Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-0 FC St. Pauli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fortuna Düsseldorf at 69% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC St. Pauli encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC St. Pauli make the trip to Merkur Spiel-Arena to face Fortuna Düsseldorf in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Saturday 5 November 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Fortuna Düsseldorf (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Düsseldorf, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Merkur Spiel-Arena, Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Fortuna Düsseldorf are significantly better at Merkur Spiel-Arena than their overall form suggests.
FC St. Pauli's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC St. Pauli's away record: 0W 3D 7L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Fortuna Düsseldorf. A 0.80 PPG lead over FC St. Pauli (1.60 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Fortuna Düsseldorf have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, FC St. Pauli in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Fortuna Düsseldorf lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 May 2022, ended 0–2 with FC St. Pauli winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Fortuna Düsseldorf — key trading statistics (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
FC St. Pauli — key trading statistics (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fortuna Düsseldorf 58% and FC St. Pauli 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Düsseldorf 54% | FC St. Pauli 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.37 xG and FC St. Pauli 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.293 / defence 0.956 | FC St. Pauli attack 0.760 / defence 1.279. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.269. Fortuna Düsseldorf carry an above-average attack strength of 1.293 — their λ of 2.37 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. FC St. Pauli bring a strong defensive rating of 1.279 — this is suppressing Fortuna Düsseldorf's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 Fortuna Düsseldorf games / 48 FC St. Pauli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 69% | Draw 19% | FC St. Pauli 12%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.45 | Draw 5.26 | FC St. Pauli 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Fortuna Düsseldorf (69%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fortuna Düsseldorf are the pick at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.29 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Fortuna Düsseldorf 70% | FC St. Pauli 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC St. Pauli | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Merkur Spiel-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Nov 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 69% | Draw 19% | FC St. Pauli 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 55% | xG Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.37 / FC St. Pauli 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.293 / def 0.956 | FC St. Pauli attack 0.760 / def 1.279 | league avg home 1.430 / away 1.269 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Düsseldorf (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.37
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Expected Goals
0.92
FC St. Pauli xG
55%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC St. Pauli kick off?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC St. Pauli kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 5 November 2022 at Merkur Spiel-Arena.
What was the final score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC St. Pauli?
Fortuna Düsseldorf 1 - 0 FC St. Pauli.
Where is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC St. Pauli being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Spiel-Arena.
What competition is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC St. Pauli part of?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC St. Pauli is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC St. Pauli?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Düsseldorf a 69% chance of winning, FC St. Pauli a 12% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Düsseldorf the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC St. Pauli?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Fortuna Düsseldorf and FC St. Pauli will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC St. Pauli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and FC St. Pauli?
Record (2 meetings): Fortuna Düsseldorf 0W | Draws 1 | FC St. Pauli 1W.
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and FC St. Pauli in?
Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. FC St. Pauli (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack at 1.29x the league average against FC St. Pauli's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 2.37 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC St. Pauli's attack (0.76x) against Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Düsseldorf Win
69%
1.46
19%
5.23
12%
8.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.37
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Total xG
3.29
0.92
FC St. Pauli xG
1.46
69%
Home win
5.23
19%
Draw
8.20
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
9%
10.64
Win to Nil
27%
3.66
1%
87.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.8 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.2 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC St. Pauli?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Fortuna Düsseldorf and FC St. Pauli expected to score?
The model projects 2.37 expected goals for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 0.92 for FC St. Pauli, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC St. Pauli?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 48 outings, Fortuna Düsseldorf have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 18W 13D 17L record — W-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Fortuna Düsseldorf is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC St. Pauli's form line: 19W 15D 14L from 48 games, 1.50 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-D. The sample for FC St. Pauli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Fortuna Düsseldorf against 1.50 for FC St. Pauli. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Fortuna Düsseldorf have posted 1.61 PPG from 23 outings (10W 7D 6L).
On the road, FC St. Pauli have gone 5W 6D 12L from 23 away games — 0.91 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC St. Pauli's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fortuna Düsseldorf come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Fortuna Düsseldorf are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; FC St. Pauli are on 1.67 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC St. Pauli in 62%.
Last 48 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Blended
FC St. Pauli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and FC St. Pauli in coming into this match?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 18W 13D 17L in their last 48 games (1.40 PPG), while FC St. Pauli have gone 19W 15D 14L in their last 48 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home or FC St. Pauli away?
Fortuna Düsseldorf's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home: 1.61 PPG; FC St. Pauli away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against FC St. Pauli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Fortuna Düsseldorf
3
Draws
2
FC St. Pauli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and FC St. Pauli?
From 6 meetings on record, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 1, FC St. Pauli have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Düsseldorf and FC St. Pauli last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2024, when Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-2 FC St. Pauli.
Who has won more matches between Fortuna Düsseldorf and FC St. Pauli?
FC St. Pauli have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 70% for Fortuna Düsseldorf, 70% for FC St. Pauli — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 61% for FC St. Pauli. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC St. Pauli in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Düsseldorf home games / FC St. Pauli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Düsseldorf play FC St. Pauli?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's games and 70% of FC St. Pauli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC St. Pauli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's matches and 61% of FC St. Pauli's.
Do Fortuna Düsseldorf and FC St. Pauli tend to score early?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, FC St. Pauli in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fortuna Düsseldorf edge out FC St. Pauli 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Düsseldorf beat FC St. Pauli 1-0 at Merkur Spiel-Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.37 xG and FC St. Pauli 0.92 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Fortuna Düsseldorf fell 1.4 short of their projected output. FC St. Pauli landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.29 / defence 0.96 against FC St. Pauli attack 0.76 / defence 1.28, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Düsseldorf 69% | Draw 19% | FC St. Pauli 12%, with Fortuna Düsseldorf to win its most likely call at 69%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Düsseldorf 54%, FC St. Pauli 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.40 PPG, FC St. Pauli 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fortuna Düsseldorf win broke the near-deadlock. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.