W.
What form are SSV Jahn Regensburg and Hannover 96 in?
SSV Jahn Regensburg (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Hannover 96 (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack rating (0.84) and Hannover 96's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hannover 96's attack versus SSV Jahn Regensburg's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 0-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hannover 96 Win
31%
3.19
26%
3.90
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
Total xG
2.69
1.47
Hannover 96 xG
3.19
31%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
23%
4.34
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
7%
13.85
13%
7.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 10.0 | 7.3 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.2 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.4 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hannover 96?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are SSV Jahn Regensburg and Hannover 96 expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1.47 for Hannover 96, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hannover 96?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 54 outings, SSV Jahn Regensburg have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 15W 14D 25L record — D-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for SSV Jahn Regensburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hannover 96's form line: 19W 13D 22L from 54 games, 1.30 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-L. The sample for Hannover 96 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: SSV Jahn Regensburg on 1.09 PPG, Hannover 96 on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, SSV Jahn Regensburg have posted 1.30 PPG from 27 outings (9W 8D 10L).
On the road, Hannover 96 have gone 8W 5D 14L from 27 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
SSV Jahn Regensburg are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Hannover 96 are on 1.19 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Defensively: Hannover 96 in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Blended
Hannover 96
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SSV Jahn Regensburg and Hannover 96 in coming into this match?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 15W 14D 25L in their last 54 games (1.09 PPG), while Hannover 96 have gone 19W 13D 22L in their last 54 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SSV Jahn Regensburg at home or Hannover 96 away?
SSV Jahn Regensburg's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SSV Jahn Regensburg at home: 1.30 PPG; Hannover 96 away: 1.07 PPG.
Have SSV Jahn Regensburg or Hannover 96 been keeping clean sheets recently?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Hannover 96 in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SSV Jahn Regensburg and Hannover 96 runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Hannover 96 have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's record when hosting Hannover 96 specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
SSV Jahn Regensburg
2
Draws
3
Hannover 96
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Jahn Regensburg and Hannover 96?
From 6 meetings on record, SSV Jahn Regensburg have won 1, Hannover 96 have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SSV Jahn Regensburg and Hannover 96 last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2025, when SSV Jahn Regensburg 0-1 Hannover 96.
Who has won more matches between SSV Jahn Regensburg and Hannover 96?
Hannover 96 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SSV Jahn Regensburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Hannover 96 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SSV Jahn Regensburg 59%, Hannover 96 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 63% for Hannover 96. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SSV Jahn Regensburg have failed to score in 26% of games; Hannover 96 in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SSV Jahn Regensburg home games / Hannover 96 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SSV Jahn Regensburg play Hannover 96?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's games and 52% of Hannover 96's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hannover 96 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's matches and 63% of Hannover 96's.
Do SSV Jahn Regensburg and Hannover 96 tend to score early?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Hannover 96 in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SSV Jahn Regensburg and Hannover 96 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SSV Jahn Regensburg and Hannover 96 finished level at 1-1 at Jahnstadion Regensburg, Regular Season - 21, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.22 xG and Hannover 96 1.47 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.84 / defence 1.25 against Hannover 96 attack 0.87 / defence 0.99, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SSV Jahn Regensburg 31% | Draw 26% | Hannover 96 43%, with Hannover 96 to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SSV Jahn Regensburg 54%, Hannover 96 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Hannover 96's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.09 PPG, Hannover 96 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.