Hamburger SV 4-1 SSV Jahn Regensburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SSV Jahn Regensburg at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hamburger SV vs SSV Jahn Regensburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hamburger SV and SSV Jahn Regensburg meet at Volksparkstadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 20 November 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hamburger SV have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 7D 0L. Last five: D D W D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Hamburger SV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Volksparkstadion, Hamburger SV have gone 1W 5D 0L this season (6 games, 1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
SSV Jahn Regensburg (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: D D W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for SSV Jahn Regensburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, SSV Jahn Regensburg have posted 3W 2D 1L from 6 away outings — 1.83 PPG. Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 6 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Hamburger SV half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
SSV Jahn Regensburg half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hamburger SV 85% and SSV Jahn Regensburg 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hamburger SV 46% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hamburger SV 1.01 xG and SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hamburger SV attack 0.978 / defence 1.144 | SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.959 / defence 0.905. League average goals — home 1.137 / away 1.362. Data: 13 Hamburger SV games / 13 SSV Jahn Regensburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hamburger SV 22% | Draw 33% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 45%. Fair-value odds: Hamburger SV 4.55 | Draw 3.03 | SSV Jahn Regensburg 2.22. SSV Jahn Regensburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SSV Jahn Regensburg at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SSV Jahn Regensburg if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Hamburger SV 100% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 33% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hamburger SV vs SSV Jahn Regensburg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Volksparkstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hamburger SV 22% | Draw 33% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 53% | xG Hamburger SV 1.01 / SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Hamburger SV attack 0.978 / def 1.144 | SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.959 / def 0.905 | league avg home 1.137 / away 1.362 • Poisson stance: SSV Jahn Regensburg (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Hamburger SV xG
Expected Goals
1.50
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hamburger SV vs SSV Jahn Regensburg kick off?
Hamburger SV vs SSV Jahn Regensburg kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at Volksparkstadion.
What was the final score in Hamburger SV vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Hamburger SV 4 - 1 SSV Jahn Regensburg.
Where is Hamburger SV vs SSV Jahn Regensburg being played?
The match is being played at Volksparkstadion.
What competition is Hamburger SV vs SSV Jahn Regensburg part of?
Hamburger SV vs SSV Jahn Regensburg is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hamburger SV vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our statistical model gives Hamburger SV a 22% chance of winning, SSV Jahn Regensburg a 45% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making SSV Jahn Regensburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hamburger SV vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Hamburger SV and SSV Jahn Regensburg will score (BTTS).
Will Hamburger SV vs SSV Jahn Regensburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hamburger SV and SSV Jahn Regensburg in?
Hamburger SV (all comps): 3W-7D-0L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-D-D. SSV Jahn Regensburg (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Hamburger SV's attack at 0.98x the league average against SSV Jahn Regensburg's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack (0.96x) against Hamburger SV's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.7%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SSV Jahn Regensburg Win
22%
4.60
33%
2.99
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Hamburger SV xG
Total xG
2.50
1.50
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
4.60
22%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
22%
4.46
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
5%
20.49
16%
6.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 12.3 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.3 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.2 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hamburger SV vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Hamburger SV and SSV Jahn Regensburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Hamburger SV and 1.50 for SSV Jahn Regensburg, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Hamburger SV vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 13 outings, Hamburger SV have picked up 1.54 PPG on a 4W 8D 1L record — D-D-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Hamburger SV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's form line: 7W 4D 2L from 13 games, 1.92 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-L. The sample for SSV Jahn Regensburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.54 PPG for Hamburger SV against 1.92 for SSV Jahn Regensburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Hamburger SV have posted 1.33 PPG from 6 outings (1W 5D 0L).
On the road, SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 3W 2D 1L from 6 away games — 1.83 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SSV Jahn Regensburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Hamburger SV are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; SSV Jahn Regensburg are on 2.23 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hamburger SV have seen both teams score in 85% of their recent games; SSV Jahn Regensburg in 62%.
Last 13 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hamburger SV
Blended
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hamburger SV and SSV Jahn Regensburg in coming into this match?
Hamburger SV have gone 4W 8D 1L in their last 13 games (1.54 PPG), while SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 7W 4D 2L in their last 13 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hamburger SV at home or SSV Jahn Regensburg away?
SSV Jahn Regensburg's away record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hamburger SV at home: 1.33 PPG; SSV Jahn Regensburg away: 1.83 PPG.
Have Hamburger SV or SSV Jahn Regensburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hamburger SV have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, SSV Jahn Regensburg in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hamburger SV won 5-0 on 15 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hamburger SV have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against SSV Jahn Regensburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Hamburger SV
1
Draws
0
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
From 6 meetings on record, Hamburger SV have won 5, SSV Jahn Regensburg have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hamburger SV and SSV Jahn Regensburg last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2025, when SSV Jahn Regensburg 1-1 Hamburger SV.
Who has won more matches between Hamburger SV and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Hamburger SV have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
SSV Jahn Regensburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Hamburger SV, 33% for SSV Jahn Regensburg — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Hamburger SV) and 33% (SSV Jahn Regensburg).
On the defensive side: SSV Jahn Regensburg in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hamburger SV home games / SSV Jahn Regensburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hamburger SV play SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Hamburger SV's games and 33% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hamburger SV vs SSV Jahn Regensburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Hamburger SV's recent games and 33% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hamburger SV and SSV Jahn Regensburg tend to score early?
Hamburger SV have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, SSV Jahn Regensburg in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hamburger SV run riot with a 4-1 hammering of SSV Jahn Regensburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hamburger SV beat SSV Jahn Regensburg 4-1 at Volksparkstadion, Regular Season - 14, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hamburger SV 1.01 xG and SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.50 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Hamburger SV beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hamburger SV attack 0.98 / defence 1.14 against SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.96 / defence 0.91, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hamburger SV 22% | Draw 33% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 45%, with SSV Jahn Regensburg to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Hamburger SV win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hamburger SV 46%, SSV Jahn Regensburg 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 73%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hamburger SV's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 85% of their matches — today it did.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hamburger SV 1.54 PPG, SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hamburger SV win broke the near-deadlock. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm. SSV Jahn Regensburg (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.