FC St. Pauli 4-0 Hansa Rostock – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC St. Pauli at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC St. Pauli vs Hansa Rostock encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Hansa Rostock travel to Millerntor-Stadion to take on FC St. Pauli. The game is scheduled for Sunday 24 October 2021, 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC St. Pauli stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC St. Pauli's form when playing at home: 5W 0D 0L across 5 games at Millerntor-Stadion this term (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 clean sheets from 5 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Millerntor-Stadion. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.20 — FC St. Pauli are significantly better at Millerntor-Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Hansa Rostock have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hansa Rostock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hansa Rostock's away record: 2W 1D 2L from 5 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, FC St. Pauli have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Profile
FC St. Pauli in-play tendencies (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Hansa Rostock in-play tendencies (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC St. Pauli 50% versus Hansa Rostock 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC St. Pauli 70% | Hansa Rostock 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC St. Pauli 1.83 xG and Hansa Rostock 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC St. Pauli attack 1.492 / defence 0.922 | Hansa Rostock attack 0.809 / defence 1.079. League average goals — home 1.137 / away 1.373. FC St. Pauli carry an above-average attack strength of 1.492 — their λ of 1.83 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 10 FC St. Pauli games / 10 Hansa Rostock games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 53% | Draw 29% | Hansa Rostock 18%. Fair-value odds: FC St. Pauli 1.89 | Draw 3.45 | Hansa Rostock 5.56. FC St. Pauli hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC St. Pauli are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC St. Pauli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.85 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: FC St. Pauli 40% | Hansa Rostock 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC St. Pauli vs Hansa Rostock | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Millerntor-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Oct 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 53% | Draw 29% | Hansa Rostock 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG FC St. Pauli 1.83 / Hansa Rostock 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: FC St. Pauli attack 1.492 / def 0.922 | Hansa Rostock attack 0.809 / def 1.079 | league avg home 1.137 / away 1.373 • Poisson stance: FC St. Pauli (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
FC St. Pauli xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Hansa Rostock xG
57%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC St. Pauli vs Hansa Rostock kick off?
FC St. Pauli vs Hansa Rostock kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 24 October 2021 at Millerntor-Stadion.
What was the final score in FC St. Pauli vs Hansa Rostock?
FC St. Pauli 4 - 0 Hansa Rostock.
Where is FC St. Pauli vs Hansa Rostock being played?
The match is being played at Millerntor-Stadion.
What competition is FC St. Pauli vs Hansa Rostock part of?
FC St. Pauli vs Hansa Rostock is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC St. Pauli vs Hansa Rostock?
Our statistical model gives FC St. Pauli a 53% chance of winning, Hansa Rostock a 18% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making FC St. Pauli the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC St. Pauli vs Hansa Rostock?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both FC St. Pauli and Hansa Rostock will score (BTTS).
Will FC St. Pauli vs Hansa Rostock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and Hansa Rostock?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC St. Pauli and Hansa Rostock in?
FC St. Pauli (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Hansa Rostock (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC St. Pauli's attack rating (1.49) and Hansa Rostock's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.83 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hansa Rostock's attack versus FC St. Pauli's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC St. Pauli Win
53%
1.89
29%
3.41
18%
5.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
FC St. Pauli xG
Total xG
2.85
1.02
Hansa Rostock xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
5.65
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
16%
6.23
Win to Nil
19%
5.25
3%
35.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 10.8 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC St. Pauli vs Hansa Rostock?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are FC St. Pauli and Hansa Rostock expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for FC St. Pauli and 1.02 for Hansa Rostock, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for FC St. Pauli vs Hansa Rostock?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC St. Pauli come into this having played 10 games, going 7W 1D 2L for 2.20 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-W. The sample for FC St. Pauli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hansa Rostock sit at 1.10 PPG from 10 outings (3W 2D 5L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Hansa Rostock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC St. Pauli carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.10 PPG clear of Hansa Rostock — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
FC St. Pauli's home form reads 5W 0D 0L across 5 games on their own ground, a 3.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.20 PPG overall — FC St. Pauli are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Hansa Rostock have taken 1.40 points per game from 5 outings (2W 1D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC St. Pauli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC St. Pauli are averaging 2.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Hansa Rostock are on 1.10 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Defensively: FC St. Pauli have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC St. Pauli
Blended
Hansa Rostock
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC St. Pauli and Hansa Rostock in coming into this match?
FC St. Pauli have gone 7W 1D 2L in their last 10 games (2.20 PPG), while Hansa Rostock have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC St. Pauli at home or Hansa Rostock away?
FC St. Pauli's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC St. Pauli at home: 3.00 PPG; Hansa Rostock away: 1.40 PPG.
Have FC St. Pauli or Hansa Rostock been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC St. Pauli have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Hansa Rostock in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
FC St. Pauli have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Oct 2021, when FC St. Pauli won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC St. Pauli's record when hosting Hansa Rostock specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
FC St. Pauli
0
Draws
2
Hansa Rostock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and Hansa Rostock?
From 6 meetings on record, FC St. Pauli have won 4, Hansa Rostock have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC St. Pauli and Hansa Rostock last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2024, when FC St. Pauli 1-0 Hansa Rostock.
Who has won more matches between FC St. Pauli and Hansa Rostock?
FC St. Pauli have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Hansa Rostock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — FC St. Pauli 40% BTTS, Hansa Rostock 20%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for FC St. Pauli and 40% for Hansa Rostock. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC St. Pauli keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Hansa Rostock in 40%; Hansa Rostock in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC St. Pauli home games / Hansa Rostock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC St. Pauli play Hansa Rostock?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of FC St. Pauli's recent matches and 20% of Hansa Rostock's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC St. Pauli vs Hansa Rostock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of FC St. Pauli's matches and 40% of Hansa Rostock's.
Do FC St. Pauli and Hansa Rostock tend to score early?
FC St. Pauli have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Hansa Rostock in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC St. Pauli run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Hansa Rostock.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC St. Pauli beat Hansa Rostock 4-0 at Millerntor-Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC St. Pauli 1.83 xG and Hansa Rostock 1.02 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. FC St. Pauli beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hansa Rostock landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC St. Pauli attack 1.49 / defence 0.92 against Hansa Rostock attack 0.81 / defence 1.08, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC St. Pauli 53% | Draw 29% | Hansa Rostock 18%, with FC St. Pauli to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC St. Pauli 70%, Hansa Rostock 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Hansa Rostock's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, FC St. Pauli arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 1.10. That form edge translated into the three points. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 3.00 average — above their attacking norm. Hansa Rostock (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.