Hamburger SV 4-2 Eintracht Braunschweig – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hamburger SV at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hamburger SV vs Eintracht Braunschweig fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 18 as Hamburger SV welcome Eintracht Braunschweig to Volksparkstadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 29 January 2023 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Hamburger SV have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hamburger SV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hamburger SV at Volksparkstadion this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Eintracht Braunschweig stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Braunschweig, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 1W 4D 3L from 8 away fixtures this term (0.88 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.88 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Hamburger SV carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Hamburger SV, 0 for Eintracht Braunschweig and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Jul 2022, ended 2–0 with Hamburger SV winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Hamburger SV in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Eintracht Braunschweig in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hamburger SV 47% versus Eintracht Braunschweig 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hamburger SV 47% | Eintracht Braunschweig 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hamburger SV 1.93 xG and Eintracht Braunschweig 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hamburger SV attack 1.165 / defence 0.991 | Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.840 / defence 1.156. League average goals — home 1.433 / away 1.296. Data: 51 Hamburger SV games / 17 Eintracht Braunschweig games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hamburger SV 57% | Draw 22% | Eintracht Braunschweig 21%. Fair-value odds: Hamburger SV 1.75 | Draw 4.55 | Eintracht Braunschweig 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Hamburger SV (57%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hamburger SV at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.01 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hamburger SV 50% | Eintracht Braunschweig 62% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hamburger SV vs Eintracht Braunschweig | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Volksparkstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Jan 2023, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hamburger SV 57% | Draw 22% | Eintracht Braunschweig 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 57% | xG Hamburger SV 1.93 / Eintracht Braunschweig 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Hamburger SV attack 1.165 / def 0.991 | Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.840 / def 1.156 | league avg home 1.433 / away 1.296 • Poisson stance: Hamburger SV (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Hamburger SV xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hamburger SV vs Eintracht Braunschweig kick off?
Hamburger SV vs Eintracht Braunschweig kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 29 January 2023 at Volksparkstadion.
What was the final score in Hamburger SV vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Hamburger SV 4 - 2 Eintracht Braunschweig.
Where is Hamburger SV vs Eintracht Braunschweig being played?
The match is being played at Volksparkstadion.
What competition is Hamburger SV vs Eintracht Braunschweig part of?
Hamburger SV vs Eintracht Braunschweig is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hamburger SV vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our statistical model gives Hamburger SV a 57% chance of winning, Eintracht Braunschweig a 21% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Hamburger SV the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hamburger SV vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Hamburger SV and Eintracht Braunschweig will score (BTTS).
Will Hamburger SV vs Eintracht Braunschweig have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and Eintracht Braunschweig?
Record (1 meetings): Hamburger SV 1W | Draws 0 | Eintracht Braunschweig 0W.
What form are Hamburger SV and Eintracht Braunschweig in?
Hamburger SV (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Eintracht Braunschweig (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Hamburger SV's attack rating (1.17) and Eintracht Braunschweig's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.93 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Eintracht Braunschweig's attack versus Hamburger SV's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hamburger SV Win
57%
1.75
22%
4.49
21%
4.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Hamburger SV xG
Total xG
3.01
1.08
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
1.75
57%
Home win
4.49
22%
Draw
4.83
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
15%
6.88
Win to Nil
19%
5.16
3%
33.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 10.3 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hamburger SV vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Hamburger SV and Eintracht Braunschweig expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Hamburger SV and 1.08 for Eintracht Braunschweig, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Hamburger SV vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hamburger SV's recent record stands at 11W 1D 5L from 17 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Hamburger SV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Eintracht Braunschweig, meanwhile, have gone 4W 6D 7L across 17 games — 1.06 PPG, with D-D-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Eintracht Braunschweig is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hamburger SV by 0.94 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Eintracht Braunschweig heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Hamburger SV have managed 5W 1D 2L from 8 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Eintracht Braunschweig's away record stands at 1W 4D 3L across 8 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hamburger SV come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hamburger SV are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Braunschweig are on 1.06 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Defensively: Hamburger SV have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hamburger SV
Blended
Eintracht Braunschweig
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hamburger SV and Eintracht Braunschweig in coming into this match?
Hamburger SV have gone 11W 1D 5L in their last 17 games (2.00 PPG), while Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 4W 6D 7L in their last 17 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hamburger SV at home or Eintracht Braunschweig away?
Hamburger SV's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hamburger SV at home: 2.00 PPG; Eintracht Braunschweig away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Hamburger SV or Eintracht Braunschweig been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hamburger SV have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Eintracht Braunschweig in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hamburger SV and Eintracht Braunschweig runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 April 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Eintracht Braunschweig have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Apr 2024, when Hamburger SV won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hamburger SV's record when hosting Eintracht Braunschweig specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Hamburger SV
0
Draws
2
Eintracht Braunschweig
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and Eintracht Braunschweig?
From 6 meetings on record, Hamburger SV have won 4, Eintracht Braunschweig have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hamburger SV and Eintracht Braunschweig last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2025, when Hamburger SV 2-4 Eintracht Braunschweig.
Who has won more matches between Hamburger SV and Eintracht Braunschweig?
Hamburger SV have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Eintracht Braunschweig see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hamburger SV 62%, Eintracht Braunschweig 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Hamburger SV) and 50% (Eintracht Braunschweig).
On the defensive side: Hamburger SV keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hamburger SV home games / Eintracht Braunschweig away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hamburger SV play Eintracht Braunschweig?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Hamburger SV's games and 62% of Eintracht Braunschweig's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hamburger SV vs Eintracht Braunschweig usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Hamburger SV's recent games and 50% of Eintracht Braunschweig's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hamburger SV and Eintracht Braunschweig tend to score early?
Hamburger SV have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Eintracht Braunschweig in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hamburger SV cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Eintracht Braunschweig.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hamburger SV beat Eintracht Braunschweig 4-2 at Volksparkstadion, Regular Season - 18, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hamburger SV 1.93 xG and Eintracht Braunschweig 1.08 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Hamburger SV beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Eintracht Braunschweig outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hamburger SV attack 1.17 / defence 0.99 against Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.84 / defence 1.16, drawn from 51/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hamburger SV 57% | Draw 22% | Eintracht Braunschweig 21%, with Hamburger SV to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hamburger SV 47%, Eintracht Braunschweig 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hamburger SV's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Eintracht Braunschweig's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hamburger SV arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.06. Form held, and they took the win. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.88 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Eintracht Braunschweig (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.