Fortuna Düsseldorf 2-1 SV Darmstadt 98 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fortuna Düsseldorf at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Darmstadt 98 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 33 sees SV Darmstadt 98 travel to Merkur Spiel-Arena to take on Fortuna Düsseldorf. The game is scheduled for Friday 6 May 2022, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 4W 6D 0L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: D W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fortuna Düsseldorf have posted 4W 3D 3L at Merkur Spiel-Arena — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
SV Darmstadt 98 — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
SV Darmstadt 98's away record: 7W 1D 2L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (2.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Fortuna Düsseldorf) versus 1.70 (SV Darmstadt 98). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Fortuna Düsseldorf, 0 for SV Darmstadt 98 and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Dec 2021, ended 3–1 with Fortuna Düsseldorf winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Fortuna Düsseldorf trading profile (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
SV Darmstadt 98 trading profile (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortuna Düsseldorf 59% versus SV Darmstadt 98 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Düsseldorf 50% | SV Darmstadt 98 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.48 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.126 / defence 0.949 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.885 / defence 1.137. League average goals — home 1.155 / away 1.466. Data: 32 Fortuna Düsseldorf games / 32 SV Darmstadt 98 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 40% | Draw 32% | SV Darmstadt 98 28%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.50 | Draw 3.12 | SV Darmstadt 98 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fortuna Düsseldorf are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fortuna Düsseldorf offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates are neutral: Fortuna Düsseldorf 50% | SV Darmstadt 98 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Darmstadt 98 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Merkur Spiel-Arena • Kick-off: Friday 6 May 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 40% | Draw 32% | SV Darmstadt 98 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 58% | xG Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.48 / SV Darmstadt 98 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.126 / def 0.949 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.885 / def 1.137 | league avg home 1.155 / away 1.466 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Düsseldorf (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Expected Goals
1.23
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Darmstadt 98 kick off?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Darmstadt 98 kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 6 May 2022 at Merkur Spiel-Arena.
What was the final score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Fortuna Düsseldorf 2 - 1 SV Darmstadt 98.
Where is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Darmstadt 98 being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Spiel-Arena.
What competition is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Darmstadt 98 part of?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Darmstadt 98 is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Düsseldorf a 40% chance of winning, SV Darmstadt 98 a 28% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Düsseldorf the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Fortuna Düsseldorf and SV Darmstadt 98 will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Darmstadt 98 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and SV Darmstadt 98?
Record (1 meetings): Fortuna Düsseldorf 1W | Draws 0 | SV Darmstadt 98 0W.
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and SV Darmstadt 98 in?
Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 4W-6D-0L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-D-D-W. SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack at 1.13x the league average against SV Darmstadt 98's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SV Darmstadt 98's attack versus Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Düsseldorf Win
40%
2.52
32%
3.13
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Total xG
2.71
1.23
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
23%
4.39
Win to Nil
12%
8.62
6%
15.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.2 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.1 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.0 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Fortuna Düsseldorf and SV Darmstadt 98 expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1.23 for SV Darmstadt 98, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Fortuna Düsseldorf come into this having played 32 games, going 10W 11D 11L for 1.28 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-D-W.
On the other side, SV Darmstadt 98 sit at 1.78 PPG from 32 outings (17W 6D 9L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-W across their last five.
SV Darmstadt 98 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Fortuna Düsseldorf — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Fortuna Düsseldorf's home form reads 5W 6D 5L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.31 PPG return.
Away from home, SV Darmstadt 98 have taken 1.69 points per game from 16 outings (8W 3D 5L).
Goals in Recent Form
Fortuna Düsseldorf are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; SV Darmstadt 98 are on 2.09 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 32 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Current Season
SV Darmstadt 98
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and SV Darmstadt 98 in coming into this match?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 10W 11D 11L in their last 32 games (1.28 PPG), while SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 17W 6D 9L in their last 32 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home or SV Darmstadt 98 away?
SV Darmstadt 98's away record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home: 1.31 PPG; SV Darmstadt 98 away: 1.69 PPG.
Have Fortuna Düsseldorf or SV Darmstadt 98 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, SV Darmstadt 98 in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
SV Darmstadt 98 have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Sep 2025, when SV Darmstadt 98 won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's record when hosting SV Darmstadt 98 specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1
Draws
3
SV Darmstadt 98
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and SV Darmstadt 98?
From 8 meetings on record, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 4, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Düsseldorf and SV Darmstadt 98 last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when SV Darmstadt 98 2-1 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Who has won more matches between Fortuna Düsseldorf and SV Darmstadt 98?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Fortuna Düsseldorf at 69%, SV Darmstadt 98 at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Fortuna Düsseldorf) and 62% (SV Darmstadt 98). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Düsseldorf home games / SV Darmstadt 98 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Düsseldorf play SV Darmstadt 98?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's games and 62% of SV Darmstadt 98's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Darmstadt 98 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's matches and 62% of SV Darmstadt 98's.
Do Fortuna Düsseldorf and SV Darmstadt 98 tend to score early?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, SV Darmstadt 98 in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fortuna Düsseldorf edge out SV Darmstadt 98 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Düsseldorf beat SV Darmstadt 98 2-1 at Merkur Spiel-Arena, Regular Season - 33, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.48 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.23 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.13 / defence 0.95 against SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.89 / defence 1.14, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Düsseldorf 40% | Draw 32% | SV Darmstadt 98 28%, with Fortuna Düsseldorf to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Düsseldorf 50%, SV Darmstadt 98 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SV Darmstadt 98 arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.28. Form was overturned, with Fortuna Düsseldorf winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.