FC St. Pauli 3-2 Hamburger SV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hamburger SV at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC St. Pauli vs Hamburger SV fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 3 as FC St. Pauli welcome Hamburger SV to Millerntor-Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 13 August 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC St. Pauli stand at 1W 1D 0L from 2 2. Bundesliga matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 2 games (100%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. FC St. Pauli have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hamburger SV — All Games: 1W 1D 0L from 2 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Hamburger SV have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC St. Pauli 2.00 PPG, Hamburger SV 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC St. Pauli 1.24 xG and Hamburger SV 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC St. Pauli attack 1.256 / defence 0.992 | Hamburger SV attack 1.028 / defence 1.156. League average goals — home 0.852 / away 1.394. FC St. Pauli carry an above-average attack strength of 1.256 — their λ of 1.24 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 2 FC St. Pauli games / 2 Hamburger SV games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 29% | Draw 33% | Hamburger SV 38%. Fair-value odds: FC St. Pauli 3.45 | Draw 3.03 | Hamburger SV 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hamburger SV as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hamburger SV offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC St. Pauli vs Hamburger SV | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Millerntor-Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 13 Aug 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 29% | Draw 33% | Hamburger SV 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 58% | xG FC St. Pauli 1.24 / Hamburger SV 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: FC St. Pauli attack 1.256 / def 0.992 | Hamburger SV attack 1.028 / def 1.156 | league avg home 0.852 / away 1.394 • Poisson stance: Hamburger SV (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
FC St. Pauli xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Hamburger SV xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC St. Pauli vs Hamburger SV kick off?
FC St. Pauli vs Hamburger SV kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 13 August 2021 at Millerntor-Stadion.
What was the final score in FC St. Pauli vs Hamburger SV?
FC St. Pauli 3 - 2 Hamburger SV.
Where is FC St. Pauli vs Hamburger SV being played?
The match is being played at Millerntor-Stadion.
What competition is FC St. Pauli vs Hamburger SV part of?
FC St. Pauli vs Hamburger SV is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC St. Pauli vs Hamburger SV?
Our statistical model gives FC St. Pauli a 29% chance of winning, Hamburger SV a 38% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Hamburger SV the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC St. Pauli vs Hamburger SV?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both FC St. Pauli and Hamburger SV will score (BTTS).
Will FC St. Pauli vs Hamburger SV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and Hamburger SV?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC St. Pauli and Hamburger SV in?
FC St. Pauli (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.00 | L5 W-D. Hamburger SV (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC St. Pauli's attacking strength (1.26x league average) is weighed against Hamburger SV's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. The same calculation in reverse, Hamburger SV's attack versus FC St. Pauli's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hamburger SV Win
29%
3.44
33%
3.00
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
FC St. Pauli xG
Total xG
2.66
1.42
Hamburger SV xG
3.44
29%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
7%
14.26
11%
9.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 10.0 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.3 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.6 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC St. Pauli vs Hamburger SV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are FC St. Pauli and Hamburger SV expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for FC St. Pauli and 1.42 for Hamburger SV, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for FC St. Pauli vs Hamburger SV?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC St. Pauli come into this having played 2 games, going 1W 1D 0L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-D. It's still early in the season for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Hamburger SV sit at 2.00 PPG from 2 outings (1W 1D 0L), a run that reads W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Hamburger SV, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC St. Pauli on 2.00 PPG, Hamburger SV on 2.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
FC St. Pauli are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Hamburger SV are on 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Hamburger SV's attacking output running into FC St. Pauli's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: FC St. Pauli have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Hamburger SV in 100%.
Defensively: FC St. Pauli have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC St. Pauli
Early Season
Hamburger SV
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC St. Pauli and Hamburger SV in coming into this match?
FC St. Pauli have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 games (2.00 PPG), while Hamburger SV have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 (2.00 PPG).
Have FC St. Pauli or Hamburger SV been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC St. Pauli have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Hamburger SV in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC St. Pauli and Hamburger SV runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — 2. Bundesliga, Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 23 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Oct 2022, when FC St. Pauli won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC St. Pauli's record when hosting Hamburger SV specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
FC St. Pauli
2
Draws
3
Hamburger SV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and Hamburger SV?
From 8 meetings on record, FC St. Pauli have won 3, Hamburger SV have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC St. Pauli and Hamburger SV last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2026, when FC St. Pauli 0-0 Hamburger SV.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC St. Pauli home games / Hamburger SV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC St. Pauli play Hamburger SV?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of FC St. Pauli's recent matches and 100% of Hamburger SV's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC St. Pauli vs Hamburger SV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of FC St. Pauli's recent games and 50% of Hamburger SV's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC St. Pauli and Hamburger SV tend to score early?
FC St. Pauli have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Hamburger SV in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC St. Pauli defy the odds to beat Hamburger SV 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC St. Pauli beat Hamburger SV 3-2 at Millerntor-Stadion, Regular Season - 3, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC St. Pauli 1.24 xG and Hamburger SV 1.42 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. FC St. Pauli beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC St. Pauli attack 1.26 / defence 0.99 against Hamburger SV attack 1.03 / defence 1.16, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it FC St. Pauli 29% | Draw 33% | Hamburger SV 38%, with Hamburger SV to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual FC St. Pauli win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC St. Pauli 50%, Hamburger SV 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC St. Pauli 2.00 PPG, Hamburger SV 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC St. Pauli win broke the near-deadlock. FC St. Pauli scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hamburger SV shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.