Hansa Rostock 2-1 Fortuna Düsseldorf – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fortuna Düsseldorf at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hansa Rostock vs Fortuna Düsseldorf fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 12 as Hansa Rostock welcome Fortuna Düsseldorf to Ostseestadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 31 October 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hansa Rostock stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Hansa Rostock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Ostseestadion, Hansa Rostock have gone 1W 1D 3L this season (5 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Fortuna Düsseldorf — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Düsseldorf, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's away record: 3W 1D 2L from 6 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (1.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hansa Rostock 1.10 PPG, Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Hansa Rostock trading profile (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Fortuna Düsseldorf trading profile (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hansa Rostock 46% versus Fortuna Düsseldorf 73%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hansa Rostock 54% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hansa Rostock 1.07 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hansa Rostock attack 0.821 / defence 1.344 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.803 / defence 1.141. League average goals — home 1.148 / away 1.304. Data: 11 Hansa Rostock games / 11 Fortuna Düsseldorf games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 25% | Draw 34% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 41%. Fair-value odds: Hansa Rostock 4.00 | Draw 2.94 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fortuna Düsseldorf at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fortuna Düsseldorf offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hansa Rostock 80% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hansa Rostock vs Fortuna Düsseldorf | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Ostseestadion • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Oct 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 25% | Draw 34% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 54% | xG Hansa Rostock 1.07 / Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Hansa Rostock attack 0.821 / def 1.344 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.803 / def 1.141 | league avg home 1.148 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Düsseldorf (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Hansa Rostock xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hansa Rostock vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kick off?
Hansa Rostock vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 31 October 2021 at Ostseestadion.
What was the final score in Hansa Rostock vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Hansa Rostock 2 - 1 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Where is Hansa Rostock vs Fortuna Düsseldorf being played?
The match is being played at Ostseestadion.
What competition is Hansa Rostock vs Fortuna Düsseldorf part of?
Hansa Rostock vs Fortuna Düsseldorf is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hansa Rostock vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our statistical model gives Hansa Rostock a 25% chance of winning, Fortuna Düsseldorf a 41% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Düsseldorf the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hansa Rostock vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Hansa Rostock and Fortuna Düsseldorf will score (BTTS).
Will Hansa Rostock vs Fortuna Düsseldorf have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hansa Rostock and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hansa Rostock and Fortuna Düsseldorf in?
Hansa Rostock (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Hansa Rostock's attack at 0.82x the league average against Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack versus Hansa Rostock's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.1%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Düsseldorf Win
25%
4.01
34%
2.92
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Hansa Rostock xG
Total xG
2.48
1.41
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
4.01
25%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
24%
4.09
34%
2.93
Win to Nil
6%
16.39
14%
7.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 11.8 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.6 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.8 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hansa Rostock vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Hansa Rostock and Fortuna Düsseldorf expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Hansa Rostock and 1.41 for Fortuna Düsseldorf, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Hansa Rostock vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hansa Rostock's recent record stands at 3W 2D 6L from 11 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Hansa Rostock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fortuna Düsseldorf, meanwhile, have gone 4W 3D 4L across 11 games — 1.36 PPG, with D-W-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Fortuna Düsseldorf is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hansa Rostock on 1.00 PPG, Fortuna Düsseldorf on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Hansa Rostock have managed 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — 0.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's away record stands at 2W 1D 2L across 5 trips, a 1.40 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fortuna Düsseldorf come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hansa Rostock are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Düsseldorf are on 1.55 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fortuna Düsseldorf in 73%.
Last 11 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hansa Rostock
Blended
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hansa Rostock and Fortuna Düsseldorf in coming into this match?
Hansa Rostock have gone 3W 2D 6L in their last 11 games (1.00 PPG), while Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 4W 3D 4L in their last 11 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hansa Rostock at home or Fortuna Düsseldorf away?
Fortuna Düsseldorf's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hansa Rostock at home: 0.80 PPG; Fortuna Düsseldorf away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hansa Rostock and Fortuna Düsseldorf runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Fortuna Düsseldorf have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Apr 2022, when Fortuna Düsseldorf won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hansa Rostock's record when hosting Fortuna Düsseldorf specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Hansa Rostock
0
Draws
5
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hansa Rostock and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
From 6 meetings on record, Hansa Rostock have won 1, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hansa Rostock and Fortuna Düsseldorf last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2024, when Fortuna Düsseldorf 2-0 Hansa Rostock.
Who has won more matches between Hansa Rostock and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hansa Rostock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Hansa Rostock at 80%, Fortuna Düsseldorf at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Hansa Rostock) and 40% (Fortuna Düsseldorf).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hansa Rostock home games / Fortuna Düsseldorf away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hansa Rostock play Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Hansa Rostock's games and 60% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hansa Rostock vs Fortuna Düsseldorf usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Hansa Rostock's recent games and 40% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hansa Rostock and Fortuna Düsseldorf tend to score early?
Hansa Rostock have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Fortuna Düsseldorf in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hansa Rostock defy the odds to beat Fortuna Düsseldorf 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hansa Rostock beat Fortuna Düsseldorf 2-1 at Ostseestadion, Regular Season - 12, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hansa Rostock 1.07 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.41 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Hansa Rostock beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hansa Rostock attack 0.82 / defence 1.34 against Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.80 / defence 1.14, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hansa Rostock 25% | Draw 34% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 41%, with Fortuna Düsseldorf to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a Hansa Rostock win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hansa Rostock 54%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hansa Rostock's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hansa Rostock 1.00 PPG, Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hansa Rostock win broke the near-deadlock. Hansa Rostock (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.