Fortuna Düsseldorf 3-1 Karlsruher SC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Karlsruher SC at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Karlsruher SC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fortuna Düsseldorf host Karlsruher SC at Merkur Spiel-Arena in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 23 October 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Fortuna Düsseldorf — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W D W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Düsseldorf, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fortuna Düsseldorf have posted 0W 2D 2L at Merkur Spiel-Arena — 0.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.50 lags behind their overall 1.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Merkur Spiel-Arena this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Karlsruher SC stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Karlsruher SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Karlsruher SC's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 1L across 5 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.20 PPG, Karlsruher SC 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
Fortuna Düsseldorf trading profile (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Karlsruher SC trading profile (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fortuna Düsseldorf 70% and Karlsruher SC 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Fortuna Düsseldorf 50% | Karlsruher SC 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.38 xG and Karlsruher SC 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.116 / defence 1.326 | Karlsruher SC attack 0.892 / defence 1.148. League average goals — home 1.078 / away 1.429. Data: 10 Fortuna Düsseldorf games / 10 Karlsruher SC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 28% | Draw 30% | Karlsruher SC 42%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Düsseldorf 3.57 | Draw 3.33 | Karlsruher SC 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.38 / 1.69) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Karlsruher SC as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Karlsruher SC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.07 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Fortuna Düsseldorf 100% | Karlsruher SC 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Karlsruher SC | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Merkur Spiel-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Oct 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 28% | Draw 30% | Karlsruher SC 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 64% | xG Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.38 / Karlsruher SC 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.116 / def 1.326 | Karlsruher SC attack 0.892 / def 1.148 | league avg home 1.078 / away 1.429 • Poisson stance: Karlsruher SC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Karlsruher SC xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Karlsruher SC kick off?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Karlsruher SC kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 23 October 2021 at Merkur Spiel-Arena.
What was the final score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Karlsruher SC?
Fortuna Düsseldorf 3 - 1 Karlsruher SC.
Where is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Karlsruher SC being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Spiel-Arena.
What competition is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Karlsruher SC part of?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Karlsruher SC is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Karlsruher SC?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Düsseldorf a 28% chance of winning, Karlsruher SC a 42% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Karlsruher SC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Karlsruher SC?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Fortuna Düsseldorf and Karlsruher SC will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Karlsruher SC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and Karlsruher SC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and Karlsruher SC in?
Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-L-D. Karlsruher SC (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack at 1.12x the league average against Karlsruher SC's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Karlsruher SC's attack versus Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence, projects 1.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Karlsruher SC Win
28%
3.52
30%
3.36
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Total xG
3.07
1.69
Karlsruher SC xG
3.52
28%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.79
Clean Sheet
18%
5.42
25%
3.98
Win to Nil
5%
19.07
11%
9.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 7.8 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.8 | 9.1 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.5 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Karlsruher SC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Fortuna Düsseldorf and Karlsruher SC expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1.69 for Karlsruher SC, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Karlsruher SC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 10 outings, Fortuna Düsseldorf have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 3W 3D 4L record — W-D-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Fortuna Düsseldorf is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Karlsruher SC's form line: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games, 1.60 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-W. The sample for Karlsruher SC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Karlsruher SC are the form team by 0.40 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Venue Form
On home soil, Fortuna Düsseldorf have posted 0.50 PPG from 4 outings (0W 2D 2L). That actually lags their 1.20 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Karlsruher SC have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Karlsruher SC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fortuna Düsseldorf are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Karlsruher SC are on 1.60 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fortuna Düsseldorf have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Karlsruher SC in 70%.
Last 10 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Blended
Karlsruher SC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and Karlsruher SC in coming into this match?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 games (1.20 PPG), while Karlsruher SC have gone 4W 4D 2L in their last 10 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home or Karlsruher SC away?
Karlsruher SC's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home: 0.50 PPG; Karlsruher SC away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Fortuna Düsseldorf or Karlsruher SC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Karlsruher SC in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's record when hosting Karlsruher SC specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Fortuna Düsseldorf
5
Draws
0
Karlsruher SC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and Karlsruher SC?
From 10 meetings on record, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 5, Karlsruher SC have won 0, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Düsseldorf and Karlsruher SC last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Karlsruher SC 1-1 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Who has won more matches between Fortuna Düsseldorf and Karlsruher SC?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Karlsruher SC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Fortuna Düsseldorf at 100%, Karlsruher SC at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 75% for Karlsruher SC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 75% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Düsseldorf home games / Karlsruher SC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Düsseldorf play Karlsruher SC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's games and 75% of Karlsruher SC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Karlsruher SC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's matches and 75% of Karlsruher SC's.
Do Fortuna Düsseldorf and Karlsruher SC tend to score early?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Karlsruher SC in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fortuna Düsseldorf cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Karlsruher SC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Düsseldorf beat Karlsruher SC 3-1 at Merkur Spiel-Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.38 xG and Karlsruher SC 1.69 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Fortuna Düsseldorf beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.12 / defence 1.33 against Karlsruher SC attack 0.89 / defence 1.15, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Düsseldorf 28% | Draw 30% | Karlsruher SC 42%, with Karlsruher SC to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Fortuna Düsseldorf win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Düsseldorf 50%, Karlsruher SC 80%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Karlsruher SC's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Karlsruher SC arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.20. Form was overturned, with Fortuna Düsseldorf winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line. Karlsruher SC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.