Hamburger SV 2-3 Werder Bremen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hamburger SV at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hamburger SV vs Werder Bremen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 24 as Hamburger SV welcome Werder Bremen to Volksparkstadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 27 February 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Hamburger SV have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: D W W W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Hamburger SV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hamburger SV's form when playing at home: 6W 4D 0L across 10 games at Volksparkstadion this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Werder Bremen — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Werder Bremen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Werder Bremen away from home this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Hamburger SV at 2.10 PPG versus Werder Bremen's 2.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Hamburger SV, 0 for Werder Bremen and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2021, ended 2–0 with Hamburger SV winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Hamburger SV trading profile (23 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Werder Bremen trading profile (23 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 89% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 92% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hamburger SV 70% and Werder Bremen 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hamburger SV 48% | Werder Bremen 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hamburger SV 2.02 xG and Werder Bremen 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hamburger SV attack 1.253 / defence 0.855 | Werder Bremen attack 1.147 / defence 1.439. League average goals — home 1.118 / away 1.462. Hamburger SV carry an above-average attack strength of 1.253 — their λ of 2.02 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Werder Bremen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.439 — this is suppressing Hamburger SV's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Hamburger SV games / 23 Werder Bremen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hamburger SV 49% | Draw 27% | Werder Bremen 25%. Fair-value odds: Hamburger SV 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Werder Bremen 4.00. Hamburger SV hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.45. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.45 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.02 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hamburger SV are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hamburger SV offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.45 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hamburger SV 70% | Werder Bremen 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hamburger SV vs Werder Bremen | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Volksparkstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Feb 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hamburger SV 49% | Draw 27% | Werder Bremen 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 69% | xG Hamburger SV 2.02 / Werder Bremen 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Hamburger SV attack 1.253 / def 0.855 | Werder Bremen attack 1.147 / def 1.439 | league avg home 1.118 / away 1.462 • Poisson stance: Hamburger SV (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Hamburger SV xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Werder Bremen xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hamburger SV vs Werder Bremen kick off?
Hamburger SV vs Werder Bremen kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 27 February 2022 at Volksparkstadion.
What was the final score in Hamburger SV vs Werder Bremen?
Hamburger SV 2 - 3 Werder Bremen.
Where is Hamburger SV vs Werder Bremen being played?
The match is being played at Volksparkstadion.
What competition is Hamburger SV vs Werder Bremen part of?
Hamburger SV vs Werder Bremen is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hamburger SV vs Werder Bremen?
Our statistical model gives Hamburger SV a 49% chance of winning, Werder Bremen a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Hamburger SV the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hamburger SV vs Werder Bremen?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Hamburger SV and Werder Bremen will score (BTTS).
Will Hamburger SV vs Werder Bremen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and Werder Bremen?
Record (1 meetings): Hamburger SV 1W | Draws 0 | Werder Bremen 0W.
What form are Hamburger SV and Werder Bremen in?
Hamburger SV (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. Werder Bremen (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Hamburger SV's attack at 1.25x the league average against Werder Bremen's defence at 1.44x — combine the two and it projects 2.02 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Werder Bremen's attack versus Hamburger SV's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 2-2 (6.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hamburger SV Win
49%
2.06
27%
3.75
25%
4.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
1 – 2
6.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Hamburger SV xG
Total xG
3.45
1.43
Werder Bremen xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
4.04
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.46
31%
BTTS No
3.18
Clean Sheet
24%
4.19
13%
7.50
Win to Nil
12%
8.64
3%
30.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 9.2 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.3 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 6.2 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hamburger SV vs Werder Bremen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Hamburger SV and Werder Bremen expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Hamburger SV and 1.43 for Werder Bremen, a combined total of 3.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Hamburger SV vs Werder Bremen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hamburger SV's recent record stands at 10W 11D 2L from 23 games, a 1.78 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Hamburger SV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Werder Bremen, meanwhile, have gone 12W 6D 5L across 23 games — 1.83 PPG, with W-W-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Werder Bremen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hamburger SV on 1.78 PPG, Werder Bremen on 1.83. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Hamburger SV have managed 6W 6D 0L from 12 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Werder Bremen's away record stands at 7W 2D 3L across 12 trips, a 1.92 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Hamburger SV are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Werder Bremen are on 1.91 scored and 1.35 conceded. Werder Bremen's attacking output running into Hamburger SV's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Hamburger SV have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Werder Bremen in 61%.
Last 23 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hamburger SV
Blended
Werder Bremen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hamburger SV and Werder Bremen in coming into this match?
Hamburger SV have gone 10W 11D 2L in their last 23 games (1.78 PPG), while Werder Bremen have gone 12W 6D 5L in their last 23 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hamburger SV at home or Werder Bremen away?
Hamburger SV's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hamburger SV at home: 2.00 PPG; Werder Bremen away: 1.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — 2. Bundesliga, Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Hamburger SV's record when hosting Werder Bremen specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Hamburger SV
0
Draws
2
Werder Bremen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and Werder Bremen?
From 4 meetings on record, Hamburger SV have won 2, Werder Bremen have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hamburger SV and Werder Bremen last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Werder Bremen 3-1 Hamburger SV.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Hamburger SV at 75%, Werder Bremen at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Hamburger SV and 92% for Werder Bremen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hamburger SV home games / Werder Bremen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hamburger SV play Werder Bremen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Hamburger SV's games and 67% of Werder Bremen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hamburger SV vs Werder Bremen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Hamburger SV's matches and 92% of Werder Bremen's.
Do Hamburger SV and Werder Bremen tend to score early?
Hamburger SV have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Werder Bremen in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Werder Bremen defy the odds to beat Hamburger SV 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Werder Bremen beat Hamburger SV 2-3 at Volksparkstadion, Regular Season - 24, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hamburger SV 2.02 xG and Werder Bremen 1.43 xG, a combined 3.45. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Werder Bremen outscored their 1.43 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hamburger SV attack 1.25 / defence 0.85 against Werder Bremen attack 1.15 / defence 1.44, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hamburger SV 49% | Draw 27% | Werder Bremen 25%, with Hamburger SV to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Werder Bremen win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hamburger SV 48%, Werder Bremen 74%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hamburger SV's trading profile (23 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Werder Bremen's trading profile (23 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hamburger SV 1.78 PPG, Werder Bremen 1.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Werder Bremen win broke the near-deadlock. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.