Hannover 96 2-1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hannover 96 at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hannover 96 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hannover 96 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth meet at Heinz von Heiden-Arena in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 28 August 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hannover 96 have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Hannover 96 have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hannover 96 at Heinz von Heiden-Arena this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Heinz von Heiden-Arena.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all games): 0W 5D 5L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: D L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. SpVgg Greuther Fürth have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 0W 5D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Hannover 96's favour (1.40 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading Data
Hannover 96 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
SpVgg Greuther Fürth goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hannover 96 46% versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hannover 96 56% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hannover 96 1.67 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hannover 96 attack 0.929 / defence 0.898 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.830 / defence 1.153. League average goals — home 1.558 / away 1.420. Data: 39 Hannover 96 games / 5 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hannover 96 52% | Draw 24% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 24%. Fair-value odds: Hannover 96 1.92 | Draw 4.17 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 4.17. Hannover 96 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hannover 96 at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hannover 96 if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hannover 96 40% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hannover 96 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Heinz von Heiden-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Aug 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hannover 96 52% | Draw 24% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG Hannover 96 1.67 / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Hannover 96 attack 0.929 / def 0.898 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.830 / def 1.153 | league avg home 1.558 / away 1.420 • Poisson stance: Hannover 96 (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Hannover 96 xG
Expected Goals
1.06
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hannover 96 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kick off?
Hannover 96 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 28 August 2022 at Heinz von Heiden-Arena.
What was the final score in Hannover 96 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Hannover 96 2 - 1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Where is Hannover 96 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth being played?
The match is being played at Heinz von Heiden-Arena.
What competition is Hannover 96 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth part of?
Hannover 96 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hannover 96 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our statistical model gives Hannover 96 a 52% chance of winning, SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Hannover 96 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hannover 96 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Hannover 96 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth will score (BTTS).
Will Hannover 96 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hannover 96 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hannover 96 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in?
Hannover 96 (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Hannover 96's attack at 0.93x the league average against SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.67 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack (0.83x) against Hannover 96's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 39/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hannover 96 Win
52%
1.94
24%
4.11
24%
4.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Hannover 96 xG
Total xG
2.73
1.06
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
1.94
52%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
4.16
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
19%
5.31
Win to Nil
18%
5.58
5%
22.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 11.6 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.6 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hannover 96 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Hannover 96 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Hannover 96 and 1.06 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Hannover 96 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hannover 96's recent record stands at 13W 10D 16L from 39 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Hannover 96, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth, meanwhile, have gone 3W 12D 24L across 39 games — 0.54 PPG, with D-L-D-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hannover 96 by 0.72 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SpVgg Greuther Fürth heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Hannover 96 have managed 7W 7D 5L from 19 games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's away record stands at 0W 5D 14L across 19 trips, a 0.26 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hannover 96 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Hannover 96 are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; SpVgg Greuther Fürth are on 0.87 scored and 2.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 67%.
Defensively: Hannover 96 have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hannover 96
Early Season
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hannover 96 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in coming into this match?
Hannover 96 have gone 13W 10D 16L in their last 39 games (1.26 PPG), while SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 3W 12D 24L in their last 39 (0.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hannover 96 at home or SpVgg Greuther Fürth away?
Hannover 96's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hannover 96 at home: 1.47 PPG; SpVgg Greuther Fürth away: 0.26 PPG.
Have Hannover 96 or SpVgg Greuther Fürth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hannover 96 have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hannover 96 have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against SpVgg Greuther Fürth — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Hannover 96
3
Draws
2
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hannover 96 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
From 8 meetings on record, Hannover 96 have won 3, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hannover 96 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Hannover 96 1-2 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Who has won more matches between Hannover 96 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Hannover 96 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hannover 96 see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 26% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hannover 96 37%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Hannover 96) and 79% (SpVgg Greuther Fürth). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hannover 96 keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Hannover 96 have failed to score in 32% of games; SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hannover 96 home games / SpVgg Greuther Fürth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hannover 96 play SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Hannover 96's recent matches and 68% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hannover 96 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 37% of Hannover 96's matches and 79% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's.
Do Hannover 96 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth tend to score early?
Hannover 96 have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hannover 96 edge out SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hannover 96 beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-1 at Heinz von Heiden-Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hannover 96 1.67 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.06 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hannover 96 attack 0.93 / defence 0.90 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.83 / defence 1.15, drawn from 39/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hannover 96 52% | Draw 24% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 24%, with Hannover 96 to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hannover 96 56%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hannover 96's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hannover 96 arrived the stronger side — 1.26 PPG against 0.54. That form edge translated into the three points. Hannover 96 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.