1. FC Heidenheim 3-1 Hannover 96 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Heidenheim at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hannover 96 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Voith-Arena plays host to 1. FC Heidenheim versus Hannover 96 in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Friday 4 February 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
1. FC Heidenheim (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Heidenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Heidenheim at Voith-Arena this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Hannover 96 have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W W L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Hannover 96, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hannover 96 away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward 1. FC Heidenheim. A 0.60 PPG lead over Hannover 96 (1.90 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — 1. FC Heidenheim lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2021, ended 0–1 with Hannover 96 winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
1. FC Heidenheim goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Hannover 96 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Heidenheim 50% versus Hannover 96 35%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Heidenheim 60% | Hannover 96 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Heidenheim 1.58 xG and Hannover 96 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.097 / defence 0.993 | Hannover 96 attack 0.717 / defence 1.234. League average goals — home 1.171 / away 1.395. Hannover 96 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.234 — this is suppressing 1. FC Heidenheim's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 1. FC Heidenheim games / 20 Hannover 96 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 48% | Draw 31% | Hannover 96 21%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Heidenheim 2.08 | Draw 3.23 | Hannover 96 4.76. 1. FC Heidenheim hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates 1. FC Heidenheim as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on 1. FC Heidenheim if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: 1. FC Heidenheim 60% | Hannover 96 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hannover 96 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Voith-Arena • Kick-off: Friday 4 Feb 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 48% | Draw 31% | Hannover 96 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG 1. FC Heidenheim 1.58 / Hannover 96 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.097 / def 0.993 | Hannover 96 attack 0.717 / def 1.234 | league avg home 1.171 / away 1.395 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Heidenheim (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Hannover 96 xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hannover 96 kick off?
1. FC Heidenheim vs Hannover 96 kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 4 February 2022 at Voith-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hannover 96?
1. FC Heidenheim 3 - 1 Hannover 96.
Where is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hannover 96 being played?
The match is being played at Voith-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hannover 96 part of?
1. FC Heidenheim vs Hannover 96 is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hannover 96?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Heidenheim a 48% chance of winning, Hannover 96 a 21% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Heidenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hannover 96?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both 1. FC Heidenheim and Hannover 96 will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hannover 96 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and Hannover 96?
Record (1 meetings): 1. FC Heidenheim 0W | Draws 0 | Hannover 96 1W.
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and Hannover 96 in?
1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Hannover 96 (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from 1. FC Heidenheim's attack rating (1.10) and Hannover 96's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.58 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Hannover 96's attack (0.72x) against 1. FC Heidenheim's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 2-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Heidenheim Win
48%
2.07
31%
3.25
21%
4.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Total xG
2.58
0.99
Hannover 96 xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
4.79
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
20%
4.88
Win to Nil
18%
5.58
4%
23.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 11.9 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hannover 96?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are 1. FC Heidenheim and Hannover 96 expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for 1. FC Heidenheim and 0.99 for Hannover 96, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hannover 96?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
1. FC Heidenheim come into this having played 20 games, going 10W 4D 6L for 1.70 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-D. The sample for 1. FC Heidenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hannover 96 sit at 1.20 PPG from 20 outings (6W 6D 8L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Hannover 96 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
1. FC Heidenheim carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Hannover 96 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
1. FC Heidenheim's home form reads 6W 3D 1L across 10 games on their own ground, a 2.10 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.70 PPG overall — 1. FC Heidenheim are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Hannover 96 have taken 1.20 points per game from 10 outings (3W 3D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Heidenheim come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
1. FC Heidenheim are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Hannover 96 are on 0.75 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Defensively: Hannover 96 in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Heidenheim
Blended
Hannover 96
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and Hannover 96 in coming into this match?
1. FC Heidenheim have gone 10W 4D 6L in their last 20 games (1.70 PPG), while Hannover 96 have gone 6W 6D 8L in their last 20 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Heidenheim at home or Hannover 96 away?
1. FC Heidenheim's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Heidenheim at home: 2.10 PPG; Hannover 96 away: 1.20 PPG.
Have 1. FC Heidenheim or Hannover 96 been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Heidenheim have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Hannover 96 in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
1. FC Heidenheim go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: 1. FC Heidenheim won 0-3 on 14 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Hannover 96 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
1. FC Heidenheim
0
Draws
1
Hannover 96
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and Hannover 96?
From 4 meetings on record, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 3, Hannover 96 have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Heidenheim and Hannover 96 last play each other?
They last met on 14 April 2023, when Hannover 96 0-3 1. FC Heidenheim.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Heidenheim and Hannover 96?
1. FC Heidenheim have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
1. FC Heidenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Hannover 96 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Heidenheim 60%, Hannover 96 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (1. FC Heidenheim) and 50% (Hannover 96). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 10% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Heidenheim keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Hannover 96 in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Heidenheim home games / Hannover 96 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Heidenheim play Hannover 96?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of 1. FC Heidenheim's recent matches and 40% of Hannover 96's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hannover 96 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of 1. FC Heidenheim's matches and 50% of Hannover 96's.
Do 1. FC Heidenheim and Hannover 96 tend to score early?
1. FC Heidenheim have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Hannover 96 in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1. FC Heidenheim cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Hannover 96.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Heidenheim beat Hannover 96 3-1 at Voith-Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Heidenheim 1.58 xG and Hannover 96 0.99 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. 1. FC Heidenheim beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.10 / defence 0.99 against Hannover 96 attack 0.72 / defence 1.23, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Heidenheim 48% | Draw 31% | Hannover 96 21%, with 1. FC Heidenheim to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Heidenheim 60%, Hannover 96 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Hannover 96's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, 1. FC Heidenheim arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was vindicated by the result. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm. Hannover 96 (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.