1. FC Heidenheim 3-3 Hamburger SV – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates 1. FC Heidenheim at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hamburger SV fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 20 as 1. FC Heidenheim welcome Hamburger SV to Voith-Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 11 February 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, 1. FC Heidenheim stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Heidenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, 1. FC Heidenheim have posted 8W 2D 0L at Voith-Arena — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — 1. FC Heidenheim are significantly better at Voith-Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Hamburger SV have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hamburger SV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hamburger SV's form when playing away from home: 8W 0D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 2.40 exceeds their overall 1.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (1. FC Heidenheim) versus 1.90 (Hamburger SV). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for 1. FC Heidenheim, 2 for Hamburger SV and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 6 Aug 2022, ended 0–1 with Hamburger SV winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
1. FC Heidenheim trading profile (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Hamburger SV trading profile (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Heidenheim 53% versus Hamburger SV 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Heidenheim 55% | Hamburger SV 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Heidenheim 1.70 xG and Hamburger SV 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.367 / defence 0.937 | Hamburger SV attack 1.139 / defence 0.859. League average goals — home 1.444 / away 1.344. 1. FC Heidenheim carry an above-average attack strength of 1.367 — their λ of 1.70 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 53 1. FC Heidenheim games / 53 Hamburger SV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 44% | Draw 24% | Hamburger SV 33%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Heidenheim 2.27 | Draw 4.17 | Hamburger SV 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.70 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates 1. FC Heidenheim as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1. FC Heidenheim offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.13 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: 1. FC Heidenheim 60% | Hamburger SV 30%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hamburger SV | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Voith-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Feb 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 44% | Draw 24% | Hamburger SV 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG 1. FC Heidenheim 1.70 / Hamburger SV 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.367 / def 0.937 | Hamburger SV attack 1.139 / def 0.859 | league avg home 1.444 / away 1.344 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Heidenheim (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Hamburger SV xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hamburger SV kick off?
1. FC Heidenheim vs Hamburger SV kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 11 February 2023 at Voith-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hamburger SV?
1. FC Heidenheim 3 - 3 Hamburger SV.
Where is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hamburger SV being played?
The match is being played at Voith-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hamburger SV part of?
1. FC Heidenheim vs Hamburger SV is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hamburger SV?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Heidenheim a 44% chance of winning, Hamburger SV a 33% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Heidenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hamburger SV?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both 1. FC Heidenheim and Hamburger SV will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hamburger SV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and Hamburger SV?
Record (3 meetings): 1. FC Heidenheim 0W | Draws 1 | Hamburger SV 2W.
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and Hamburger SV in?
1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Hamburger SV (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from 1. FC Heidenheim's attack rating (1.37) and Hamburger SV's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.70 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hamburger SV's attack versus 1. FC Heidenheim's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Heidenheim Win
44%
2.28
24%
4.25
33%
3.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Total xG
3.13
1.43
Hamburger SV xG
2.28
44%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
3.07
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
24%
4.19
18%
5.45
Win to Nil
10%
9.55
6%
16.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.3 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 10.6 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.0 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.1 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hamburger SV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are 1. FC Heidenheim and Hamburger SV expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for 1. FC Heidenheim and 1.43 for Hamburger SV, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hamburger SV?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
1. FC Heidenheim come into this having played 53 games, going 25W 13D 15L for 1.66 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-L. The sample for 1. FC Heidenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hamburger SV sit at 1.87 PPG from 53 outings (29W 12D 12L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Hamburger SV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: 1. FC Heidenheim on 1.66 PPG, Hamburger SV on 1.87. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
1. FC Heidenheim's home form reads 17W 6D 3L across 26 games on their own ground, a 2.19 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.66 PPG overall — 1. FC Heidenheim are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Hamburger SV have taken 1.85 points per game from 26 outings (14W 6D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
1. FC Heidenheim are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Hamburger SV are on 1.87 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Last 53 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Heidenheim
Blended
Hamburger SV
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and Hamburger SV in coming into this match?
1. FC Heidenheim have gone 25W 13D 15L in their last 53 games (1.66 PPG), while Hamburger SV have gone 29W 12D 12L in their last 53 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Heidenheim at home or Hamburger SV away?
1. FC Heidenheim's home record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Heidenheim at home: 2.19 PPG; Hamburger SV away: 1.85 PPG.
Have 1. FC Heidenheim or Hamburger SV been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Heidenheim have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Hamburger SV in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — 2. Bundesliga, Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Hamburger SV have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
1. FC Heidenheim's record when hosting Hamburger SV specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
1. FC Heidenheim
2
Draws
4
Hamburger SV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and Hamburger SV?
From 6 meetings on record, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 0, Hamburger SV have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Heidenheim and Hamburger SV last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when 1. FC Heidenheim 0-2 Hamburger SV.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Heidenheim and Hamburger SV?
Hamburger SV have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
1. FC Heidenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Heidenheim 65%, Hamburger SV 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (1. FC Heidenheim) and 42% (Hamburger SV).
On the defensive side: 1. FC Heidenheim keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Hamburger SV in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Heidenheim home games / Hamburger SV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Heidenheim play Hamburger SV?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of 1. FC Heidenheim's games and 50% of Hamburger SV's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hamburger SV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 65% of 1. FC Heidenheim's recent games and 42% of Hamburger SV's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do 1. FC Heidenheim and Hamburger SV tend to score early?
1. FC Heidenheim have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Hamburger SV in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1. FC Heidenheim and Hamburger SV share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Heidenheim and Hamburger SV finished level at 3-3 at Voith-Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Heidenheim 1.70 xG and Hamburger SV 1.43 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. 1. FC Heidenheim beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hamburger SV outscored their 1.43 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.37 / defence 0.94 against Hamburger SV attack 1.14 / defence 0.86, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Heidenheim 44% | Draw 24% | Hamburger SV 33%, with 1. FC Heidenheim to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Heidenheim 55%, Hamburger SV 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Hamburger SV's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Heidenheim 1.66 PPG, Hamburger SV 1.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.92 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.