Holstein Kiel 1-1 SV Darmstadt 98 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SV Darmstadt 98 at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Holstein Kiel vs SV Darmstadt 98 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SV Darmstadt 98 make the trip to Holstein-Stadion to face Holstein Kiel in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Saturday 23 October 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Holstein Kiel have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D L W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Holstein Kiel, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Holstein Kiel have posted 1W 0D 5L at Holstein-Stadion — 0.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
SV Darmstadt 98 (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, SV Darmstadt 98 have posted 1W 1D 3L from 5 away outings — 0.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, SV Darmstadt 98 are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading Data
Holstein Kiel goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
SV Darmstadt 98 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Holstein Kiel 40% versus SV Darmstadt 98 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Holstein Kiel 80% | SV Darmstadt 98 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Holstein Kiel 1.14 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 2.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Holstein Kiel attack 0.719 / defence 1.479 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.061 / defence 1.467. League average goals — home 1.078 / away 1.429. Holstein Kiel's attack strength of 0.719 is below the league average — the 1.14 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. SV Darmstadt 98 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.467 — this is suppressing Holstein Kiel's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Holstein Kiel games / 10 SV Darmstadt 98 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Holstein Kiel 16% | Draw 24% | SV Darmstadt 98 60%. Fair-value odds: Holstein Kiel 6.25 | Draw 4.17 | SV Darmstadt 98 1.67. The model has a clear lean to SV Darmstadt 98 (60%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.14 / 2.24) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SV Darmstadt 98 as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.38 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Holstein Kiel 17% | SV Darmstadt 98 80%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Holstein Kiel vs SV Darmstadt 98 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Holstein-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Oct 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Holstein Kiel 16% | Draw 24% | SV Darmstadt 98 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 63% | xG Holstein Kiel 1.14 / SV Darmstadt 98 2.24 • Poisson strength factors: Holstein Kiel attack 0.719 / def 1.479 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.061 / def 1.467 | league avg home 1.078 / away 1.429 • Poisson stance: SV Darmstadt 98 (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Holstein Kiel xG
Expected Goals
2.24
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
63%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Holstein Kiel vs SV Darmstadt 98 kick off?
Holstein Kiel vs SV Darmstadt 98 kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 23 October 2021 at Holstein-Stadion.
What was the final score in Holstein Kiel vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Holstein Kiel 1 - 1 SV Darmstadt 98.
Where is Holstein Kiel vs SV Darmstadt 98 being played?
The match is being played at Holstein-Stadion.
What competition is Holstein Kiel vs SV Darmstadt 98 part of?
Holstein Kiel vs SV Darmstadt 98 is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Holstein Kiel vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our statistical model gives Holstein Kiel a 16% chance of winning, SV Darmstadt 98 a 60% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making SV Darmstadt 98 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Holstein Kiel vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Holstein Kiel and SV Darmstadt 98 will score (BTTS).
Will Holstein Kiel vs SV Darmstadt 98 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Holstein Kiel and SV Darmstadt 98?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Holstein Kiel and SV Darmstadt 98 in?
Holstein Kiel (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-W-L-D. SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Holstein Kiel's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against SV Darmstadt 98's defensive record (1.47x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. Flip it around — SV Darmstadt 98's attack (1.06x) against Holstein Kiel's defence (1.48x) — and the away total comes out at 2.24.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Darmstadt 98 Win
16%
6.33
24%
4.11
60%
1.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
0 – 2
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Holstein Kiel xG
Total xG
3.38
2.24
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
6.33
16%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
1.67
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
11%
9.40
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
2%
59.51
19%
5.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 7.6 | 8.6 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 3.9 | 8.7 | 9.7 | 7.3 | 4.1 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Holstein Kiel vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Holstein Kiel and SV Darmstadt 98 expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Holstein Kiel and 2.24 for SV Darmstadt 98, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Holstein Kiel vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Holstein Kiel come into this having played 10 games, going 2W 3D 5L for 0.90 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-D. The sample for Holstein Kiel is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SV Darmstadt 98 sit at 1.60 PPG from 10 outings (5W 1D 4L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for SV Darmstadt 98 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SV Darmstadt 98 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.70 PPG clear of Holstein Kiel — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Holstein Kiel's home form reads 1W 0D 4L across 5 games on their own ground, a 0.60 PPG return.
Away from home, SV Darmstadt 98 have taken 0.80 points per game from 5 outings (1W 1D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.60 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SV Darmstadt 98's season.
Attack vs Defence
Holstein Kiel are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; SV Darmstadt 98 are on 2.40 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 10 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Holstein Kiel
Blended
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Holstein Kiel and SV Darmstadt 98 in coming into this match?
Holstein Kiel have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 games (0.90 PPG), while SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Holstein Kiel at home or SV Darmstadt 98 away?
SV Darmstadt 98's away record (0.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Holstein Kiel at home: 0.60 PPG; SV Darmstadt 98 away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Holstein Kiel or SV Darmstadt 98 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Holstein Kiel have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, SV Darmstadt 98 in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SV Darmstadt 98 won 0-3 on 30 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Holstein Kiel have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against SV Darmstadt 98 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
0
Holstein Kiel
4
Draws
3
SV Darmstadt 98
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Holstein Kiel and SV Darmstadt 98?
From 7 meetings on record, Holstein Kiel have won 0, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Holstein Kiel and SV Darmstadt 98 last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when SV Darmstadt 98 2-2 Holstein Kiel.
Who has won more matches between Holstein Kiel and SV Darmstadt 98?
SV Darmstadt 98 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Holstein Kiel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Holstein Kiel 0%, SV Darmstadt 98 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Holstein Kiel and 100% for SV Darmstadt 98. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Holstein Kiel have failed to score in 80% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Holstein Kiel home games / SV Darmstadt 98 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Holstein Kiel play SV Darmstadt 98?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Holstein Kiel's recent matches and 80% of SV Darmstadt 98's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Holstein Kiel vs SV Darmstadt 98 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Holstein Kiel's matches and 100% of SV Darmstadt 98's.
Do Holstein Kiel and SV Darmstadt 98 tend to score early?
Holstein Kiel have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, SV Darmstadt 98 in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Holstein Kiel and SV Darmstadt 98 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Holstein-Stadion, Regular Season - 11, as Holstein Kiel and SV Darmstadt 98 drew 1-1 in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Holstein Kiel 1.14 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 2.24 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. SV Darmstadt 98 landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Holstein Kiel attack 0.72 / defence 1.48 against SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.06 / defence 1.47, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Holstein Kiel 16% | Draw 24% | SV Darmstadt 98 60%, with SV Darmstadt 98 to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 80% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Holstein Kiel 80%, SV Darmstadt 98 80%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Holstein Kiel's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SV Darmstadt 98 arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Holstein Kiel (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.