SSV Jahn Regensburg 0-0 1. FC Nürnberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SSV Jahn Regensburg at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Nürnberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Jahnstadion Regensburg plays host to SSV Jahn Regensburg versus 1. FC Nürnberg in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Saturday 6 August 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SSV Jahn Regensburg have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D L L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. SSV Jahn Regensburg have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Jahnstadion Regensburg, SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Jahnstadion Regensburg this season.
1. FC Nürnberg (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. 1. FC Nürnberg have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for SSV Jahn Regensburg, 0.90 for 1. FC Nürnberg — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for SSV Jahn Regensburg, 1 for 1. FC Nürnberg and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 19 Feb 2022, ended 0–2 with 1. FC Nürnberg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
SSV Jahn Regensburg — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
1. FC Nürnberg — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SSV Jahn Regensburg 56% versus 1. FC Nürnberg 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SSV Jahn Regensburg 53% | 1. FC Nürnberg 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.73 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 1.028 / defence 0.957 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.037 / defence 1.128. League average goals — home 1.491 / away 1.359. Data: 36 SSV Jahn Regensburg games / 36 1. FC Nürnberg games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: SSV Jahn Regensburg 46% | Draw 25% | 1. FC Nürnberg 29%. Fair-value odds: SSV Jahn Regensburg 2.17 | Draw 4.00 | 1. FC Nürnberg 3.45. SSV Jahn Regensburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.73 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SSV Jahn Regensburg are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SSV Jahn Regensburg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.08 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: SSV Jahn Regensburg 50% | 1. FC Nürnberg 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Nürnberg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Jahnstadion Regensburg • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Aug 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SSV Jahn Regensburg 46% | Draw 25% | 1. FC Nürnberg 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.73 / 1. FC Nürnberg 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 1.028 / def 0.957 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.037 / def 1.128 | league avg home 1.491 / away 1.359 • Poisson stance: SSV Jahn Regensburg (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
Expected Goals
1.35
1. FC Nürnberg xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Nürnberg kick off?
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Nürnberg kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 6 August 2022 at Jahnstadion Regensburg.
What was the final score in SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
SSV Jahn Regensburg 0 - 0 1. FC Nürnberg.
Where is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Nürnberg being played?
The match is being played at Jahnstadion Regensburg.
What competition is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Nürnberg part of?
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Nürnberg is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our statistical model gives SSV Jahn Regensburg a 46% chance of winning, 1. FC Nürnberg a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making SSV Jahn Regensburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Nürnberg will score (BTTS).
Will SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Nürnberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Nürnberg?
Record (2 meetings): SSV Jahn Regensburg 0W | Draws 1 | 1. FC Nürnberg 1W.
What form are SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Nürnberg in?
SSV Jahn Regensburg (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. 1. FC Nürnberg (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack rating (1.03) and 1. FC Nürnberg's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.73 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — 1. FC Nürnberg's attack (1.04x) against SSV Jahn Regensburg's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SSV Jahn Regensburg Win
46%
2.19
25%
4.00
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
Total xG
3.08
1.35
1. FC Nürnberg xG
2.19
46%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
26%
3.85
18%
5.64
Win to Nil
12%
8.43
5%
19.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.2 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 10.7 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.3 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Nürnberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1.35 for 1. FC Nürnberg, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SSV Jahn Regensburg come into this having played 36 games, going 12W 10D 14L for 1.28 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for SSV Jahn Regensburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, 1. FC Nürnberg sit at 1.50 PPG from 36 outings (15W 9D 12L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for 1. FC Nürnberg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for SSV Jahn Regensburg against 1.50 for 1. FC Nürnberg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
SSV Jahn Regensburg's home form reads 7W 4D 7L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.39 PPG return.
Away from home, 1. FC Nürnberg have taken 1.33 points per game from 18 outings (6W 6D 6L).
Attack vs Defence
SSV Jahn Regensburg are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Nürnberg are on 1.47 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 36 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Early Season
1. FC Nürnberg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Nürnberg in coming into this match?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 12W 10D 14L in their last 36 games (1.28 PPG), while 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 15W 9D 12L in their last 36 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SSV Jahn Regensburg at home or 1. FC Nürnberg away?
SSV Jahn Regensburg's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SSV Jahn Regensburg at home: 1.39 PPG; 1. FC Nürnberg away: 1.33 PPG.
Have SSV Jahn Regensburg or 1. FC Nürnberg been keeping clean sheets recently?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, 1. FC Nürnberg in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: 1. FC Nürnberg won 8-3 on 25 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against 1. FC Nürnberg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
SSV Jahn Regensburg
2
Draws
3
1. FC Nürnberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Nürnberg?
From 6 meetings on record, SSV Jahn Regensburg have won 1, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Nürnberg last play each other?
They last met on 30 March 2025, when SSV Jahn Regensburg 2-1 1. FC Nürnberg.
Who has won more matches between SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Nürnberg?
1. FC Nürnberg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SSV Jahn Regensburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
1. FC Nürnberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SSV Jahn Regensburg 67%, 1. FC Nürnberg 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 61% for 1. FC Nürnberg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SSV Jahn Regensburg home games / 1. FC Nürnberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SSV Jahn Regensburg play 1. FC Nürnberg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's games and 61% of 1. FC Nürnberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Nürnberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's matches and 61% of 1. FC Nürnberg's.
Do SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Nürnberg tend to score early?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, 1. FC Nürnberg in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at SSV Jahn Regensburg's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Nürnberg finished level at 0-0 at Jahnstadion Regensburg, Regular Season - 3, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.73 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.35 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. SSV Jahn Regensburg fell 1.7 short of their projected output. 1. FC Nürnberg landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 1.03 / defence 0.96 against 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.04 / defence 1.13, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it SSV Jahn Regensburg 46% | Draw 25% | 1. FC Nürnberg 29%, with SSV Jahn Regensburg to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SSV Jahn Regensburg 53%, 1. FC Nürnberg 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.28 PPG, 1. FC Nürnberg 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. SSV Jahn Regensburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line. 1. FC Nürnberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.