Hamburger SV 1-2 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Hamburger SV at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hamburger SV vs SC Paderborn 07 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Volksparkstadion plays host to Hamburger SV versus SC Paderborn 07 in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Saturday 2 April 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Hamburger SV (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hamburger SV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hamburger SV's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Volksparkstadion this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
SC Paderborn 07's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D W D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Paderborn 07 away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Hamburger SV. A 0.60 PPG lead over SC Paderborn 07 (1.60 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Hamburger SV register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, SC Paderborn 07 in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Hamburger SV 1W, SC Paderborn 07 0W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2021, ended 2–1 with Hamburger SV winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Hamburger SV goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
SC Paderborn 07 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hamburger SV 73% and SC Paderborn 07 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hamburger SV 50% | SC Paderborn 07 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hamburger SV 1.70 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hamburger SV attack 1.216 / defence 1.016 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.967 / defence 1.245. League average goals — home 1.123 / away 1.438. SC Paderborn 07 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.245 — this is suppressing Hamburger SV's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Hamburger SV games / 27 SC Paderborn 07 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hamburger SV 42% | Draw 27% | SC Paderborn 07 30%. Fair-value odds: Hamburger SV 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | SC Paderborn 07 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.70 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Hamburger SV as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hamburger SV if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.11 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hamburger SV 70% | SC Paderborn 07 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hamburger SV vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Volksparkstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Apr 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hamburger SV 42% | Draw 27% | SC Paderborn 07 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 64% | xG Hamburger SV 1.70 / SC Paderborn 07 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Hamburger SV attack 1.216 / def 1.016 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.967 / def 1.245 | league avg home 1.123 / away 1.438 • Poisson stance: Hamburger SV (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Hamburger SV xG
Expected Goals
1.41
SC Paderborn 07 xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hamburger SV vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
Hamburger SV vs SC Paderborn 07 kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 2 April 2022 at Volksparkstadion.
What was the final score in Hamburger SV vs SC Paderborn 07?
Hamburger SV 1 - 2 SC Paderborn 07.
Where is Hamburger SV vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at Volksparkstadion.
What competition is Hamburger SV vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
Hamburger SV vs SC Paderborn 07 is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hamburger SV vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives Hamburger SV a 42% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Hamburger SV the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hamburger SV vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Hamburger SV and SC Paderborn 07 will score (BTTS).
Will Hamburger SV vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and SC Paderborn 07?
Record (1 meetings): Hamburger SV 1W | Draws 0 | SC Paderborn 07 0W.
What form are Hamburger SV and SC Paderborn 07 in?
Hamburger SV (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Hamburger SV's attack rating (1.22) and SC Paderborn 07's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.70 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SC Paderborn 07's attack (0.97x) against Hamburger SV's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 26/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hamburger SV Win
42%
2.35
27%
3.64
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Hamburger SV xG
Total xG
3.11
1.41
SC Paderborn 07 xG
2.35
42%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
24%
4.10
18%
5.48
Win to Nil
10%
9.66
5%
18.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.3 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 10.7 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.1 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.2 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hamburger SV vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Hamburger SV and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Hamburger SV and 1.41 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Hamburger SV vs SC Paderborn 07?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hamburger SV's recent record stands at 10W 12D 4L from 26 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Hamburger SV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Paderborn 07, meanwhile, have gone 9W 9D 8L across 26 games — 1.38 PPG, with L-D-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for SC Paderborn 07 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.62 PPG for Hamburger SV against 1.38 for SC Paderborn 07. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Hamburger SV have managed 6W 5D 1L from 12 games — 1.92 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SC Paderborn 07's away record stands at 7W 3D 2L across 12 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.38 PPG overall record — SC Paderborn 07 travel well.
Attack vs Defence
Hamburger SV are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; SC Paderborn 07 are on 1.77 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hamburger SV have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games; SC Paderborn 07 in 73%.
Last 26 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hamburger SV
Blended
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hamburger SV and SC Paderborn 07 in coming into this match?
Hamburger SV have gone 10W 12D 4L in their last 26 games (1.62 PPG), while SC Paderborn 07 have gone 9W 9D 8L in their last 26 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hamburger SV at home or SC Paderborn 07 away?
SC Paderborn 07's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hamburger SV at home: 1.92 PPG; SC Paderborn 07 away: 2.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hamburger SV have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against SC Paderborn 07 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Hamburger SV
2
Draws
4
SC Paderborn 07
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and SC Paderborn 07?
From 8 meetings on record, Hamburger SV have won 2, SC Paderborn 07 have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hamburger SV and SC Paderborn 07 last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2025, when SC Paderborn 07 2-0 Hamburger SV.
Who has won more matches between Hamburger SV and SC Paderborn 07?
SC Paderborn 07 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for Hamburger SV, 67% for SC Paderborn 07 — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Hamburger SV and 67% for SC Paderborn 07. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hamburger SV home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hamburger SV play SC Paderborn 07?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Hamburger SV's games and 67% of SC Paderborn 07's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hamburger SV vs SC Paderborn 07 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Hamburger SV's matches and 67% of SC Paderborn 07's.
Do Hamburger SV and SC Paderborn 07 tend to score early?
Hamburger SV have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, SC Paderborn 07 in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SC Paderborn 07 defy the odds to beat Hamburger SV 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Paderborn 07 beat Hamburger SV 1-2 at Volksparkstadion, Regular Season - 28, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hamburger SV 1.70 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.41 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hamburger SV attack 1.22 / defence 1.02 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.97 / defence 1.25, drawn from 26/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hamburger SV 42% | Draw 27% | SC Paderborn 07 30%, with Hamburger SV to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual SC Paderborn 07 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hamburger SV 50%, SC Paderborn 07 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 73%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hamburger SV's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hamburger SV 1.62 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Paderborn 07 win broke the near-deadlock. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.08 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.