Holstein Kiel 2-1 Werder Bremen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Werder Bremen at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Holstein Kiel vs Werder Bremen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Holstein Kiel host Werder Bremen at Holstein-Stadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 27 November 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Holstein Kiel have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D D D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Holstein Kiel, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Holstein Kiel's home record at Holstein-Stadion: 2W 1D 5L from 8 2. Bundesliga appearances (0.88 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game.
Werder Bremen — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D D W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Werder Bremen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, Werder Bremen have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Holstein Kiel at 1.30 PPG versus Werder Bremen's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Holstein Kiel in-play and half-time data (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Werder Bremen in-play and half-time data (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Holstein Kiel 56% versus Werder Bremen 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Holstein Kiel 69% | Werder Bremen 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Holstein Kiel 1.19 xG and Werder Bremen 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Holstein Kiel attack 0.759 / defence 1.313 | Werder Bremen attack 0.895 / defence 1.284. League average goals — home 1.215 / away 1.318. Holstein Kiel's attack strength of 0.759 is below the league average — the 1.19 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Werder Bremen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.284 — this is suppressing Holstein Kiel's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Holstein Kiel games / 14 Werder Bremen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Holstein Kiel 26% | Draw 32% | Werder Bremen 42%. Fair-value odds: Holstein Kiel 3.85 | Draw 3.12 | Werder Bremen 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Werder Bremen as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Werder Bremen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Holstein Kiel 38% | Werder Bremen 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Holstein Kiel vs Werder Bremen | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Holstein-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Nov 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Holstein Kiel 26% | Draw 32% | Werder Bremen 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 58% | xG Holstein Kiel 1.19 / Werder Bremen 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Holstein Kiel attack 0.759 / def 1.313 | Werder Bremen attack 0.895 / def 1.284 | league avg home 1.215 / away 1.318 • Poisson stance: Werder Bremen (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Holstein Kiel xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Werder Bremen xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Holstein Kiel vs Werder Bremen kick off?
Holstein Kiel vs Werder Bremen kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 27 November 2021 at Holstein-Stadion.
What was the final score in Holstein Kiel vs Werder Bremen?
Holstein Kiel 2 - 1 Werder Bremen.
Where is Holstein Kiel vs Werder Bremen being played?
The match is being played at Holstein-Stadion.
What competition is Holstein Kiel vs Werder Bremen part of?
Holstein Kiel vs Werder Bremen is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Holstein Kiel vs Werder Bremen?
Our statistical model gives Holstein Kiel a 26% chance of winning, Werder Bremen a 42% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Werder Bremen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Holstein Kiel vs Werder Bremen?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Holstein Kiel and Werder Bremen will score (BTTS).
Will Holstein Kiel vs Werder Bremen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Holstein Kiel and Werder Bremen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Holstein Kiel and Werder Bremen in?
Holstein Kiel (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-D-W-L. Werder Bremen (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Holstein Kiel's attack rating (0.76) and Werder Bremen's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Werder Bremen's attack versus Holstein Kiel's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Werder Bremen Win
26%
3.90
32%
3.11
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Holstein Kiel xG
Total xG
2.73
1.55
Werder Bremen xG
3.90
26%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
21%
4.70
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
5%
18.35
13%
7.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 10.1 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.9 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.1 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Holstein Kiel vs Werder Bremen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Holstein Kiel and Werder Bremen expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Holstein Kiel and 1.55 for Werder Bremen, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Holstein Kiel vs Werder Bremen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Holstein Kiel's recent record stands at 4W 5D 7L from 16 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with D-D-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Holstein Kiel is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Werder Bremen, meanwhile, have gone 5W 5D 6L across 16 games — 1.25 PPG, with L-D-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Werder Bremen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Holstein Kiel on 1.06 PPG, Werder Bremen on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Holstein Kiel have managed 2W 1D 5L from 8 games — 0.88 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Werder Bremen's away record stands at 3W 2D 3L across 8 trips, a 1.38 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Werder Bremen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Holstein Kiel are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Werder Bremen are on 1.38 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 16 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Holstein Kiel
Blended
Werder Bremen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Holstein Kiel and Werder Bremen in coming into this match?
Holstein Kiel have gone 4W 5D 7L in their last 16 games (1.06 PPG), while Werder Bremen have gone 5W 5D 6L in their last 16 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Holstein Kiel at home or Werder Bremen away?
Werder Bremen's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Holstein Kiel at home: 0.88 PPG; Werder Bremen away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — 2. Bundesliga, Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Werder Bremen go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Mar 2025, when Werder Bremen won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Holstein Kiel's record when hosting Werder Bremen specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Holstein Kiel
0
Draws
2
Werder Bremen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Holstein Kiel and Werder Bremen?
From 4 meetings on record, Holstein Kiel have won 2, Werder Bremen have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Holstein Kiel and Werder Bremen last play each other?
They last met on 29 March 2025, when Holstein Kiel 0-3 Werder Bremen.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Holstein Kiel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Holstein Kiel 38%, Werder Bremen 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Holstein Kiel and 75% for Werder Bremen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 12% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Holstein Kiel have failed to score in 50% of games; Werder Bremen in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Holstein Kiel home games / Werder Bremen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Holstein Kiel play Werder Bremen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Holstein Kiel's recent matches and 38% of Werder Bremen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Holstein Kiel vs Werder Bremen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Holstein Kiel's matches and 75% of Werder Bremen's.
Do Holstein Kiel and Werder Bremen tend to score early?
Holstein Kiel have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Werder Bremen in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Holstein Kiel defy the odds to beat Werder Bremen 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Holstein Kiel beat Werder Bremen 2-1 at Holstein-Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Holstein Kiel 1.19 xG and Werder Bremen 1.55 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Holstein Kiel beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Holstein Kiel attack 0.76 / defence 1.31 against Werder Bremen attack 0.90 / defence 1.28, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Holstein Kiel 26% | Draw 32% | Werder Bremen 42%, with Werder Bremen to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Holstein Kiel win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Holstein Kiel 69%, Werder Bremen 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Holstein Kiel's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Werder Bremen's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Holstein Kiel 1.06 PPG, Werder Bremen 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Holstein Kiel win broke the near-deadlock. Holstein Kiel (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.