Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-1 Hamburger SV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Fortuna Düsseldorf take on Hamburger SV.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fortuna Düsseldorf host Hamburger SV at Merkur Spiel-Arena in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 19 March 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Fortuna Düsseldorf — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Düsseldorf, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Merkur Spiel-Arena this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Hamburger SV have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hamburger SV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, Hamburger SV have posted 3W 5D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Fortuna Düsseldorf) versus 1.50 (Hamburger SV). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Fortuna Düsseldorf register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Hamburger SV in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 0, Hamburger SV 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Fortuna Düsseldorf in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Hamburger SV in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fortuna Düsseldorf 60% and Hamburger SV 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Düsseldorf 48% | Hamburger SV 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.26 xG and Hamburger SV 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.066 / defence 0.925 | Hamburger SV attack 0.911 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.141 / away 1.496. Data: 26 Fortuna Düsseldorf games / 25 Hamburger SV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 33% | Draw 34% | Hamburger SV 33%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Düsseldorf 3.03 | Draw 2.94 | Hamburger SV 3.03. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Fortuna Düsseldorf 60% | Hamburger SV 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hamburger SV | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Merkur Spiel-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Mar 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 33% | Draw 34% | Hamburger SV 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 55% | xG Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.26 / Hamburger SV 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.066 / def 0.925 | Hamburger SV attack 0.911 / def 1.039 | league avg home 1.141 / away 1.496 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Hamburger SV xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hamburger SV kick off?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hamburger SV kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 19 March 2022 at Merkur Spiel-Arena.
What was the final score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hamburger SV?
Fortuna Düsseldorf 1 - 1 Hamburger SV.
Where is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hamburger SV being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Spiel-Arena.
What competition is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hamburger SV part of?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hamburger SV is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hamburger SV?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Düsseldorf a 33% chance of winning, Hamburger SV a 33% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hamburger SV?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hamburger SV will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hamburger SV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hamburger SV?
Record (1 meetings): Fortuna Düsseldorf 0W | Draws 1 | Hamburger SV 0W.
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hamburger SV in?
Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. Hamburger SV (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Fortuna Düsseldorf's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Hamburger SV's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. The same calculation in reverse, Hamburger SV's attack versus Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.04
34%
2.91
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Total xG
2.52
1.26
Hamburger SV xG
3.04
33%
Home win
2.91
34%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
28%
3.52
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
9%
10.71
9%
10.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 10.1 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.8 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.1 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hamburger SV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hamburger SV expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1.26 for Hamburger SV, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hamburger SV?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 25 outings, Fortuna Düsseldorf have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 7W 7D 11L record — W-W-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Fortuna Düsseldorf is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hamburger SV's form line: 10W 11D 4L from 25 games, 1.64 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-L. The sample for Hamburger SV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Hamburger SV are the form team by 0.52 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Fortuna Düsseldorf have posted 1.33 PPG from 12 outings (4W 4D 4L).
On the road, Hamburger SV have gone 4W 5D 3L from 12 away games — 1.42 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Fortuna Düsseldorf are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Hamburger SV are on 1.80 scored and 1.04 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fortuna Düsseldorf have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Hamburger SV in 72%.
Last 25 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Blended
Hamburger SV
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hamburger SV in coming into this match?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 7W 7D 11L in their last 25 games (1.12 PPG), while Hamburger SV have gone 10W 11D 4L in their last 25 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home or Hamburger SV away?
Hamburger SV's away record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home: 1.33 PPG; Hamburger SV away: 1.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hamburger SV runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Hamburger SV go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Oct 2024, when Hamburger SV won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's record when hosting Hamburger SV specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Fortuna Düsseldorf
3
Draws
4
Hamburger SV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hamburger SV?
From 8 meetings on record, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 1, Hamburger SV have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hamburger SV last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2025, when Hamburger SV 4-1 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Who has won more matches between Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hamburger SV?
Hamburger SV have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Fortuna Düsseldorf at 67%, Hamburger SV at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Fortuna Düsseldorf) and 42% (Hamburger SV).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Düsseldorf home games / Hamburger SV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Düsseldorf play Hamburger SV?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's games and 67% of Hamburger SV's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hamburger SV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's recent games and 42% of Hamburger SV's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hamburger SV tend to score early?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Hamburger SV in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hamburger SV share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hamburger SV finished level at 1-1 at Merkur Spiel-Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.26 xG and Hamburger SV 1.26 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.07 / defence 0.93 against Hamburger SV attack 0.91 / defence 1.04, drawn from 26/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Düsseldorf 33% | Draw 34% | Hamburger SV 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 34%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Düsseldorf 48%, Hamburger SV 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Hamburger SV's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hamburger SV arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.