Hannover 96 1-1 SSV Jahn Regensburg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Hannover 96 take on SSV Jahn Regensburg.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees SSV Jahn Regensburg travel to HDI-Arena to take on Hannover 96. The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 April 2022, 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Hannover 96 — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Hannover 96, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hannover 96's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at HDI-Arena this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, SSV Jahn Regensburg stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for SSV Jahn Regensburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Hannover 96 at 1.10 PPG versus SSV Jahn Regensburg's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Hannover 96 have won 0, SSV Jahn Regensburg 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2021, ended 1–3 with SSV Jahn Regensburg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Hannover 96 in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
SSV Jahn Regensburg in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hannover 96 41% versus SSV Jahn Regensburg 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hannover 96 52% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hannover 96 1.00 xG and SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hannover 96 attack 0.752 / defence 1.107 | SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.667 / defence 1.185. League average goals — home 1.123 / away 1.438. Hannover 96's attack strength of 0.752 is below the league average — the 1.00 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 27 Hannover 96 games / 27 SSV Jahn Regensburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hannover 96 31% | Draw 35% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 34%. Fair-value odds: Hannover 96 3.23 | Draw 2.86 | SSV Jahn Regensburg 2.94. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.06 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Hannover 96 40% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hannover 96 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: HDI-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Apr 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hannover 96 31% | Draw 35% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 44% | xG Hannover 96 1.00 / SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Hannover 96 attack 0.752 / def 1.107 | SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.667 / def 1.185 | league avg home 1.123 / away 1.438 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Hannover 96 xG
Expected Goals
1.06
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hannover 96 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg kick off?
Hannover 96 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 2 April 2022 at HDI-Arena.
What was the final score in Hannover 96 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Hannover 96 1 - 1 SSV Jahn Regensburg.
Where is Hannover 96 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg being played?
The match is being played at HDI-Arena.
What competition is Hannover 96 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg part of?
Hannover 96 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hannover 96 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our statistical model gives Hannover 96 a 31% chance of winning, SSV Jahn Regensburg a 34% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Hannover 96 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Hannover 96 and SSV Jahn Regensburg will score (BTTS).
Will Hannover 96 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hannover 96 and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Record (1 meetings): Hannover 96 0W | Draws 0 | SSV Jahn Regensburg 1W.
What form are Hannover 96 and SSV Jahn Regensburg in?
Hannover 96 (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. SSV Jahn Regensburg (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Hannover 96's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against SSV Jahn Regensburg's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.00. The same calculation in reverse, SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack versus Hannover 96's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 0-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.24
35%
2.84
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Hannover 96 xG
Total xG
2.06
1.06
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
3.24
31%
Home win
2.84
35%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
11%
9.37
12%
8.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hannover 96 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Hannover 96 and SSV Jahn Regensburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Hannover 96 and 1.06 for SSV Jahn Regensburg, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Hannover 96 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 27 outings, Hannover 96 have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 8W 7D 12L record — W-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Hannover 96 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's form line: 10W 6D 11L from 27 games, 1.33 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-W. The sample for SSV Jahn Regensburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hannover 96 on 1.15 PPG, SSV Jahn Regensburg on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Hannover 96 have posted 1.23 PPG from 13 outings (4W 4D 5L).
On the road, SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 4W 3D 6L from 13 away games — 1.15 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Hannover 96 are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; SSV Jahn Regensburg are on 1.63 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Defensively: Hannover 96 have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hannover 96
Blended
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hannover 96 and SSV Jahn Regensburg in coming into this match?
Hannover 96 have gone 8W 7D 12L in their last 27 games (1.15 PPG), while SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 10W 6D 11L in their last 27 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hannover 96 at home or SSV Jahn Regensburg away?
Hannover 96's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hannover 96 at home: 1.23 PPG; SSV Jahn Regensburg away: 1.15 PPG.
Have Hannover 96 or SSV Jahn Regensburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hannover 96 have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, SSV Jahn Regensburg in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Hannover 96 have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Hannover 96's record when hosting SSV Jahn Regensburg specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Hannover 96
2
Draws
1
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hannover 96 and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
From 6 meetings on record, Hannover 96 have won 3, SSV Jahn Regensburg have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hannover 96 and SSV Jahn Regensburg last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2025, when SSV Jahn Regensburg 0-1 Hannover 96.
Who has won more matches between Hannover 96 and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Hannover 96 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hannover 96 see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
SSV Jahn Regensburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Hannover 96 31% BTTS, SSV Jahn Regensburg 38%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Hannover 96) and 46% (SSV Jahn Regensburg).
On the defensive side: Hannover 96 keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; SSV Jahn Regensburg in 31%; Hannover 96 have failed to score in 38% of games; SSV Jahn Regensburg in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hannover 96 home games / SSV Jahn Regensburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hannover 96 play SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Hannover 96's recent matches and 38% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hannover 96 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Hannover 96's recent games and 46% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hannover 96 and SSV Jahn Regensburg tend to score early?
Hannover 96 have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, SSV Jahn Regensburg in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hannover 96 and SSV Jahn Regensburg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at HDI-Arena, Regular Season - 28, as Hannover 96 and SSV Jahn Regensburg drew 1-1 in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hannover 96 1.00 xG and SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.06 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hannover 96 attack 0.75 / defence 1.11 against SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.67 / defence 1.19, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hannover 96 31% | Draw 35% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hannover 96 52%, SSV Jahn Regensburg 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hannover 96's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hannover 96 1.15 PPG, SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.