SSV Jahn Regensburg 0-0 Fortuna Düsseldorf – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SSV Jahn Regensburg at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SSV Jahn Regensburg host Fortuna Düsseldorf at Jahnstadion Regensburg in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 27 February 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
SSV Jahn Regensburg — All Games: 2W 0D 8L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SSV Jahn Regensburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's home record at Jahnstadion Regensburg: 3W 2D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — SSV Jahn Regensburg are significantly better at Jahnstadion Regensburg than their overall form suggests.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Fortuna Düsseldorf have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Düsseldorf, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.60 PPG, Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for SSV Jahn Regensburg, 0 for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
SSV Jahn Regensburg in-play and half-time data (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 91% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 91% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Fortuna Düsseldorf in-play and half-time data (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SSV Jahn Regensburg 61% and Fortuna Düsseldorf 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SSV Jahn Regensburg 74% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.62 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 1.155 / defence 1.408 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.653 / defence 1.255. League average goals — home 1.118 / away 1.462. Fortuna Düsseldorf bring a strong defensive rating of 1.255 — this is suppressing SSV Jahn Regensburg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 SSV Jahn Regensburg games / 23 Fortuna Düsseldorf games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SSV Jahn Regensburg 41% | Draw 30% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 29%. Fair-value odds: SSV Jahn Regensburg 2.44 | Draw 3.33 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.62 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SSV Jahn Regensburg are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SSV Jahn Regensburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SSV Jahn Regensburg 90% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Jahnstadion Regensburg • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Feb 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SSV Jahn Regensburg 41% | Draw 30% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 62% | xG SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.62 / Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 1.155 / def 1.408 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.653 / def 1.255 | league avg home 1.118 / away 1.462 • Poisson stance: SSV Jahn Regensburg (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kick off?
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 27 February 2022 at Jahnstadion Regensburg.
What was the final score in SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
SSV Jahn Regensburg 0 - 0 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Where is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf being played?
The match is being played at Jahnstadion Regensburg.
What competition is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf part of?
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our statistical model gives SSV Jahn Regensburg a 41% chance of winning, Fortuna Düsseldorf a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making SSV Jahn Regensburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both SSV Jahn Regensburg and Fortuna Düsseldorf will score (BTTS).
Will SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Jahn Regensburg and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Record (1 meetings): SSV Jahn Regensburg 0W | Draws 1 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 0W.
What form are SSV Jahn Regensburg and Fortuna Düsseldorf in?
SSV Jahn Regensburg (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
SSV Jahn Regensburg's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Fortuna Düsseldorf's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. The same calculation in reverse, Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack versus SSV Jahn Regensburg's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SSV Jahn Regensburg Win
41%
2.45
30%
3.28
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
Total xG
2.96
1.34
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
20%
5.06
Win to Nil
11%
9.37
6%
17.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.9 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.2 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.1 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are SSV Jahn Regensburg and Fortuna Düsseldorf expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1.34 for Fortuna Düsseldorf, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SSV Jahn Regensburg come into this having played 23 games, going 9W 4D 10L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L. The sample for SSV Jahn Regensburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fortuna Düsseldorf sit at 1.13 PPG from 23 outings (7W 5D 11L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Fortuna Düsseldorf is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: SSV Jahn Regensburg on 1.35 PPG, Fortuna Düsseldorf on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
SSV Jahn Regensburg's home form reads 4W 2D 5L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Fortuna Düsseldorf have taken 1.18 points per game from 11 outings (4W 1D 6L).
The Goals Picture
SSV Jahn Regensburg are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Düsseldorf are on 1.22 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SSV Jahn Regensburg have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Fortuna Düsseldorf in 61%.
Last 23 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Blended
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SSV Jahn Regensburg and Fortuna Düsseldorf in coming into this match?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 9W 4D 10L in their last 23 games (1.35 PPG), while Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 7W 5D 11L in their last 23 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SSV Jahn Regensburg at home or Fortuna Düsseldorf away?
SSV Jahn Regensburg's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SSV Jahn Regensburg at home: 1.27 PPG; Fortuna Düsseldorf away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SSV Jahn Regensburg and Fortuna Düsseldorf runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Fortuna Düsseldorf go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Aug 2022, when Fortuna Düsseldorf won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's record when hosting Fortuna Düsseldorf specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
SSV Jahn Regensburg
2
Draws
4
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Jahn Regensburg and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
From 6 meetings on record, SSV Jahn Regensburg have won 0, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SSV Jahn Regensburg and Fortuna Düsseldorf last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2025, when Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-0 SSV Jahn Regensburg.
Who has won more matches between SSV Jahn Regensburg and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SSV Jahn Regensburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Fortuna Düsseldorf see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — SSV Jahn Regensburg at 91%, Fortuna Düsseldorf at 46%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 91% for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 46% for Fortuna Düsseldorf. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 82% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fortuna Düsseldorf in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SSV Jahn Regensburg home games / Fortuna Düsseldorf away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SSV Jahn Regensburg play Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 91% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's games and 46% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 91% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's matches and 46% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's.
Do SSV Jahn Regensburg and Fortuna Düsseldorf tend to score early?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Fortuna Düsseldorf in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at SSV Jahn Regensburg's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Jahnstadion Regensburg, Regular Season - 24, as SSV Jahn Regensburg and Fortuna Düsseldorf drew 0-0 in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.62 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.34 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. SSV Jahn Regensburg fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Fortuna Düsseldorf landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 1.16 / defence 1.41 against Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.65 / defence 1.25, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SSV Jahn Regensburg 41% | Draw 30% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 29%, with SSV Jahn Regensburg to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SSV Jahn Regensburg 74%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.35 PPG, Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. SSV Jahn Regensburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.18 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.