SSV Jahn Regensburg 4-1 FC Schalke 04 – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates FC Schalke 04 at 35%, yet in-form SSV Jahn Regensburg provide a compelling counter-argument — this SSV Jahn Regensburg vs FC Schalke 04 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SSV Jahn Regensburg host FC Schalke 04 at Jahnstadion Regensburg in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 21 August 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 outings — a 3.00 PPG return. Last five: W W W. They are averaging 2.67 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 3 games (100%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. SSV Jahn Regensburg have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Schalke 04 stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. FC Schalke 04 have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, FC Schalke 04 have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, SSV Jahn Regensburg have the edge — a 2.00 PPG advantage (3.00 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Profile
SSV Jahn Regensburg in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they keep a clean sheet 100% of the time.
FC Schalke 04 in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (SSV Jahn Regensburg 0% | FC Schalke 04 67%). Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SSV Jahn Regensburg 67% | FC Schalke 04 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.27 xG and FC Schalke 04 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 1.194 / defence 0.997 | FC Schalke 04 attack 1.011 / defence 1.030. League average goals — home 1.030 / away 1.350. Data: 3 SSV Jahn Regensburg games / 3 FC Schalke 04 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SSV Jahn Regensburg 31% | Draw 34% | FC Schalke 04 35%. Fair-value odds: SSV Jahn Regensburg 3.23 | Draw 2.94 | FC Schalke 04 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Schalke 04 are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form SSV Jahn Regensburg (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Schalke 04 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: SSV Jahn Regensburg 0% | FC Schalke 04 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SSV Jahn Regensburg vs FC Schalke 04 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Jahnstadion Regensburg • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Aug 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SSV Jahn Regensburg 31% | Draw 34% | FC Schalke 04 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 57% | xG SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.27 / FC Schalke 04 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 1.194 / def 0.997 | FC Schalke 04 attack 1.011 / def 1.030 | league avg home 1.030 / away 1.350 • Poisson stance: FC Schalke 04 (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
Expected Goals
1.36
FC Schalke 04 xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SSV Jahn Regensburg vs FC Schalke 04 kick off?
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs FC Schalke 04 kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 21 August 2021 at Jahnstadion Regensburg.
What was the final score in SSV Jahn Regensburg vs FC Schalke 04?
SSV Jahn Regensburg 4 - 1 FC Schalke 04.
Where is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs FC Schalke 04 being played?
The match is being played at Jahnstadion Regensburg.
What competition is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs FC Schalke 04 part of?
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs FC Schalke 04 is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SSV Jahn Regensburg vs FC Schalke 04?
Our statistical model gives SSV Jahn Regensburg a 31% chance of winning, FC Schalke 04 a 35% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making FC Schalke 04 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SSV Jahn Regensburg vs FC Schalke 04?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both SSV Jahn Regensburg and FC Schalke 04 will score (BTTS).
Will SSV Jahn Regensburg vs FC Schalke 04 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Jahn Regensburg and FC Schalke 04?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SSV Jahn Regensburg and FC Schalke 04 in?
SSV Jahn Regensburg (all comps): 3W-0D-0L in 3 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.67 / GA 0.00 | L5 W-W-W. FC Schalke 04 (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack at 1.19x the league average against FC Schalke 04's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Schalke 04's attack versus SSV Jahn Regensburg's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Schalke 04 Win
31%
3.23
34%
2.97
35%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
Total xG
2.63
1.36
FC Schalke 04 xG
3.23
31%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
2.82
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
8%
12.62
10%
10.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 9.8 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.5 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.9 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SSV Jahn Regensburg vs FC Schalke 04?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are SSV Jahn Regensburg and FC Schalke 04 expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1.36 for FC Schalke 04, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for SSV Jahn Regensburg vs FC Schalke 04?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SSV Jahn Regensburg come into this having played 3 games, going 3W 0D 0L for 3.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W. It's still early in the season for SSV Jahn Regensburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, FC Schalke 04 sit at 1.33 PPG from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L), a run that reads L-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for FC Schalke 04, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SSV Jahn Regensburg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.67 PPG clear of FC Schalke 04 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
SSV Jahn Regensburg are averaging 2.67 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; FC Schalke 04 are on 1.67 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SSV Jahn Regensburg have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; FC Schalke 04 in 67%.
Defensively: SSV Jahn Regensburg have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Early Season
FC Schalke 04
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SSV Jahn Regensburg and FC Schalke 04 in coming into this match?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 3W 0D 0L in their last 3 games (3.00 PPG), while FC Schalke 04 have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 (1.33 PPG).
Have SSV Jahn Regensburg or FC Schalke 04 been keeping clean sheets recently?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, FC Schalke 04 in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SSV Jahn Regensburg and FC Schalke 04 runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Aug 2021, when SSV Jahn Regensburg won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's record when hosting FC Schalke 04 specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
SSV Jahn Regensburg
0
Draws
2
FC Schalke 04
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Jahn Regensburg and FC Schalke 04?
From 4 meetings on record, SSV Jahn Regensburg have won 2, FC Schalke 04 have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SSV Jahn Regensburg and FC Schalke 04 last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2025, when SSV Jahn Regensburg 2-0 FC Schalke 04.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SSV Jahn Regensburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time.
FC Schalke 04 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — SSV Jahn Regensburg 0% BTTS, FC Schalke 04 67%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 67% for FC Schalke 04. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SSV Jahn Regensburg keep a clean sheet in 100% of their matches; FC Schalke 04 in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SSV Jahn Regensburg home games / FC Schalke 04 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SSV Jahn Regensburg play FC Schalke 04?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's recent matches and 67% of FC Schalke 04's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs FC Schalke 04 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's matches and 67% of FC Schalke 04's.
Do SSV Jahn Regensburg and FC Schalke 04 tend to score early?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, FC Schalke 04 in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SSV Jahn Regensburg run riot with a 4-1 hammering of FC Schalke 04.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SSV Jahn Regensburg beat FC Schalke 04 4-1 at Jahnstadion Regensburg, Regular Season - 4, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.27 xG and FC Schalke 04 1.36 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. SSV Jahn Regensburg beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 1.19 / defence 1.00 against FC Schalke 04 attack 1.01 / defence 1.03, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SSV Jahn Regensburg 31% | Draw 34% | FC Schalke 04 35%, with FC Schalke 04 to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual SSV Jahn Regensburg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SSV Jahn Regensburg 67%, FC Schalke 04 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 100% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Schalke 04's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SSV Jahn Regensburg arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.33. That form edge translated into the three points. SSV Jahn Regensburg scored 4 against a 2.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Schalke 04 shipped 4 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.