Hamburger SV 2-1 Hannover 96 – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Hamburger SV at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hamburger SV vs Hannover 96 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hamburger SV host Hannover 96 at Volksparkstadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 May 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hamburger SV stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Hamburger SV at Volksparkstadion this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Volksparkstadion. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Hamburger SV are significantly better at Volksparkstadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Hannover 96 have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Hannover 96's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hamburger SV 1.40 PPG, Hannover 96 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Hamburger SV have won 0, Hannover 96 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 5 Dec 2021, ended 0–1 with Hannover 96 winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Hamburger SV in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
Hannover 96 in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hamburger SV 66% versus Hannover 96 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hamburger SV 56% | Hannover 96 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hamburger SV 2.12 xG and Hannover 96 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hamburger SV attack 1.298 / defence 0.921 | Hannover 96 attack 0.783 / defence 1.407. League average goals — home 1.162 / away 1.449. Hamburger SV carry an above-average attack strength of 1.298 — their λ of 2.12 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Hannover 96 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.407 — this is suppressing Hamburger SV's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Hamburger SV games / 32 Hannover 96 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hamburger SV 60% | Draw 25% | Hannover 96 15%. Fair-value odds: Hamburger SV 1.67 | Draw 4.00 | Hannover 96 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Hamburger SV (60%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.12 / 1.04) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hamburger SV at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.17 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hamburger SV 50% | Hannover 96 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hamburger SV vs Hannover 96 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Volksparkstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 7 May 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hamburger SV 60% | Draw 25% | Hannover 96 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 60% | xG Hamburger SV 2.12 / Hannover 96 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Hamburger SV attack 1.298 / def 0.921 | Hannover 96 attack 0.783 / def 1.407 | league avg home 1.162 / away 1.449 • Poisson stance: Hamburger SV (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.12
Hamburger SV xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Hannover 96 xG
60%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hamburger SV vs Hannover 96 kick off?
Hamburger SV vs Hannover 96 kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 7 May 2022 at Volksparkstadion.
What was the final score in Hamburger SV vs Hannover 96?
Hamburger SV 2 - 1 Hannover 96.
Where is Hamburger SV vs Hannover 96 being played?
The match is being played at Volksparkstadion.
What competition is Hamburger SV vs Hannover 96 part of?
Hamburger SV vs Hannover 96 is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hamburger SV vs Hannover 96?
Our statistical model gives Hamburger SV a 60% chance of winning, Hannover 96 a 15% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Hamburger SV the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hamburger SV vs Hannover 96?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Hamburger SV and Hannover 96 will score (BTTS).
Will Hamburger SV vs Hannover 96 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and Hannover 96?
Record (1 meetings): Hamburger SV 0W | Draws 0 | Hannover 96 1W.
What form are Hamburger SV and Hannover 96 in?
Hamburger SV (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Hannover 96 (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Hamburger SV's attacking strength (1.30x league average) is weighed against Hannover 96's defensive record (1.41x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.12. The same calculation in reverse, Hannover 96's attack versus Hamburger SV's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hamburger SV Win
60%
1.68
25%
3.97
15%
6.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.12
Hamburger SV xG
Total xG
3.17
1.04
Hannover 96 xG
1.68
60%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
6.54
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
12%
8.34
Win to Nil
21%
4.78
2%
54.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.9 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hamburger SV vs Hannover 96?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Hamburger SV and Hannover 96 expected to score?
The model projects 2.12 expected goals for Hamburger SV and 1.04 for Hannover 96, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Hamburger SV vs Hannover 96?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hamburger SV come into this having played 32 games, going 14W 12D 6L for 1.69 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-W.
On the other side, Hannover 96 sit at 1.22 PPG from 32 outings (10W 9D 13L), a run that reads D-W-D-L-W across their last five.
Hamburger SV carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Hannover 96 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Hamburger SV's home form reads 8W 6D 2L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.88 PPG return.
Away from home, Hannover 96 have taken 1.12 points per game from 16 outings (5W 3D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hamburger SV come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hamburger SV are averaging 1.94 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Hannover 96 are on 0.97 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hamburger SV have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Defensively: Hannover 96 in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hamburger SV
Current Season
Hannover 96
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hamburger SV and Hannover 96 in coming into this match?
Hamburger SV have gone 14W 12D 6L in their last 32 games (1.69 PPG), while Hannover 96 have gone 10W 9D 13L in their last 32 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hamburger SV at home or Hannover 96 away?
Hamburger SV's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hamburger SV at home: 1.88 PPG; Hannover 96 away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Hamburger SV or Hannover 96 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hamburger SV have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Hannover 96 in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Apr 2023, when Hamburger SV won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hamburger SV's record when hosting Hannover 96 specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Hamburger SV
1
Draws
3
Hannover 96
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and Hannover 96?
From 8 meetings on record, Hamburger SV have won 4, Hannover 96 have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hamburger SV and Hannover 96 last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2025, when Hamburger SV 2-2 Hannover 96.
Who has won more matches between Hamburger SV and Hannover 96?
Hamburger SV have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Hannover 96 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hamburger SV 69%, Hannover 96 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Hamburger SV and 69% for Hannover 96. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hamburger SV keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Hannover 96 in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hamburger SV home games / Hannover 96 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hamburger SV play Hannover 96?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Hamburger SV's games and 50% of Hannover 96's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hamburger SV vs Hannover 96 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Hamburger SV's matches and 69% of Hannover 96's.
Do Hamburger SV and Hannover 96 tend to score early?
Hamburger SV have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Hannover 96 in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hamburger SV edge out Hannover 96 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hamburger SV beat Hannover 96 2-1 at Volksparkstadion, Regular Season - 33, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hamburger SV 2.12 xG and Hannover 96 1.04 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hamburger SV attack 1.30 / defence 0.92 against Hannover 96 attack 0.78 / defence 1.41, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hamburger SV 60% | Draw 25% | Hannover 96 15%, with Hamburger SV to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hamburger SV 56%, Hannover 96 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hamburger SV's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Hannover 96's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Hamburger SV arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.