Hansa Rostock 0-2 1. FC Kaiserslautern – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Kaiserslautern at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Ostseestadion plays host to Hansa Rostock versus 1. FC Kaiserslautern in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Friday 21 October 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Hansa Rostock's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Hansa Rostock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hansa Rostock at Ostseestadion this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
1. FC Kaiserslautern (all games): 2W 6D 2L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D D D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Kaiserslautern, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, 1. FC Kaiserslautern have posted 2W 4D 0L from 6 away outings — 1.67 PPG. Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Hansa Rostock, 1.20 for 1. FC Kaiserslautern — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Hansa Rostock half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 43% of games.
1. FC Kaiserslautern half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 36% of cases; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hansa Rostock 43% versus 1. FC Kaiserslautern 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hansa Rostock 50% | 1. FC Kaiserslautern 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hansa Rostock 1.22 xG and 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hansa Rostock attack 0.826 / defence 1.036 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern attack 1.012 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 1.537 / away 1.295. Data: 46 Hansa Rostock games / 12 1. FC Kaiserslautern games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 33% | Draw 27% | 1. FC Kaiserslautern 40%. Fair-value odds: Hansa Rostock 3.03 | Draw 3.70 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates 1. FC Kaiserslautern as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on 1. FC Kaiserslautern if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Hansa Rostock 40% | 1. FC Kaiserslautern 67%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Ostseestadion • Kick-off: Friday 21 Oct 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 33% | Draw 27% | 1. FC Kaiserslautern 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Hansa Rostock 1.22 / 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Hansa Rostock attack 0.826 / def 1.036 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern attack 1.012 / def 0.962 | league avg home 1.537 / away 1.295 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Kaiserslautern (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Hansa Rostock xG
Expected Goals
1.36
1. FC Kaiserslautern xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern kick off?
Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 21 October 2022 at Ostseestadion.
What was the final score in Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern?
Hansa Rostock 0 - 2 1. FC Kaiserslautern.
Where is Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern being played?
The match is being played at Ostseestadion.
What competition is Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern part of?
Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern?
Our statistical model gives Hansa Rostock a 33% chance of winning, 1. FC Kaiserslautern a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Kaiserslautern the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Hansa Rostock and 1. FC Kaiserslautern will score (BTTS).
Will Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hansa Rostock and 1. FC Kaiserslautern?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hansa Rostock and 1. FC Kaiserslautern in?
Hansa Rostock (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-L-D. 1. FC Kaiserslautern (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Hansa Rostock's attack rating (0.83) and 1. FC Kaiserslautern's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — 1. FC Kaiserslautern's attack (1.01x) against Hansa Rostock's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 46/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Kaiserslautern Win
33%
3.03
27%
3.64
40%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Hansa Rostock xG
Total xG
2.58
1.36
1. FC Kaiserslautern xG
3.03
33%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.53
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
26%
3.89
29%
3.39
Win to Nil
8%
11.78
12%
8.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 10.3 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.6 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.7 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Hansa Rostock and 1. FC Kaiserslautern expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Hansa Rostock and 1.36 for 1. FC Kaiserslautern, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 14 outings, Hansa Rostock have picked up 1.07 PPG on a 4W 3D 7L record — L-W-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Hansa Rostock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
1. FC Kaiserslautern's form line: 4W 8D 2L from 14 games, 1.43 PPG, last five D-D-D-D-L. The sample for 1. FC Kaiserslautern is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.07 PPG for Hansa Rostock against 1.43 for 1. FC Kaiserslautern. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Hansa Rostock have posted 1.50 PPG from 6 outings (3W 0D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.07 PPG overall — Hansa Rostock are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, 1. FC Kaiserslautern have gone 2W 4D 0L from 6 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hansa Rostock are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Kaiserslautern are on 1.57 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Kaiserslautern in 64%.
Last 14 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hansa Rostock
Blended
1. FC Kaiserslautern
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hansa Rostock and 1. FC Kaiserslautern in coming into this match?
Hansa Rostock have gone 4W 3D 7L in their last 14 games (1.07 PPG), while 1. FC Kaiserslautern have gone 4W 8D 2L in their last 14 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hansa Rostock at home or 1. FC Kaiserslautern away?
1. FC Kaiserslautern's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hansa Rostock at home: 1.50 PPG; 1. FC Kaiserslautern away: 1.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
1. FC Kaiserslautern go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: 1. FC Kaiserslautern won 0-3 on 2 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hansa Rostock have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against 1. FC Kaiserslautern — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Hansa Rostock
0
Draws
3
1. FC Kaiserslautern
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hansa Rostock and 1. FC Kaiserslautern?
From 4 meetings on record, Hansa Rostock have won 1, 1. FC Kaiserslautern have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hansa Rostock and 1. FC Kaiserslautern last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2024, when Hansa Rostock 0-3 1. FC Kaiserslautern.
Who has won more matches between Hansa Rostock and 1. FC Kaiserslautern?
1. FC Kaiserslautern have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hansa Rostock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
1. FC Kaiserslautern are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hansa Rostock 33%, 1. FC Kaiserslautern 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Hansa Rostock) and 50% (1. FC Kaiserslautern).
On the defensive side: 1. FC Kaiserslautern in 33%; Hansa Rostock have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hansa Rostock home games / 1. FC Kaiserslautern away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hansa Rostock play 1. FC Kaiserslautern?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Hansa Rostock's recent matches and 67% of 1. FC Kaiserslautern's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Hansa Rostock's recent games and 50% of 1. FC Kaiserslautern's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hansa Rostock and 1. FC Kaiserslautern tend to score early?
Hansa Rostock have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, 1. FC Kaiserslautern in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1. FC Kaiserslautern cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Hansa Rostock.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Kaiserslautern beat Hansa Rostock 0-2 at Ostseestadion, Regular Season - 13, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hansa Rostock 1.22 xG and 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.36 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Hansa Rostock fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hansa Rostock attack 0.83 / defence 1.04 against 1. FC Kaiserslautern attack 1.01 / defence 0.96, drawn from 46/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hansa Rostock 33% | Draw 27% | 1. FC Kaiserslautern 40%, with 1. FC Kaiserslautern to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hansa Rostock 50%, 1. FC Kaiserslautern 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hansa Rostock's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
1. FC Kaiserslautern's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hansa Rostock 1.07 PPG, 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Kaiserslautern win broke the near-deadlock. Hansa Rostock (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. 1. FC Kaiserslautern (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.