FC St. Pauli 1-2 Eintracht Braunschweig – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC St. Pauli at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC St. Pauli vs Eintracht Braunschweig encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Millerntor-Stadion plays host to FC St. Pauli versus Eintracht Braunschweig in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Sunday 16 April 2023 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC St. Pauli have collected 3.00 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 10W 0D 0L. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.30 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC St. Pauli at Millerntor-Stadion this season: 6W 4D 0L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Millerntor-Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.20 lags behind their overall 3.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Millerntor-Stadion this season.
Eintracht Braunschweig's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Braunschweig, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, Eintracht Braunschweig have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward FC St. Pauli. A 1.90 PPG lead over Eintracht Braunschweig (3.00 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — FC St. Pauli lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Oct 2022, ended 1–2 with Eintracht Braunschweig winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
FC St. Pauli half-time and goal-timing data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Eintracht Braunschweig half-time and goal-timing data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC St. Pauli 44% versus Eintracht Braunschweig 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC St. Pauli 48% | Eintracht Braunschweig 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC St. Pauli 1.75 xG and Eintracht Braunschweig 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC St. Pauli attack 0.918 / defence 0.660 | Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.821 / defence 1.257. League average goals — home 1.516 / away 1.284. Eintracht Braunschweig bring a strong defensive rating of 1.257 — this is suppressing FC St. Pauli's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. FC St. Pauli's defence rating of 0.660 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 61 FC St. Pauli games / 27 Eintracht Braunschweig games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 63% | Draw 23% | Eintracht Braunschweig 14%. Fair-value odds: FC St. Pauli 1.59 | Draw 4.35 | Eintracht Braunschweig 7.14. The model has a clear lean to FC St. Pauli (63%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC St. Pauli at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: FC St. Pauli 30% | Eintracht Braunschweig 80%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC St. Pauli vs Eintracht Braunschweig | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Millerntor-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Apr 2023, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 63% | Draw 23% | Eintracht Braunschweig 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 41% | xG FC St. Pauli 1.75 / Eintracht Braunschweig 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: FC St. Pauli attack 0.918 / def 0.660 | Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.821 / def 1.257 | league avg home 1.516 / away 1.284 • Poisson stance: FC St. Pauli (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
FC St. Pauli xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
41%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC St. Pauli vs Eintracht Braunschweig kick off?
FC St. Pauli vs Eintracht Braunschweig kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 16 April 2023 at Millerntor-Stadion.
What was the final score in FC St. Pauli vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
FC St. Pauli 1 - 2 Eintracht Braunschweig.
Where is FC St. Pauli vs Eintracht Braunschweig being played?
The match is being played at Millerntor-Stadion.
What competition is FC St. Pauli vs Eintracht Braunschweig part of?
FC St. Pauli vs Eintracht Braunschweig is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC St. Pauli vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our statistical model gives FC St. Pauli a 63% chance of winning, Eintracht Braunschweig a 14% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making FC St. Pauli the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC St. Pauli vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both FC St. Pauli and Eintracht Braunschweig will score (BTTS).
Will FC St. Pauli vs Eintracht Braunschweig have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and Eintracht Braunschweig?
Record (1 meetings): FC St. Pauli 0W | Draws 0 | Eintracht Braunschweig 1W.
What form are FC St. Pauli and Eintracht Braunschweig in?
FC St. Pauli (all comps): 10W-0D-0L in 10 | 3.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Eintracht Braunschweig (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from FC St. Pauli's attack rating (0.92) and Eintracht Braunschweig's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.75 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Eintracht Braunschweig's attack (0.82x) against FC St. Pauli's defence (0.66x) — and the away total comes out at 0.70.
These ratings are built from 61/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.3%), 1-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC St. Pauli Win
63%
1.60
23%
4.36
14%
6.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.3%
Home win
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
FC St. Pauli xG
Total xG
2.45
0.70
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
1.60
63%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
6.93
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.41
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
50%
2.01
17%
5.75
Win to Nil
31%
3.20
3%
39.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.2 | 10.6 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.3 | 9.2 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.7 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC St. Pauli vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are FC St. Pauli and Eintracht Braunschweig expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for FC St. Pauli and 0.70 for Eintracht Braunschweig, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for FC St. Pauli vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC St. Pauli come into this having played 27 games, going 13W 8D 6L for 1.74 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. The sample for FC St. Pauli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Eintracht Braunschweig sit at 1.07 PPG from 27 outings (7W 8D 12L), a run that reads D-L-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Eintracht Braunschweig is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC St. Pauli carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Eintracht Braunschweig — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
FC St. Pauli's home form reads 8W 5D 0L across 13 games on their own ground, a 2.23 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.74 PPG overall — FC St. Pauli are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Eintracht Braunschweig have taken 0.62 points per game from 13 outings (1W 5D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.07 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Eintracht Braunschweig's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC St. Pauli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC St. Pauli are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Braunschweig are on 1.19 scored and 1.63 conceded.
Defensively: FC St. Pauli have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC St. Pauli
Blended
Eintracht Braunschweig
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC St. Pauli and Eintracht Braunschweig in coming into this match?
FC St. Pauli have gone 13W 8D 6L in their last 27 games (1.74 PPG), while Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 7W 8D 12L in their last 27 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC St. Pauli at home or Eintracht Braunschweig away?
FC St. Pauli's home record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC St. Pauli at home: 2.23 PPG; Eintracht Braunschweig away: 0.62 PPG.
Have FC St. Pauli or Eintracht Braunschweig been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC St. Pauli have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Eintracht Braunschweig in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC St. Pauli have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Eintracht Braunschweig — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
FC St. Pauli
1
Draws
2
Eintracht Braunschweig
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and Eintracht Braunschweig?
From 4 meetings on record, FC St. Pauli have won 1, Eintracht Braunschweig have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC St. Pauli and Eintracht Braunschweig last play each other?
They last met on 18 February 2024, when FC St. Pauli 1-0 Eintracht Braunschweig.
Who has won more matches between FC St. Pauli and Eintracht Braunschweig?
Eintracht Braunschweig have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Eintracht Braunschweig see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC St. Pauli 38%, Eintracht Braunschweig 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (FC St. Pauli) and 54% (Eintracht Braunschweig).
On the defensive side: FC St. Pauli keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC St. Pauli home games / Eintracht Braunschweig away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC St. Pauli play Eintracht Braunschweig?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of FC St. Pauli's recent matches and 69% of Eintracht Braunschweig's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC St. Pauli vs Eintracht Braunschweig usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of FC St. Pauli's recent games and 54% of Eintracht Braunschweig's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC St. Pauli and Eintracht Braunschweig tend to score early?
FC St. Pauli have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Eintracht Braunschweig in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Eintracht Braunschweig defy the odds to beat FC St. Pauli 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eintracht Braunschweig beat FC St. Pauli 1-2 at Millerntor-Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC St. Pauli 1.75 xG and Eintracht Braunschweig 0.70 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Eintracht Braunschweig outscored their 0.70 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC St. Pauli attack 0.92 / defence 0.66 against Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.82 / defence 1.26, drawn from 61/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC St. Pauli 63% | Draw 23% | Eintracht Braunschweig 14%, with FC St. Pauli to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a Eintracht Braunschweig win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC St. Pauli 48%, Eintracht Braunschweig 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Eintracht Braunschweig's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC St. Pauli arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.07. Form was overturned, with Eintracht Braunschweig winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.54 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Eintracht Braunschweig (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.