1. FC Heidenheim 1-0 SV Darmstadt 98 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Heidenheim at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Darmstadt 98 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
1. FC Heidenheim host SV Darmstadt 98 at Voith-Arena in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 4 March 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
1. FC Heidenheim — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: W L D W W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Heidenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Heidenheim's home record at Voith-Arena: 7W 3D 0L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SV Darmstadt 98 have recorded 6W 4D 0L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, SV Darmstadt 98 have posted 7W 2D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — 1. FC Heidenheim at 2.30 PPG versus SV Darmstadt 98's 2.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 1, SV Darmstadt 98 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
1. FC Heidenheim in-play and half-time data (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games).
SV Darmstadt 98 in-play and half-time data (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Heidenheim 52% versus SV Darmstadt 98 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Heidenheim 55% | SV Darmstadt 98 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Heidenheim 1.72 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.628 / defence 1.039 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.212 / defence 0.746. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 1.242. 1. FC Heidenheim carry an above-average attack strength of 1.628 — their λ of 1.72 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. SV Darmstadt 98's defence strength of 0.746 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. SV Darmstadt 98 have an above-average attack strength of 1.212 — the away xG of 1.56 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 56 1. FC Heidenheim games / 56 SV Darmstadt 98 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 42% | Draw 23% | SV Darmstadt 98 35%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Heidenheim 2.38 | Draw 4.35 | SV Darmstadt 98 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.72 / 1.56) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, 1. FC Heidenheim are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1. FC Heidenheim offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.28 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Heidenheim 70% | SV Darmstadt 98 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Darmstadt 98 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Voith-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Mar 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 42% | Draw 23% | SV Darmstadt 98 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG 1. FC Heidenheim 1.72 / SV Darmstadt 98 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.628 / def 1.039 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.212 / def 0.746 | league avg home 1.412 / away 1.242 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Heidenheim (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Expected Goals
1.56
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Darmstadt 98 kick off?
1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Darmstadt 98 kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 4 March 2023 at Voith-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Darmstadt 98?
1. FC Heidenheim 1 - 0 SV Darmstadt 98.
Where is 1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Darmstadt 98 being played?
The match is being played at Voith-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Darmstadt 98 part of?
1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Darmstadt 98 is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Heidenheim a 42% chance of winning, SV Darmstadt 98 a 35% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Heidenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both 1. FC Heidenheim and SV Darmstadt 98 will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Darmstadt 98 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and SV Darmstadt 98?
Record (3 meetings): 1. FC Heidenheim 1W | Draws 1 | SV Darmstadt 98 1W.
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and SV Darmstadt 98 in?
1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
1. FC Heidenheim's attacking strength (1.63x league average) is weighed against SV Darmstadt 98's defensive record (0.75x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.72. The same calculation in reverse, SV Darmstadt 98's attack versus 1. FC Heidenheim's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Heidenheim Win
42%
2.40
23%
4.34
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Total xG
3.28
1.56
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
2.40
42%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.84
Clean Sheet
21%
4.77
18%
5.56
Win to Nil
9%
11.44
6%
15.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.9 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.1 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.7 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are 1. FC Heidenheim and SV Darmstadt 98 expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for 1. FC Heidenheim and 1.56 for SV Darmstadt 98, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
1. FC Heidenheim's recent record stands at 27W 14D 15L from 56 games, a 1.70 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for 1. FC Heidenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SV Darmstadt 98, meanwhile, have gone 32W 13D 11L across 56 games — 1.95 PPG, with W-W-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for SV Darmstadt 98 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: 1. FC Heidenheim on 1.70 PPG, SV Darmstadt 98 on 1.95. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, 1. FC Heidenheim have managed 18W 6D 3L from 27 games — 2.22 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.70 PPG overall — 1. FC Heidenheim are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
SV Darmstadt 98's away record stands at 15W 5D 7L across 27 trips, a 1.85 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
1. FC Heidenheim are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; SV Darmstadt 98 are on 1.93 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: SV Darmstadt 98 in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Heidenheim
Blended
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and SV Darmstadt 98 in coming into this match?
1. FC Heidenheim have gone 27W 14D 15L in their last 56 games (1.70 PPG), while SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 32W 13D 11L in their last 56 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Heidenheim at home or SV Darmstadt 98 away?
1. FC Heidenheim's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Heidenheim at home: 2.22 PPG; SV Darmstadt 98 away: 1.85 PPG.
Have 1. FC Heidenheim or SV Darmstadt 98 been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Heidenheim have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, SV Darmstadt 98 in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between 1. FC Heidenheim and SV Darmstadt 98 runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — 2. Bundesliga, Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
1. FC Heidenheim go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
1. FC Heidenheim's record when hosting SV Darmstadt 98 specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
1. FC Heidenheim
1
Draws
1
SV Darmstadt 98
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and SV Darmstadt 98?
From 6 meetings on record, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 4, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Heidenheim and SV Darmstadt 98 last play each other?
They last met on 28 April 2024, when SV Darmstadt 98 0-1 1. FC Heidenheim.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Heidenheim and SV Darmstadt 98?
1. FC Heidenheim have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
1. FC Heidenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Heidenheim 67%, SV Darmstadt 98 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for 1. FC Heidenheim and 59% for SV Darmstadt 98. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Heidenheim home games / SV Darmstadt 98 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Heidenheim play SV Darmstadt 98?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of 1. FC Heidenheim's games and 59% of SV Darmstadt 98's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Darmstadt 98 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of 1. FC Heidenheim's matches and 59% of SV Darmstadt 98's.
Do 1. FC Heidenheim and SV Darmstadt 98 tend to score early?
1. FC Heidenheim have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, SV Darmstadt 98 in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as 1. FC Heidenheim edge out SV Darmstadt 98 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Heidenheim beat SV Darmstadt 98 1-0 at Voith-Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Heidenheim 1.72 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.56 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. SV Darmstadt 98 landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.63 / defence 1.04 against SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.21 / defence 0.75, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Heidenheim 42% | Draw 23% | SV Darmstadt 98 35%, with 1. FC Heidenheim to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Heidenheim 55%, SV Darmstadt 98 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Heidenheim 1.70 PPG, SV Darmstadt 98 1.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Heidenheim win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.15 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.70 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.