Fortuna Düsseldorf 3-1 Eintracht Braunschweig – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fortuna Düsseldorf at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Eintracht Braunschweig encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Eintracht Braunschweig make the trip to Merkur Spiel-Arena to face Fortuna Düsseldorf in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Friday 24 February 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Fortuna Düsseldorf's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 5W 0D 5L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Düsseldorf, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's home record at Merkur Spiel-Arena: 7W 1D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Fortuna Düsseldorf are significantly better at Merkur Spiel-Arena than their overall form suggests.
Eintracht Braunschweig (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Braunschweig, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Eintracht Braunschweig's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Fortuna Düsseldorf's 1.50 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Eintracht Braunschweig's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Fortuna Düsseldorf have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Eintracht Braunschweig in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Fortuna Düsseldorf, 0 for Eintracht Braunschweig and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Fortuna Düsseldorf goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games).
Eintracht Braunschweig goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortuna Düsseldorf 57% versus Eintracht Braunschweig 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Düsseldorf 62% | Eintracht Braunschweig 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.27 xG and Eintracht Braunschweig 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.184 / defence 0.891 | Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.890 / defence 1.321. League average goals — home 1.455 / away 1.333. Eintracht Braunschweig bring a strong defensive rating of 1.321 — this is suppressing Fortuna Düsseldorf's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 55 Fortuna Düsseldorf games / 21 Eintracht Braunschweig games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 65% | Draw 19% | Eintracht Braunschweig 16%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.54 | Draw 5.26 | Eintracht Braunschweig 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Fortuna Düsseldorf (65%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fortuna Düsseldorf are the pick at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.33 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Fortuna Düsseldorf 60% | Eintracht Braunschweig 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Eintracht Braunschweig | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Merkur Spiel-Arena • Kick-off: Friday 24 Feb 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 65% | Draw 19% | Eintracht Braunschweig 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 59% | xG Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.27 / Eintracht Braunschweig 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.184 / def 0.891 | Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.890 / def 1.321 | league avg home 1.455 / away 1.333 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Düsseldorf (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.27
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
59%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Eintracht Braunschweig kick off?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Eintracht Braunschweig kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 24 February 2023 at Merkur Spiel-Arena.
What was the final score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Fortuna Düsseldorf 3 - 1 Eintracht Braunschweig.
Where is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Eintracht Braunschweig being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Spiel-Arena.
What competition is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Eintracht Braunschweig part of?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Eintracht Braunschweig is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Düsseldorf a 65% chance of winning, Eintracht Braunschweig a 16% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Düsseldorf the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Fortuna Düsseldorf and Eintracht Braunschweig will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Eintracht Braunschweig have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and Eintracht Braunschweig?
Record (1 meetings): Fortuna Düsseldorf 0W | Draws 1 | Eintracht Braunschweig 0W.
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and Eintracht Braunschweig in?
Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Eintracht Braunschweig (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack at 1.18x the league average against Eintracht Braunschweig's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 2.27 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Eintracht Braunschweig's attack (0.89x) against Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 55/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (9.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Düsseldorf Win
65%
1.54
19%
5.28
16%
6.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.27
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Total xG
3.33
1.06
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
1.54
65%
Home win
5.28
19%
Draw
6.13
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
10%
9.73
Win to Nil
23%
4.44
2%
59.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.1 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 7.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Fortuna Düsseldorf and Eintracht Braunschweig expected to score?
The model projects 2.27 expected goals for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1.06 for Eintracht Braunschweig, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fortuna Düsseldorf's recent record stands at 10W 2D 9L from 21 games, a 1.52 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Fortuna Düsseldorf is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Eintracht Braunschweig, meanwhile, have gone 5W 6D 10L across 21 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Eintracht Braunschweig is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fortuna Düsseldorf by 0.52 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Eintracht Braunschweig heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Fortuna Düsseldorf have managed 7W 1D 2L from 10 games — 2.20 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.52 PPG overall — Fortuna Düsseldorf are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Eintracht Braunschweig's away record stands at 1W 4D 5L across 10 trips, a 0.70 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fortuna Düsseldorf come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fortuna Düsseldorf are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Braunschweig are on 1.19 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 21 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Blended
Eintracht Braunschweig
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and Eintracht Braunschweig in coming into this match?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 10W 2D 9L in their last 21 games (1.52 PPG), while Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 5W 6D 10L in their last 21 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home or Eintracht Braunschweig away?
Fortuna Düsseldorf's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home: 2.20 PPG; Eintracht Braunschweig away: 0.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Eintracht Braunschweig have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fortuna Düsseldorf won 5-0 on 8 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Eintracht Braunschweig — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Fortuna Düsseldorf
2
Draws
2
Eintracht Braunschweig
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and Eintracht Braunschweig?
From 8 meetings on record, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 4, Eintracht Braunschweig have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Düsseldorf and Eintracht Braunschweig last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Eintracht Braunschweig 1-0 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Who has won more matches between Fortuna Düsseldorf and Eintracht Braunschweig?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Eintracht Braunschweig see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 60% for Fortuna Düsseldorf, 70% for Eintracht Braunschweig — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 60% for Eintracht Braunschweig. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Düsseldorf home games / Eintracht Braunschweig away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Düsseldorf play Eintracht Braunschweig?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's games and 70% of Eintracht Braunschweig's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Eintracht Braunschweig usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's matches and 60% of Eintracht Braunschweig's.
Do Fortuna Düsseldorf and Eintracht Braunschweig tend to score early?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Eintracht Braunschweig in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fortuna Düsseldorf cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Eintracht Braunschweig.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Düsseldorf beat Eintracht Braunschweig 3-1 at Merkur Spiel-Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.27 xG and Eintracht Braunschweig 1.06 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.18 / defence 0.89 against Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.89 / defence 1.32, drawn from 55/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Düsseldorf 65% | Draw 19% | Eintracht Braunschweig 16%, with Fortuna Düsseldorf to win its most likely call at 65%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Düsseldorf 62%, Eintracht Braunschweig 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Eintracht Braunschweig's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fortuna Düsseldorf arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Eintracht Braunschweig (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.