Holstein Kiel 1-0 Fortuna Düsseldorf – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Holstein Kiel at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Holstein Kiel vs Fortuna Düsseldorf encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Holstein Kiel host Fortuna Düsseldorf at Holstein-Stadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 6 February 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Holstein Kiel stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Holstein Kiel, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Holstein Kiel's home record at Holstein-Stadion: 4W 2D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Fortuna Düsseldorf have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Düsseldorf, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fortuna Düsseldorf away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Holstein Kiel have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Holstein Kiel, 0 for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Holstein Kiel in-play and half-time data (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games).
Fortuna Düsseldorf in-play and half-time data (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Holstein Kiel 65% and Fortuna Düsseldorf 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Holstein Kiel 75% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Holstein Kiel 1.45 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Holstein Kiel attack 0.996 / defence 1.124 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.752 / defence 1.238. League average goals — home 1.175 / away 1.419. Fortuna Düsseldorf bring a strong defensive rating of 1.238 — this is suppressing Holstein Kiel's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Holstein Kiel games / 20 Fortuna Düsseldorf games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Holstein Kiel 40% | Draw 31% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 29%. Fair-value odds: Holstein Kiel 2.50 | Draw 3.23 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Holstein Kiel at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Holstein Kiel offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Holstein Kiel 40% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Holstein Kiel vs Fortuna Düsseldorf | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Holstein-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Feb 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Holstein Kiel 40% | Draw 31% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 56% | xG Holstein Kiel 1.45 / Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Holstein Kiel attack 0.996 / def 1.124 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.752 / def 1.238 | league avg home 1.175 / away 1.419 • Poisson stance: Holstein Kiel (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Holstein Kiel xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Holstein Kiel vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kick off?
Holstein Kiel vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 6 February 2022 at Holstein-Stadion.
What was the final score in Holstein Kiel vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Holstein Kiel 1 - 0 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Where is Holstein Kiel vs Fortuna Düsseldorf being played?
The match is being played at Holstein-Stadion.
What competition is Holstein Kiel vs Fortuna Düsseldorf part of?
Holstein Kiel vs Fortuna Düsseldorf is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Holstein Kiel vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our statistical model gives Holstein Kiel a 40% chance of winning, Fortuna Düsseldorf a 29% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Holstein Kiel the favourite.
Will both teams score in Holstein Kiel vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Holstein Kiel and Fortuna Düsseldorf will score (BTTS).
Will Holstein Kiel vs Fortuna Düsseldorf have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Holstein Kiel and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Record (1 meetings): Holstein Kiel 0W | Draws 1 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 0W.
What form are Holstein Kiel and Fortuna Düsseldorf in?
Holstein Kiel (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Holstein Kiel's attack at 1.00x the league average against Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack versus Holstein Kiel's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Holstein Kiel Win
40%
2.49
31%
3.22
29%
3.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Holstein Kiel xG
Total xG
2.65
1.20
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
3.48
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
23%
4.26
Win to Nil
12%
8.26
7%
14.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 8.5 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.3 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.9 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Holstein Kiel vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Holstein Kiel and Fortuna Düsseldorf expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Holstein Kiel and 1.20 for Fortuna Düsseldorf, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Holstein Kiel vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 20 outings, Holstein Kiel have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 6W 7D 7L record — L-D-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Holstein Kiel is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's form line: 5W 5D 10L from 20 games, 1.00 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-L. The sample for Fortuna Düsseldorf is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Holstein Kiel on 1.25 PPG, Fortuna Düsseldorf on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Holstein Kiel have posted 1.40 PPG from 10 outings (4W 2D 4L).
On the road, Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Holstein Kiel are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Düsseldorf are on 1.15 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Holstein Kiel have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Fortuna Düsseldorf in 60%.
Last 20 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Holstein Kiel
Blended
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Holstein Kiel and Fortuna Düsseldorf in coming into this match?
Holstein Kiel have gone 6W 7D 7L in their last 20 games (1.25 PPG), while Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 5W 5D 10L in their last 20 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Holstein Kiel at home or Fortuna Düsseldorf away?
Holstein Kiel's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Holstein Kiel at home: 1.40 PPG; Fortuna Düsseldorf away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Holstein Kiel go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 May 2023, when Fortuna Düsseldorf won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Holstein Kiel's record when hosting Fortuna Düsseldorf specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Holstein Kiel
2
Draws
2
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Holstein Kiel and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
From 8 meetings on record, Holstein Kiel have won 4, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Holstein Kiel and Fortuna Düsseldorf last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-2 Holstein Kiel.
Who has won more matches between Holstein Kiel and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Holstein Kiel have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Holstein Kiel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Holstein Kiel 40%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Holstein Kiel and 50% for Fortuna Düsseldorf. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 10% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Holstein Kiel have failed to score in 40% of games; Fortuna Düsseldorf in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Holstein Kiel home games / Fortuna Düsseldorf away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Holstein Kiel play Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Holstein Kiel's recent matches and 50% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Holstein Kiel vs Fortuna Düsseldorf usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Holstein Kiel's matches and 50% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's.
Do Holstein Kiel and Fortuna Düsseldorf tend to score early?
Holstein Kiel have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Fortuna Düsseldorf in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Holstein Kiel edge out Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Holstein Kiel beat Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-0 at Holstein-Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Holstein Kiel 1.45 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.20 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Fortuna Düsseldorf landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Holstein Kiel attack 1.00 / defence 1.12 against Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.75 / defence 1.24, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Holstein Kiel 40% | Draw 31% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 29%, with Holstein Kiel to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Holstein Kiel 75%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Holstein Kiel's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Holstein Kiel 1.25 PPG, Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Holstein Kiel win broke the near-deadlock. Holstein Kiel (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.