FC St. Pauli 1-2 SV Darmstadt 98 – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates FC St. Pauli at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC St. Pauli vs SV Darmstadt 98 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC St. Pauli host SV Darmstadt 98 at Millerntor-Stadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 23 April 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
FC St. Pauli — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
FC St. Pauli's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Millerntor-Stadion this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — FC St. Pauli are significantly better at Millerntor-Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, SV Darmstadt 98 stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
SV Darmstadt 98 away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC St. Pauli 1.60 PPG, SV Darmstadt 98 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, FC St. Pauli have won 0, SV Darmstadt 98 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Nov 2021, ended 0–4 with SV Darmstadt 98 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
FC St. Pauli trading profile (30 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
SV Darmstadt 98 trading profile (30 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC St. Pauli 63% and SV Darmstadt 98 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC St. Pauli 67% | SV Darmstadt 98 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC St. Pauli 1.49 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC St. Pauli attack 1.107 / defence 1.017 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.868 / defence 1.190. League average goals — home 1.128 / away 1.434. Data: 30 FC St. Pauli games / 30 SV Darmstadt 98 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 40% | Draw 31% | SV Darmstadt 98 30%. Fair-value odds: FC St. Pauli 2.50 | Draw 3.23 | SV Darmstadt 98 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC St. Pauli as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC St. Pauli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC St. Pauli 60% | SV Darmstadt 98 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC St. Pauli vs SV Darmstadt 98 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Millerntor-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Apr 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 40% | Draw 31% | SV Darmstadt 98 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 58% | xG FC St. Pauli 1.49 / SV Darmstadt 98 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: FC St. Pauli attack 1.107 / def 1.017 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.868 / def 1.190 | league avg home 1.128 / away 1.434 • Poisson stance: FC St. Pauli (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
FC St. Pauli xG
Expected Goals
1.27
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC St. Pauli vs SV Darmstadt 98 kick off?
FC St. Pauli vs SV Darmstadt 98 kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 23 April 2022 at Millerntor-Stadion.
What was the final score in FC St. Pauli vs SV Darmstadt 98?
FC St. Pauli 1 - 2 SV Darmstadt 98.
Where is FC St. Pauli vs SV Darmstadt 98 being played?
The match is being played at Millerntor-Stadion.
What competition is FC St. Pauli vs SV Darmstadt 98 part of?
FC St. Pauli vs SV Darmstadt 98 is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC St. Pauli vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our statistical model gives FC St. Pauli a 40% chance of winning, SV Darmstadt 98 a 30% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making FC St. Pauli the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC St. Pauli vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both FC St. Pauli and SV Darmstadt 98 will score (BTTS).
Will FC St. Pauli vs SV Darmstadt 98 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and SV Darmstadt 98?
Record (1 meetings): FC St. Pauli 0W | Draws 0 | SV Darmstadt 98 1W.
What form are FC St. Pauli and SV Darmstadt 98 in?
FC St. Pauli (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-D-D. SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC St. Pauli's attack at 1.11x the league average against SV Darmstadt 98's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SV Darmstadt 98's attack versus FC St. Pauli's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 0-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC St. Pauli Win
40%
2.53
31%
3.24
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
FC St. Pauli xG
Total xG
2.75
1.27
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
23%
4.41
Win to Nil
11%
8.97
7%
14.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 8.1 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.0 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.9 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC St. Pauli vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are FC St. Pauli and SV Darmstadt 98 expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for FC St. Pauli and 1.27 for SV Darmstadt 98, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for FC St. Pauli vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC St. Pauli's recent record stands at 15W 8D 7L from 30 games, a 1.77 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-D in the last five.
SV Darmstadt 98, meanwhile, have gone 15W 6D 9L across 30 games — 1.70 PPG, with D-L-W-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC St. Pauli on 1.77 PPG, SV Darmstadt 98 on 1.70. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FC St. Pauli have managed 10W 3D 1L from 14 games — 2.36 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.77 PPG overall — FC St. Pauli are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
SV Darmstadt 98's away record stands at 7W 3D 4L across 14 trips, a 1.71 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC St. Pauli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC St. Pauli are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; SV Darmstadt 98 are on 1.97 scored and 1.43 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: FC St. Pauli have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC St. Pauli
Current Season
SV Darmstadt 98
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC St. Pauli and SV Darmstadt 98 in coming into this match?
FC St. Pauli have gone 15W 8D 7L in their last 30 games (1.77 PPG), while SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 15W 6D 9L in their last 30 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC St. Pauli at home or SV Darmstadt 98 away?
FC St. Pauli's home record (2.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC St. Pauli at home: 2.36 PPG; SV Darmstadt 98 away: 1.71 PPG.
Have FC St. Pauli or SV Darmstadt 98 been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC St. Pauli have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, SV Darmstadt 98 in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Nov 2021, when SV Darmstadt 98 won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC St. Pauli's record when hosting SV Darmstadt 98 specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
FC St. Pauli
1
Draws
2
SV Darmstadt 98
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and SV Darmstadt 98?
From 4 meetings on record, FC St. Pauli have won 1, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC St. Pauli and SV Darmstadt 98 last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2023, when SV Darmstadt 98 0-3 FC St. Pauli.
Who has won more matches between FC St. Pauli and SV Darmstadt 98?
SV Darmstadt 98 have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time.
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC St. Pauli 57%, SV Darmstadt 98 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 79% for FC St. Pauli and 57% for SV Darmstadt 98. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC St. Pauli keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC St. Pauli home games / SV Darmstadt 98 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC St. Pauli play SV Darmstadt 98?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of FC St. Pauli's games and 64% of SV Darmstadt 98's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC St. Pauli vs SV Darmstadt 98 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 79% of FC St. Pauli's matches and 57% of SV Darmstadt 98's.
Do FC St. Pauli and SV Darmstadt 98 tend to score early?
FC St. Pauli have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, SV Darmstadt 98 in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SV Darmstadt 98 defy the odds to beat FC St. Pauli 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Darmstadt 98 beat FC St. Pauli 1-2 at Millerntor-Stadion, Regular Season - 31, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC St. Pauli 1.49 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.27 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC St. Pauli attack 1.11 / defence 1.02 against SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.87 / defence 1.19, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC St. Pauli 40% | Draw 31% | SV Darmstadt 98 30%, with FC St. Pauli to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual SV Darmstadt 98 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC St. Pauli 67%, SV Darmstadt 98 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC St. Pauli 1.77 PPG, SV Darmstadt 98 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SV Darmstadt 98 win broke the near-deadlock. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.36 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.