FC St. Pauli 2-1 FC Schalke 04 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC St. Pauli at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC St. Pauli vs FC Schalke 04 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC St. Pauli and FC Schalke 04 meet at Millerntor-Stadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 4 December 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC St. Pauli have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W D L W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC St. Pauli's form when playing at home: 7W 0D 0L across 7 games at Millerntor-Stadion this term (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.14 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 clean sheets from 7 home games (57%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Millerntor-Stadion. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.20 — FC St. Pauli are significantly better at Millerntor-Stadion than their overall form suggests.
FC Schalke 04 (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W L L D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for FC Schalke 04, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Schalke 04 away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.20 for FC St. Pauli, 1.90 for FC Schalke 04 — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
FC St. Pauli goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 60%.
FC Schalke 04 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC St. Pauli 53% versus FC Schalke 04 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC St. Pauli 73% | FC Schalke 04 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC St. Pauli 1.74 xG and FC Schalke 04 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC St. Pauli attack 1.506 / defence 0.883 | FC Schalke 04 attack 0.800 / defence 0.932. League average goals — home 1.237 / away 1.309. FC St. Pauli carry an above-average attack strength of 1.506 — their λ of 1.74 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 15 FC St. Pauli games / 15 FC Schalke 04 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 53% | Draw 30% | FC Schalke 04 16%. Fair-value odds: FC St. Pauli 1.89 | Draw 3.33 | FC Schalke 04 6.25. FC St. Pauli hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC St. Pauli at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC St. Pauli if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: FC St. Pauli 43% | FC Schalke 04 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC St. Pauli vs FC Schalke 04 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Millerntor-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Dec 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 53% | Draw 30% | FC Schalke 04 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG FC St. Pauli 1.74 / FC Schalke 04 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: FC St. Pauli attack 1.506 / def 0.883 | FC Schalke 04 attack 0.800 / def 0.932 | league avg home 1.237 / away 1.309 • Poisson stance: FC St. Pauli (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
FC St. Pauli xG
Expected Goals
0.92
FC Schalke 04 xG
53%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC St. Pauli vs FC Schalke 04 kick off?
FC St. Pauli vs FC Schalke 04 kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 4 December 2021 at Millerntor-Stadion.
What was the final score in FC St. Pauli vs FC Schalke 04?
FC St. Pauli 2 - 1 FC Schalke 04.
Where is FC St. Pauli vs FC Schalke 04 being played?
The match is being played at Millerntor-Stadion.
What competition is FC St. Pauli vs FC Schalke 04 part of?
FC St. Pauli vs FC Schalke 04 is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC St. Pauli vs FC Schalke 04?
Our statistical model gives FC St. Pauli a 53% chance of winning, FC Schalke 04 a 16% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making FC St. Pauli the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC St. Pauli vs FC Schalke 04?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both FC St. Pauli and FC Schalke 04 will score (BTTS).
Will FC St. Pauli vs FC Schalke 04 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and FC Schalke 04?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC St. Pauli and FC Schalke 04 in?
FC St. Pauli (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. FC Schalke 04 (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from FC St. Pauli's attack rating (1.51) and FC Schalke 04's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.74 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Schalke 04's attack (0.80x) against FC St. Pauli's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 2-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC St. Pauli Win
53%
1.88
30%
3.30
16%
6.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
FC St. Pauli xG
Total xG
2.66
0.92
FC Schalke 04 xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
6.06
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
18%
5.68
Win to Nil
21%
4.74
3%
34.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.1 | 11.2 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.7 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC St. Pauli vs FC Schalke 04?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are FC St. Pauli and FC Schalke 04 expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for FC St. Pauli and 0.92 for FC Schalke 04, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for FC St. Pauli vs FC Schalke 04?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC St. Pauli's recent record stands at 10W 2D 3L from 15 games, a 2.13 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for FC St. Pauli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Schalke 04, meanwhile, have gone 8W 2D 5L across 15 games — 1.73 PPG, with W-L-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for FC Schalke 04 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.13 PPG for FC St. Pauli against 1.73 for FC Schalke 04. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, FC St. Pauli have managed 7W 0D 0L from 7 games — 3.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 2.13 PPG overall — FC St. Pauli are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
FC Schalke 04's away record stands at 4W 1D 2L across 7 trips, a 1.86 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC St. Pauli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC St. Pauli are averaging 2.27 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; FC Schalke 04 are on 1.87 scored and 1.27 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
Defensively: FC Schalke 04 in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC St. Pauli
Blended
FC Schalke 04
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC St. Pauli and FC Schalke 04 in coming into this match?
FC St. Pauli have gone 10W 2D 3L in their last 15 games (2.13 PPG), while FC Schalke 04 have gone 8W 2D 5L in their last 15 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC St. Pauli at home or FC Schalke 04 away?
FC St. Pauli's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC St. Pauli at home: 3.00 PPG; FC Schalke 04 away: 1.86 PPG.
Have FC St. Pauli or FC Schalke 04 been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC St. Pauli have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, FC Schalke 04 in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC St. Pauli have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against FC Schalke 04 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
FC St. Pauli
0
Draws
2
FC Schalke 04
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and FC Schalke 04?
From 4 meetings on record, FC St. Pauli have won 2, FC Schalke 04 have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC St. Pauli and FC Schalke 04 last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2024, when FC Schalke 04 3-1 FC St. Pauli.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 71% of the time.
FC Schalke 04 see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC St. Pauli 43%, FC Schalke 04 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 86% (FC St. Pauli) and 29% (FC Schalke 04). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC St. Pauli keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; FC Schalke 04 in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC St. Pauli home games / FC Schalke 04 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC St. Pauli play FC Schalke 04?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of FC St. Pauli's recent matches and 29% of FC Schalke 04's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC St. Pauli vs FC Schalke 04 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 86% of FC St. Pauli's matches and 29% of FC Schalke 04's.
Do FC St. Pauli and FC Schalke 04 tend to score early?
FC St. Pauli have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, FC Schalke 04 in 43% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC St. Pauli edge out FC Schalke 04 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC St. Pauli beat FC Schalke 04 2-1 at Millerntor-Stadion, Regular Season - 16, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC St. Pauli 1.74 xG and FC Schalke 04 0.92 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC St. Pauli attack 1.51 / defence 0.88 against FC Schalke 04 attack 0.80 / defence 0.93, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC St. Pauli 53% | Draw 30% | FC Schalke 04 16%, with FC St. Pauli to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC St. Pauli 73%, FC Schalke 04 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Schalke 04's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC St. Pauli 2.13 PPG, FC Schalke 04 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC St. Pauli win broke the near-deadlock. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.14 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Schalke 04 (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.