Hannover 96 1-1 Erzgebirge AUE – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Hannover 96 take on Erzgebirge AUE.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
HDI-Arena plays host to Hannover 96 versus Erzgebirge AUE in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Saturday 30 October 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hannover 96 have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Hannover 96, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hannover 96 have posted 2W 0D 3L at HDI-Arena — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Erzgebirge AUE (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Erzgebirge AUE, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, Erzgebirge AUE have posted 0W 2D 3L from 5 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Hannover 96, 0.60 for Erzgebirge AUE — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Hannover 96 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Erzgebirge AUE goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hannover 96 27% versus Erzgebirge AUE 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hannover 96 46% | Erzgebirge AUE 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hannover 96 1.04 xG and Erzgebirge AUE 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hannover 96 attack 0.667 / defence 1.097 | Erzgebirge AUE attack 0.736 / defence 1.329. League average goals — home 1.179 / away 1.321. Hannover 96's attack strength of 0.667 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Erzgebirge AUE bring a strong defensive rating of 1.329 — this is suppressing Hannover 96's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Hannover 96 games / 11 Erzgebirge AUE games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hannover 96 31% | Draw 37% | Erzgebirge AUE 32%. Fair-value odds: Hannover 96 3.23 | Draw 2.70 | Erzgebirge AUE 3.12. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.11 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Hannover 96 20% | Erzgebirge AUE 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hannover 96 vs Erzgebirge AUE | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: HDI-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Oct 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hannover 96 31% | Draw 37% | Erzgebirge AUE 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 46% | xG Hannover 96 1.04 / Erzgebirge AUE 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Hannover 96 attack 0.667 / def 1.097 | Erzgebirge AUE attack 0.736 / def 1.329 | league avg home 1.179 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Hannover 96 xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Erzgebirge AUE xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hannover 96 vs Erzgebirge AUE kick off?
Hannover 96 vs Erzgebirge AUE kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 30 October 2021 at HDI-Arena.
What was the final score in Hannover 96 vs Erzgebirge AUE?
Hannover 96 1 - 1 Erzgebirge AUE.
Where is Hannover 96 vs Erzgebirge AUE being played?
The match is being played at HDI-Arena.
What competition is Hannover 96 vs Erzgebirge AUE part of?
Hannover 96 vs Erzgebirge AUE is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hannover 96 vs Erzgebirge AUE?
Our statistical model gives Hannover 96 a 31% chance of winning, Erzgebirge AUE a 32% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Hannover 96 vs Erzgebirge AUE?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Hannover 96 and Erzgebirge AUE will score (BTTS).
Will Hannover 96 vs Erzgebirge AUE have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hannover 96 and Erzgebirge AUE?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hannover 96 and Erzgebirge AUE in?
Hannover 96 (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Erzgebirge AUE (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Hannover 96's attack rating (0.67) and Erzgebirge AUE's defence rating (1.33), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Erzgebirge AUE's attack (0.74x) against Hannover 96's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 0-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.24
37%
2.69
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Hannover 96 xG
Total xG
2.11
1.07
Erzgebirge AUE xG
3.24
31%
Home win
2.69
37%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
35%
2.84
Win to Nil
11%
9.42
11%
8.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 12.9 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hannover 96 vs Erzgebirge AUE?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Hannover 96 and Erzgebirge AUE expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Hannover 96 and 1.07 for Erzgebirge AUE, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Hannover 96 vs Erzgebirge AUE?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hannover 96's recent record stands at 3W 2D 6L from 11 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Hannover 96 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Erzgebirge AUE, meanwhile, have gone 1W 4D 6L across 11 games — 0.64 PPG, with L-L-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Erzgebirge AUE is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Hannover 96 against 0.64 for Erzgebirge AUE. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Hannover 96 have managed 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Erzgebirge AUE's away record stands at 0W 2D 3L across 5 trips, a 0.40 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hannover 96 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Hannover 96 are averaging 0.73 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Erzgebirge AUE are on 0.73 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hannover 96 have seen both teams score in 27% of their recent games.
Defensively: Hannover 96 have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hannover 96
Blended
Erzgebirge AUE
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hannover 96 and Erzgebirge AUE in coming into this match?
Hannover 96 have gone 3W 2D 6L in their last 11 games (1.00 PPG), while Erzgebirge AUE have gone 1W 4D 6L in their last 11 (0.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hannover 96 at home or Erzgebirge AUE away?
Hannover 96's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hannover 96 at home: 1.20 PPG; Erzgebirge AUE away: 0.40 PPG.
Have Hannover 96 or Erzgebirge AUE been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hannover 96 have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Erzgebirge AUE in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Hannover 96
1
Draws
0
Erzgebirge AUE
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hannover 96 and Erzgebirge AUE?
From 2 meetings on record, Hannover 96 have won 1, Erzgebirge AUE have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hannover 96 and Erzgebirge AUE last play each other?
They last met on 9 April 2022, when Erzgebirge AUE 1-3 Hannover 96.
Who has won more matches between Hannover 96 and Erzgebirge AUE?
Hannover 96 have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hannover 96 see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Erzgebirge AUE are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hannover 96 20%, Erzgebirge AUE 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Hannover 96) and 60% (Erzgebirge AUE).
On the defensive side: Hannover 96 keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Hannover 96 have failed to score in 40% of games; Erzgebirge AUE in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hannover 96 home games / Erzgebirge AUE away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hannover 96 play Erzgebirge AUE?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Hannover 96's recent matches and 60% of Erzgebirge AUE's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hannover 96 vs Erzgebirge AUE usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Hannover 96's recent games and 60% of Erzgebirge AUE's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hannover 96 and Erzgebirge AUE tend to score early?
Hannover 96 have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Erzgebirge AUE in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hannover 96 and Erzgebirge AUE share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hannover 96 and Erzgebirge AUE finished level at 1-1 at HDI-Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hannover 96 1.04 xG and Erzgebirge AUE 1.07 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hannover 96 attack 0.67 / defence 1.10 against Erzgebirge AUE attack 0.74 / defence 1.33, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hannover 96 31% | Draw 37% | Erzgebirge AUE 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hannover 96 46%, Erzgebirge AUE 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hannover 96's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Erzgebirge AUE's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hannover 96 1.00 PPG, Erzgebirge AUE 0.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Erzgebirge AUE (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.