FC Ingolstadt 04 1-2 Fortuna Düsseldorf – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fortuna Düsseldorf at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC Ingolstadt 04 and Fortuna Düsseldorf meet at Audi-Sportpark in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 25 September 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
FC Ingolstadt 04 (all games): 1W 1D 5L across 7 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 0.57 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 0.71 goals per game and conceding 2.57 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.57 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. FC Ingolstadt 04 have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Ingolstadt 04's form when playing at home: 0W 1D 2L across 3 games at Audi-Sportpark this term (0.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game.
Fortuna Düsseldorf have collected 1.14 PPG across 7 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 2D 3L. Last five: L D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.29 per game is modest, conceding 1.57 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Fortuna Düsseldorf have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, Fortuna Düsseldorf have posted 2W 0D 2L from 4 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Fortuna Düsseldorf are 0.57 PPG clear of FC Ingolstadt 04 in recent 2. Bundesliga fixtures (1.14 vs 0.57). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading Data
FC Ingolstadt 04 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games; they fail to score in 43% of games.
Fortuna Düsseldorf goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Ingolstadt 04 43% versus Fortuna Düsseldorf 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Ingolstadt 04 71% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Ingolstadt 04 0.91 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 0.678 / defence 1.218 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.709 / defence 1.238. League average goals — home 1.083 / away 1.390. FC Ingolstadt 04's attack strength of 0.678 is below the league average — the 0.91 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Fortuna Düsseldorf bring a strong defensive rating of 1.238 — this is suppressing FC Ingolstadt 04's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 FC Ingolstadt 04 games / 7 Fortuna Düsseldorf games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Ingolstadt 04 25% | Draw 35% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 40%. Fair-value odds: FC Ingolstadt 04 4.00 | Draw 2.86 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fortuna Düsseldorf are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fortuna Düsseldorf if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.11 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: FC Ingolstadt 04 33% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 25% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Audi-Sportpark • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Sep 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Ingolstadt 04 25% | Draw 35% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 45% | xG FC Ingolstadt 04 0.91 / Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 0.678 / def 1.218 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.709 / def 1.238 | league avg home 1.083 / away 1.390 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Düsseldorf (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
FC Ingolstadt 04 xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kick off?
FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 25 September 2021 at Audi-Sportpark.
What was the final score in FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
FC Ingolstadt 04 1 - 2 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Where is FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf being played?
The match is being played at Audi-Sportpark.
What competition is FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf part of?
FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our statistical model gives FC Ingolstadt 04 a 25% chance of winning, Fortuna Düsseldorf a 40% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Düsseldorf the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both FC Ingolstadt 04 and Fortuna Düsseldorf will score (BTTS).
Will FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Ingolstadt 04 and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Ingolstadt 04 and Fortuna Düsseldorf in?
FC Ingolstadt 04 (all comps): 1W-1D-5L in 7 | 0.57 PPG | GF 0.71 / GA 2.57 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 2W-2D-3L in 7 | 1.14 PPG | GF 1.29 / GA 1.57 | L5 L-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FC Ingolstadt 04's attack at 0.68x the league average against Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 0.91 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack (0.71x) against FC Ingolstadt 04's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 0-1 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Düsseldorf Win
25%
4.03
35%
2.82
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
FC Ingolstadt 04 xG
Total xG
2.11
1.20
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
4.03
25%
Home win
2.82
35%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
40%
2.48
Win to Nil
7%
13.38
16%
6.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 14.6 | 8.7 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.2 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are FC Ingolstadt 04 and Fortuna Düsseldorf expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for FC Ingolstadt 04 and 1.20 for Fortuna Düsseldorf, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 7 outings, FC Ingolstadt 04 have picked up 0.57 PPG on a 1W 1D 5L record — L-D-W-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for FC Ingolstadt 04, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's form line: 2W 2D 3L from 7 games, 1.14 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Fortuna Düsseldorf, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Fortuna Düsseldorf are the form team by 0.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Ingolstadt 04.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, FC Ingolstadt 04 have posted 0.33 PPG from 3 outings (0W 1D 2L).
On the road, Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fortuna Düsseldorf come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Ingolstadt 04 are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 2.57 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Düsseldorf are on 1.29 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 7 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Ingolstadt 04
Early Season
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Ingolstadt 04 and Fortuna Düsseldorf in coming into this match?
FC Ingolstadt 04 have gone 1W 1D 5L in their last 7 games (0.57 PPG), while Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 2W 2D 3L in their last 7 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Ingolstadt 04 at home or Fortuna Düsseldorf away?
Fortuna Düsseldorf's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Ingolstadt 04 at home: 0.33 PPG; Fortuna Düsseldorf away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
FC Ingolstadt 04
0
Draws
2
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Ingolstadt 04 and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
From 2 meetings on record, FC Ingolstadt 04 have won 0, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Ingolstadt 04 and Fortuna Düsseldorf last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2022, when Fortuna Düsseldorf 3-0 FC Ingolstadt 04.
Who has won more matches between FC Ingolstadt 04 and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Ingolstadt 04 see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (FC Ingolstadt 04) and 33% (Fortuna Düsseldorf) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (FC Ingolstadt 04) and 33% (Fortuna Düsseldorf).
On the defensive side: FC Ingolstadt 04 keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Fortuna Düsseldorf in 33%; FC Ingolstadt 04 have failed to score in 67% of games; Fortuna Düsseldorf in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Ingolstadt 04 home games / Fortuna Düsseldorf away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Ingolstadt 04 play Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of FC Ingolstadt 04's recent matches and 33% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of FC Ingolstadt 04's recent games and 33% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Ingolstadt 04 and Fortuna Düsseldorf tend to score early?
FC Ingolstadt 04 have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Fortuna Düsseldorf in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fortuna Düsseldorf edge out FC Ingolstadt 04 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Düsseldorf beat FC Ingolstadt 04 1-2 at Audi-Sportpark, Regular Season - 8, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Ingolstadt 04 0.91 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.20 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 0.68 / defence 1.22 against Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.71 / defence 1.24, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Ingolstadt 04 25% | Draw 35% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 40%, with Fortuna Düsseldorf to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Ingolstadt 04 71%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Ingolstadt 04's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fortuna Düsseldorf arrived the stronger side — 1.14 PPG against 0.57. That form edge translated into the three points. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.