1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Darmstadt 98 – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours 1. FC Heidenheim (69%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as 1. FC Heidenheim face SV Darmstadt 98.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
1. FC Heidenheim host SV Darmstadt 98 at Voith-Arena in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 10 April 2027 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
1. FC Heidenheim — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. 1. FC Heidenheim have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
1. FC Heidenheim's home record at Voith-Arena: 5W 2D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SV Darmstadt 98 have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. SV Darmstadt 98 have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, SV Darmstadt 98 have posted 0W 3D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, 1. FC Heidenheim have the edge — a 1.40 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. 1. FC Heidenheim register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, SV Darmstadt 98 in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
1. FC Heidenheim hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 6 previous encounters compared to 1 for SV Darmstadt 98, with 1 draws in between.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Apr 2024, ended 1–0 with 1. FC Heidenheim winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both 1. FC Heidenheim and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
1. FC Heidenheim in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
SV Darmstadt 98 in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Heidenheim 62% and SV Darmstadt 98 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Heidenheim 68% | SV Darmstadt 98 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Heidenheim 2.87 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.267 / defence 1.251 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.741 / defence 1.375. League average goals — home 1.649 / away 1.446. 1. FC Heidenheim carry an above-average attack strength of 1.267 — their λ of 2.87 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. SV Darmstadt 98 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.375 — this is suppressing 1. FC Heidenheim's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 1. FC Heidenheim games / 40 SV Darmstadt 98 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 69% | Draw 16% | SV Darmstadt 98 15%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Heidenheim 1.45 | Draw 6.25 | SV Darmstadt 98 6.67. The model has a clear lean to 1. FC Heidenheim (69%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 79% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 4.21. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 79% — a total xG of 4.21 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (2.87 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, 1. FC Heidenheim are the pick at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 4.21 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 79% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Heidenheim 60% | SV Darmstadt 98 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Darmstadt 98 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Voith-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Apr 2027, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 69% | Draw 16% | SV Darmstadt 98 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 79% | BTTS 70% | xG 1. FC Heidenheim 2.87 / SV Darmstadt 98 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.267 / def 1.251 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.741 / def 1.375 | league avg home 1.649 / away 1.446 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Heidenheim (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.87
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Expected Goals
1.34
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
70%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
61%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Darmstadt 98 kick off?
1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Darmstadt 98 is scheduled to kick off at 11:30 on Saturday 10 April 2027 at Voith-Arena.
Where is 1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Darmstadt 98 being played?
The match is being played at Voith-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Darmstadt 98 part of?
1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Darmstadt 98 is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Heidenheim a 69% chance of winning, SV Darmstadt 98 a 15% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Heidenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both 1. FC Heidenheim and SV Darmstadt 98 will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Darmstadt 98 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 79%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and SV Darmstadt 98?
Record (6 meetings): 1. FC Heidenheim 4W | Draws 1 | SV Darmstadt 98 1W.
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and SV Darmstadt 98 in?
1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
1. FC Heidenheim's attacking strength (1.27x league average) is weighed against SV Darmstadt 98's defensive record (1.38x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.87. The same calculation in reverse, SV Darmstadt 98's attack versus 1. FC Heidenheim's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.2%. Close behind: 3-1 (7.8%), 1-1 (6.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Heidenheim Win
69%
1.45
16%
6.38
15%
6.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.8%
Home win
2 – 0
6.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.87
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Total xG
4.21
1.34
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
1.45
69%
Home win
6.38
16%
Draw
6.54
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
79%
Over 2.5
1.27
21%
Under 2.5
4.76
61%
Over 3.5
1.64
39%
Under 3.5
2.56
41%
Over 4.5
2.44
59%
Under 4.5
1.69
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.44
30%
BTTS No
3.30
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
6%
17.69
Win to Nil
18%
5.54
1%
115.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 5.7 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.2 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 7.8 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 4.2 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.2%.
How many goals are 1. FC Heidenheim and SV Darmstadt 98 expected to score?
The model projects 2.87 expected goals for 1. FC Heidenheim and 1.34 for SV Darmstadt 98, a combined total of 4.21.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
1. FC Heidenheim's recent record stands at 10W 9D 21L from 40 games, a 0.98 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for 1. FC Heidenheim, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SV Darmstadt 98, meanwhile, have gone 14W 14D 12L across 40 games — 1.40 PPG, with L-L-L-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours SV Darmstadt 98 by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over 1. FC Heidenheim heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, 1. FC Heidenheim have managed 7W 5D 8L from 20 games — 1.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SV Darmstadt 98's away record stands at 3W 8D 9L across 20 trips, a 0.85 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.40 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SV Darmstadt 98's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Heidenheim come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
1. FC Heidenheim are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game recently; SV Darmstadt 98 are on 1.55 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Heidenheim have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; SV Darmstadt 98 in 60%.
Last 40 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Heidenheim
Early Season
SV Darmstadt 98
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and SV Darmstadt 98 in coming into this match?
1. FC Heidenheim have gone 10W 9D 21L in their last 40 games (0.98 PPG), while SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 14W 14D 12L in their last 40 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Heidenheim at home or SV Darmstadt 98 away?
1. FC Heidenheim's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Heidenheim at home: 1.30 PPG; SV Darmstadt 98 away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between 1. FC Heidenheim and SV Darmstadt 98 runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — 2. Bundesliga, Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
1. FC Heidenheim go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
1. FC Heidenheim's record when hosting SV Darmstadt 98 specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
1. FC Heidenheim
1
Draws
1
SV Darmstadt 98
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and SV Darmstadt 98?
From 6 meetings on record, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 4, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Heidenheim and SV Darmstadt 98 last play each other?
They last met on 28 April 2024, when SV Darmstadt 98 0-1 1. FC Heidenheim.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Heidenheim and SV Darmstadt 98?
1. FC Heidenheim have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
1. FC Heidenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — 1. FC Heidenheim at 60%, SV Darmstadt 98 at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for 1. FC Heidenheim and 65% for SV Darmstadt 98. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Heidenheim have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Heidenheim home games / SV Darmstadt 98 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Heidenheim play SV Darmstadt 98?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of 1. FC Heidenheim's games and 70% of SV Darmstadt 98's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Darmstadt 98 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of 1. FC Heidenheim's matches and 65% of SV Darmstadt 98's.
Do 1. FC Heidenheim and SV Darmstadt 98 tend to score early?
1. FC Heidenheim have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, SV Darmstadt 98 in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.