Holstein Kiel 1-1 Hansa Rostock – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Holstein Kiel at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Holstein Kiel vs Hansa Rostock fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Holstein Kiel and Hansa Rostock meet at Holstein-Stadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 1 October 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Holstein Kiel have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Holstein Kiel, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Holstein Kiel have posted 5W 2D 3L at Holstein-Stadion — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Holstein-Stadion. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Holstein Kiel are significantly better at Holstein-Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Hansa Rostock (all games): 4W 0D 6L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hansa Rostock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hansa Rostock's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Holstein Kiel, 1.20 for Hansa Rostock — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Holstein Kiel, 2 for Hansa Rostock and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 11 Mar 2022, ended 2–3 with Hansa Rostock winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Holstein Kiel half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Hansa Rostock half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Holstein Kiel 60% versus Hansa Rostock 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Holstein Kiel 67% | Hansa Rostock 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Holstein Kiel 2.00 xG and Hansa Rostock 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Holstein Kiel attack 1.112 / defence 0.957 | Hansa Rostock attack 0.804 / defence 1.127. League average goals — home 1.597 / away 1.332. Data: 43 Holstein Kiel games / 43 Hansa Rostock games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Holstein Kiel 60% | Draw 22% | Hansa Rostock 18%. Fair-value odds: Holstein Kiel 1.67 | Draw 4.55 | Hansa Rostock 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Holstein Kiel (60%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Holstein Kiel at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.03 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Holstein Kiel 40% | Hansa Rostock 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Holstein Kiel vs Hansa Rostock | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Holstein-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Oct 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Holstein Kiel 60% | Draw 22% | Hansa Rostock 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 56% | xG Holstein Kiel 2.00 / Hansa Rostock 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Holstein Kiel attack 1.112 / def 0.957 | Hansa Rostock attack 0.804 / def 1.127 | league avg home 1.597 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: Holstein Kiel (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Holstein Kiel xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Hansa Rostock xG
56%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Holstein Kiel vs Hansa Rostock kick off?
Holstein Kiel vs Hansa Rostock kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 1 October 2022 at Holstein-Stadion.
What was the final score in Holstein Kiel vs Hansa Rostock?
Holstein Kiel 1 - 1 Hansa Rostock.
Where is Holstein Kiel vs Hansa Rostock being played?
The match is being played at Holstein-Stadion.
What competition is Holstein Kiel vs Hansa Rostock part of?
Holstein Kiel vs Hansa Rostock is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Holstein Kiel vs Hansa Rostock?
Our statistical model gives Holstein Kiel a 60% chance of winning, Hansa Rostock a 18% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Holstein Kiel the favourite.
Will both teams score in Holstein Kiel vs Hansa Rostock?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Holstein Kiel and Hansa Rostock will score (BTTS).
Will Holstein Kiel vs Hansa Rostock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Holstein Kiel and Hansa Rostock?
Record (2 meetings): Holstein Kiel 0W | Draws 0 | Hansa Rostock 2W.
What form are Holstein Kiel and Hansa Rostock in?
Holstein Kiel (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Hansa Rostock (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Holstein Kiel's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Hansa Rostock's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.00. Flip it around — Hansa Rostock's attack (0.80x) against Holstein Kiel's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (10.0%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Holstein Kiel Win
60%
1.68
22%
4.56
18%
5.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
10.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Holstein Kiel xG
Total xG
3.03
1.02
Hansa Rostock xG
1.68
60%
Home win
4.56
22%
Draw
5.43
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
14%
7.40
Win to Nil
21%
4.67
2%
40.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 10.0 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Holstein Kiel vs Hansa Rostock?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Holstein Kiel and Hansa Rostock expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Holstein Kiel and 1.02 for Hansa Rostock, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Holstein Kiel vs Hansa Rostock?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Holstein Kiel's recent record stands at 15W 12D 16L from 43 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Holstein Kiel is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hansa Rostock, meanwhile, have gone 14W 11D 18L across 43 games — 1.23 PPG, with W-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Hansa Rostock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Holstein Kiel against 1.23 for Hansa Rostock. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Holstein Kiel have managed 10W 4D 7L from 21 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hansa Rostock's away record stands at 7W 6D 8L across 21 trips, a 1.29 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Holstein Kiel are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Hansa Rostock are on 1.16 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Holstein Kiel have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Holstein Kiel
Blended
Hansa Rostock
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Holstein Kiel and Hansa Rostock in coming into this match?
Holstein Kiel have gone 15W 12D 16L in their last 43 games (1.33 PPG), while Hansa Rostock have gone 14W 11D 18L in their last 43 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Holstein Kiel at home or Hansa Rostock away?
Holstein Kiel's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Holstein Kiel at home: 1.62 PPG; Hansa Rostock away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Holstein Kiel have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Holstein Kiel have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Hansa Rostock — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Holstein Kiel
1
Draws
2
Hansa Rostock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Holstein Kiel and Hansa Rostock?
From 6 meetings on record, Holstein Kiel have won 3, Hansa Rostock have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Holstein Kiel and Hansa Rostock last play each other?
They last met on 30 March 2024, when Holstein Kiel 2-0 Hansa Rostock.
Who has won more matches between Holstein Kiel and Hansa Rostock?
Holstein Kiel have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Holstein Kiel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Hansa Rostock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Holstein Kiel 38%, Hansa Rostock 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Holstein Kiel) and 57% (Hansa Rostock). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 19% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Holstein Kiel keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Hansa Rostock in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Holstein Kiel home games / Hansa Rostock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Holstein Kiel play Hansa Rostock?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Holstein Kiel's recent matches and 43% of Hansa Rostock's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Holstein Kiel vs Hansa Rostock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Holstein Kiel's matches and 57% of Hansa Rostock's.
Do Holstein Kiel and Hansa Rostock tend to score early?
Holstein Kiel have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Hansa Rostock in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Holstein Kiel and Hansa Rostock share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Holstein-Stadion, Regular Season - 10, as Holstein Kiel and Hansa Rostock drew 1-1 in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Holstein Kiel 2.00 xG and Hansa Rostock 1.02 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Holstein Kiel fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Holstein Kiel attack 1.11 / defence 0.96 against Hansa Rostock attack 0.80 / defence 1.13, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Holstein Kiel 60% | Draw 22% | Hansa Rostock 18%, with Holstein Kiel to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Holstein Kiel 67%, Hansa Rostock 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Holstein Kiel's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Hansa Rostock's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Holstein Kiel 1.33 PPG, Hansa Rostock 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.