FC St. Pauli 1-1 SV Darmstadt 98 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC St. Pauli at 44%, yet in-form SV Darmstadt 98 provide a compelling counter-argument — this FC St. Pauli vs SV Darmstadt 98 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC St. Pauli host SV Darmstadt 98 at Millerntor-Stadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 29 October 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
FC St. Pauli — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC St. Pauli's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 games at Millerntor-Stadion this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — FC St. Pauli are significantly better at Millerntor-Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, SV Darmstadt 98 stand at 6W 4D 0L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SV Darmstadt 98 away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. SV Darmstadt 98 are 1.20 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC St. Pauli register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, SV Darmstadt 98 in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, FC St. Pauli have won 0, SV Darmstadt 98 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2022, ended 1–2 with SV Darmstadt 98 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
FC St. Pauli trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
SV Darmstadt 98 trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC St. Pauli 62% versus SV Darmstadt 98 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC St. Pauli 64% | SV Darmstadt 98 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC St. Pauli 1.57 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC St. Pauli attack 1.171 / defence 0.791 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.189 / defence 0.927. League average goals — home 1.450 / away 1.271. FC St. Pauli's defence rating of 0.791 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 47 FC St. Pauli games / 47 SV Darmstadt 98 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 44% | Draw 28% | SV Darmstadt 98 27%. Fair-value odds: FC St. Pauli 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | SV Darmstadt 98 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC St. Pauli as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form SV Darmstadt 98 (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC St. Pauli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC St. Pauli 60% | SV Darmstadt 98 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC St. Pauli vs SV Darmstadt 98 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Millerntor-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Oct 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 44% | Draw 28% | SV Darmstadt 98 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG FC St. Pauli 1.57 / SV Darmstadt 98 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: FC St. Pauli attack 1.171 / def 0.791 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.189 / def 0.927 | league avg home 1.450 / away 1.271 • Poisson stance: FC St. Pauli (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
FC St. Pauli xG
Expected Goals
1.20
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC St. Pauli vs SV Darmstadt 98 kick off?
FC St. Pauli vs SV Darmstadt 98 kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 29 October 2022 at Millerntor-Stadion.
What was the final score in FC St. Pauli vs SV Darmstadt 98?
FC St. Pauli 1 - 1 SV Darmstadt 98.
Where is FC St. Pauli vs SV Darmstadt 98 being played?
The match is being played at Millerntor-Stadion.
What competition is FC St. Pauli vs SV Darmstadt 98 part of?
FC St. Pauli vs SV Darmstadt 98 is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC St. Pauli vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our statistical model gives FC St. Pauli a 44% chance of winning, SV Darmstadt 98 a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FC St. Pauli the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC St. Pauli vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both FC St. Pauli and SV Darmstadt 98 will score (BTTS).
Will FC St. Pauli vs SV Darmstadt 98 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and SV Darmstadt 98?
Record (2 meetings): FC St. Pauli 0W | Draws 0 | SV Darmstadt 98 2W.
What form are FC St. Pauli and SV Darmstadt 98 in?
FC St. Pauli (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC St. Pauli's attack at 1.17x the league average against SV Darmstadt 98's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SV Darmstadt 98's attack versus FC St. Pauli's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC St. Pauli Win
44%
2.25
28%
3.51
27%
3.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
FC St. Pauli xG
Total xG
2.77
1.20
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
3.68
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
21%
4.83
Win to Nil
13%
7.45
6%
17.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 11.8 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.3 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC St. Pauli vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are FC St. Pauli and SV Darmstadt 98 expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for FC St. Pauli and 1.20 for SV Darmstadt 98, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for FC St. Pauli vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC St. Pauli's recent record stands at 19W 14D 14L from 47 games, a 1.51 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for FC St. Pauli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SV Darmstadt 98, meanwhile, have gone 26W 10D 11L across 47 games — 1.87 PPG, with W-W-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for SV Darmstadt 98 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC St. Pauli on 1.51 PPG, SV Darmstadt 98 on 1.87. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FC St. Pauli have managed 14W 7D 2L from 23 games — 2.13 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.51 PPG overall — FC St. Pauli are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
SV Darmstadt 98's away record stands at 12W 4D 7L across 23 trips, a 1.74 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
FC St. Pauli are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; SV Darmstadt 98 are on 2.00 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC St. Pauli have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 47 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC St. Pauli
Blended
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC St. Pauli and SV Darmstadt 98 in coming into this match?
FC St. Pauli have gone 19W 14D 14L in their last 47 games (1.51 PPG), while SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 26W 10D 11L in their last 47 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC St. Pauli at home or SV Darmstadt 98 away?
FC St. Pauli's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC St. Pauli at home: 2.13 PPG; SV Darmstadt 98 away: 1.74 PPG.
Have FC St. Pauli or SV Darmstadt 98 been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC St. Pauli have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, SV Darmstadt 98 in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Nov 2021, when SV Darmstadt 98 won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC St. Pauli's record when hosting SV Darmstadt 98 specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
FC St. Pauli
1
Draws
2
SV Darmstadt 98
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and SV Darmstadt 98?
From 4 meetings on record, FC St. Pauli have won 1, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC St. Pauli and SV Darmstadt 98 last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2023, when SV Darmstadt 98 0-3 FC St. Pauli.
Who has won more matches between FC St. Pauli and SV Darmstadt 98?
SV Darmstadt 98 have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC St. Pauli 56%, SV Darmstadt 98 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for FC St. Pauli and 65% for SV Darmstadt 98. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC St. Pauli keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC St. Pauli home games / SV Darmstadt 98 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC St. Pauli play SV Darmstadt 98?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of FC St. Pauli's games and 65% of SV Darmstadt 98's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC St. Pauli vs SV Darmstadt 98 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of FC St. Pauli's matches and 65% of SV Darmstadt 98's.
Do FC St. Pauli and SV Darmstadt 98 tend to score early?
FC St. Pauli have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, SV Darmstadt 98 in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC St. Pauli and SV Darmstadt 98 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC St. Pauli and SV Darmstadt 98 finished level at 1-1 at Millerntor-Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC St. Pauli 1.57 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.20 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC St. Pauli attack 1.17 / defence 0.79 against SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.19 / defence 0.93, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC St. Pauli 44% | Draw 28% | SV Darmstadt 98 27%, with FC St. Pauli to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC St. Pauli 64%, SV Darmstadt 98 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC St. Pauli 1.51 PPG, SV Darmstadt 98 1.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.13 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.